China’s Export Surge Reshapes Global Markets, Pressuring Competitors and Commodity Prices

China’s manufacturing sector expanded at a 5.4% year-on-year rate in November 2025, according to official data, bolstered by a 7.8% increase in export volumes. This growth has driven a 12.3% rise in the FXI index over the past quarter, reflecting strong performance in export-oriented equities. The surge in Chinese exports has disproportionately impacted trade partners in Southeast Asia and the EU, where manufacturing output declined by 0.7% and 0.5% respectively in Q3 2025, amid intensified price competition. The global trade environment has become increasingly strained, with the U.S. dollar index (DXY) reaching 108.4 by late November, reflecting capital flight from emerging markets under pressure from Chinese export competition. Meanwhile, the CRB Index, a broad measure of commodity prices, dipped 6.2% in November as demand from traditional buyers weakened. Aluminum and steel producers in India and Brazil reported declining margins, with Chinese exports of finished steel increasing by 21% year-on-year. Currency markets have reacted sharply, with the renminbi (CNY) appreciating 3.1% against the U.S. dollar over the same period, raising concerns about undervalued exchange rates. The SHH index, tracking Shanghai-listed industrial firms, rose 14.7% in 2025, underscoring domestic structural advantages in supply chain efficiency and state-backed investment. These dynamics are fueling protectionist sentiment in key economies, with the U.S. and EU preparing new anti-dumping probes on Chinese solar panels and electric vehicles. The implications extend beyond trade: rising competition is compressing global inflation, but also increasing risks of retaliatory measures. As China’s export share of global manufacturing goods reaches 19.4% in 2025—up from 16.1% in 2023—export-dependent economies face mounting pressure to restructure supply chains or implement new trade safeguards.