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Geopolitical Score 85 Bearish

IEA Warns of Deepening Oil Supply Crisis in April Amid Iran War

Apr 01, 2026 11:32 UTC
CL=F, XLE, ^VIX
Immediate term

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a stark warning that the oil supply crunch will worsen in April as the U.S.-Iran war intensifies, with the conflict creating what the agency's director calls the worst oil crisis in history. The IEA is considering further releases of strategic oil reserves to mitigate the impact.

  • The IEA warns that the oil supply crisis will worsen in April, with the U.S.-Iran war creating the worst oil crisis in history.
  • The loss of oil in April is expected to be twice that of March, driven by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The IEA is considering additional releases of strategic oil reserves to address the growing shortfall.
  • The current crisis surpasses previous oil shocks, with a daily loss of 12 million barrels of oil, more than the combined losses of the 1973 and 1979 crises and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.
  • Brent crude oil prices surged over 60% in March, the largest monthly gain since records began in the 1980s.
  • The IEA has already coordinated a release of 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles among its 32 member countries to offset some of the supply disruption.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that the oil supply crisis will intensify in April, with the U.S.-Iran war triggering what its director, Fatih Birol, describes as the worst oil crisis in history. Speaking on the 'In Good Company' podcast, Birol highlighted that the loss of oil supply in April is expected to be twice that of March, driven by the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route. The agency is closely monitoring the situation and is considering additional releases of strategic oil reserves to address the growing shortfall. Birol emphasized that the current crisis surpasses previous oil shocks, such as those in 1973 and 1979, as well as the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, with a daily loss of 12 million barrels of oil. This disruption is already affecting global markets, with Brent crude oil prices surging over 60% in March, the largest monthly gain since records began in the 1980s. The IEA has already coordinated a release of 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles among its 32 member countries to offset some of the supply disruption. However, Birol noted that such measures are only temporary and will not resolve the underlying issue of the blocked Strait of Hormuz. The agency has also proposed recommendations to mitigate the crisis, including reducing vehicle speed limits, promoting remote work, and limiting the use of gas-operated ovens. These measures aim to ease the strain on energy resources as the crisis deepens, particularly in emerging economies where energy rationing may become necessary. The situation remains volatile, with the potential for further price spikes and economic impacts, especially in regions reliant on oil imports.

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