B3 Exchange Launches Bitcoin-Linked Event Contracts for Ultra-High-Net-Worth Investors

Brazil’s main stock exchange, B3, is set to launch six new derivatives contracts on April 27, offering investors the ability to trade on the likelihood of future events, including Bitcoin price movements and the Ibovespa index. The event contracts, which operate similarly to prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, are designed for professional investors and require a minimum asset threshold of 10 million reais ($1.9 million) or CVM certification for access. Each contract’s price reflects the market’s estimated probability of an outcome, with fixed payouts and known risks from the outset. Traders will not take delivery of the underlying assets, as settlements are cash-based. B3’s vice president of Products and Clients, Luiz Masagão, emphasized that the launch is part of a broader strategy to modernize derivatives trading in Brazil. The exchange has previously offered contracts tied to central bank decisions and has been monitoring the growth of predictive platforms abroad. B3 is also developing its own tokenization platform and stablecoin, both expected to launch this year. The new contracts mark the first federally regulated prediction market in Brazil, entering a competitive landscape where platforms like Prévias and Palpitada operate in a regulatory gray area. U.S.-based Kalshi recently partnered with XP International, Brazil’s largest brokerage, to offer event contracts tied to Brazilian economic outcomes. The global prediction market is experiencing a boom, with notional volume nearing $160 billion and unique users surpassing 3 million. However, the regulatory framework for prediction markets in Brazil remains uncertain, with legal experts debating whether oversight should fall under the CVM, the Central Bank, or the Ministry of Finance.