Rising Oil Prices Reshape Energy Market Dynamics for GE Vernova and First Solar

Oil prices have climbed above $100 per barrel in March 2026 due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, prompting a reevaluation of energy strategies globally. Roughly 20% of global oil and gas supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and recent disruptions there have intensified concerns about supply stability. As a result, energy markets are increasingly prioritizing energy security and reliable power supply over cost-driven decisions. GE Vernova, a global supplier of power and electrification equipment, is positioned to benefit from this shift. The company reported $59.3 billion in orders and $38.1 billion in revenue for fiscal 2025, with a $65 billion equipment backlog and a total backlog of $150 billion. GE Vernova's installed equipment base generates about 25% of the world's electricity, creating a recurring services opportunity. In fiscal 2025, 45% of its revenue came from services, supported by an $85 billion services backlog. In contrast, First Solar, a pure-play solar module manufacturer, reported $5.2 billion in revenue and 17.5 gigawatts in module shipments for fiscal 2025. However, its contracted backlog declined from 68.5 gigawatts at the end of fiscal 2024 to 50.1 gigawatts in fiscal 2025, reflecting contract terminations and a more uncertain demand environment. Solar deployments are sensitive to financing, regulatory conditions, and project timelines, which are adversely affected during market volatility. Given these factors, GE Vernova appears to be a more stable choice in the current energy market. The company's strong backlog and recurring services provide visibility in uncertain macroeconomic conditions, while First Solar faces challenges related to demand and project execution. This shift in market dynamics is influencing investor perceptions and sector rotations, with a growing emphasis on reliability and energy security.