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Crypto Score 35 Neutral

Bitcoin Supply in Profit Nears Bear Market Thresholds

Apr 03, 2026 05:38 UTC
BTC-USD
Medium term

Bitcoin's supply in profit is approaching levels typical of a true bear market, according to a CryptoQuant analyst. Current metrics suggest the market is nearing conditions seen during the 2022 downturn, though some experts caution against immediate undervaluation signals.

  • Bitcoin's supply in profit is at 11.2 million BTC, nearing 2022 bear market levels.
  • 8.2 million BTC are currently at a loss, matching levels from late 2022.
  • The last bear market saw 9 million BTC in profit and 10.6 million BTC in loss at its lowest point.
  • Bitcoin has declined 52% from its all-time high, less severe than previous bear market drawdowns of 77% to 84%.
  • Analysts debate whether the market is signaling undervaluation or increasing stress.
  • The US dollar's strength and global liquidity conditions are influencing Bitcoin's performance.

Bitcoin's supply in profit has reached 11.2 million BTC, nearing levels observed during the 2022 bear market, according to CryptoQuant data. Analyst 'Darkfost' noted that the previous bear market recorded 9 million BTC in profit at its lowest point, indicating a potential shift toward bearish conditions. Meanwhile, 8.2 million BTC are currently at a loss, a figure last seen in late 2022, with the last bear market reaching 10.6 million BTC in losses. These metrics suggest the market may be approaching a significant undervaluation phase, though interpretations vary among analysts. Andri Fauzan Adziima of Bitrue argues the data reflects increasing market stress rather than immediate undervaluation. Bitcoin has declined by approximately 52% from its all-time high this cycle, a drawdown less severe than the 77% to 84% declines in prior bear markets. Analysts remain divided on whether further price declines are likely, with factors such as the strength of the US dollar and global liquidity conditions influencing market sentiment. Timothy Peterson highlighted that Bitcoin's performance is closely tied to the dollar's strength and Chinese yuan's weakness, with tighter global liquidity and higher dollar yields drawing capital away from crypto assets. The US dollar index has risen about 5% over the past two months, exacerbating pressure on Bitcoin's price.

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