Indian Shares Face Downward Pressure Amid Escalating US-Iran Tensions

Indian shares are poised to open lower on Monday amid escalating US-Iran tensions and uncertainty in global oil markets. Investors are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, where rising hostilities have pushed Brent crude prices above $110 a barrel. The situation has intensified concerns over energy supply disruptions, with OPEC+ announcing a plan to increase oil output by 206,000 barrels per day in May to address global shortages. However, Iran has indicated that Iraq will be exempt from restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, adding to regional volatility. The geopolitical standoff has prompted renewed threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, who warned of potential military action against Iran if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Trump plans to hold a news conference with the military at the Oval Office on Monday following the recent rescue of an American airman in Iran. Tehran has rejected these demands, labeling Trump's remarks as 'incitement to war crimes' and vowing to respond 'in kind' to any attacks on its infrastructure. Iran's President's office described the threats as a sign of desperation, emphasizing that the Strait will only be reopened once war-related damages are compensated through transit tolls. Meanwhile, Asian markets have shown resilience, with benchmark indexes in Japan and South Korea rising by around 1 percent. However, most regional markets remain closed for holidays, including Easter in Australia, New Zealand, and Hong Kong, and the Qingming Festival in China and Taiwan. In the U.S., Wall Street indexes surged last week on optimism about potential de-escalation in the Iran conflict. The dollar index remained stable in Asian trading, while gold prices fell over 1 percent toward $4,600 an ounce as hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts dimmed following strong March U.S. employment data. Closer to home, Indian benchmark indexes Sensex and Nifty closed positively on Thursday, extending gains for the second consecutive day. The BSE Sensex rose 0.3 percent, and the NSE Nifty index added 0.2 percent, recovering from intraday lows after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervened to curb speculative pressure on the rupee. The rupee saw its sharpest single-day gain in nearly 13 years, closing at 93.10 against the U.S. dollar following decisive RBI measures.