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U.S. Stocks Face Directional Dilemma Amid U.S.-Iran Tensions

Apr 06, 2026 12:53 UTC
^GSPC, ^DJI, XLE, XLF, CL=F, DEFN, ^VIX
Immediate term

U.S. stocks may struggle to find direction on Monday as traders remain cautious following President Donald Trump's recent threats against Iran. Index futures are nearly flat, reflecting market uncertainty.

  • U.S. stocks may show a lack of direction due to U.S.-Iran tensions.
  • Index futures are nearly flat, with S&P 500 futures up by less than a tenth of a percent.
  • Crude oil prices initially spiked but have retreated amid ceasefire talks.
  • A potential 45-day ceasefire is under discussion, but Iran resists pressure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The ISM services PMI is expected to decline to 54.7 in March.
  • Overseas markets in Asia-Pacific are mostly higher, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.6 percent and the Kospi gaining 1.4 percent.

U.S. stocks are poised for a lack of direction in early trading on Monday as traders remain cautious amid heightened geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Following a rally last week, major index futures are nearly flat, with the S&P 500 futures up by less than a tenth of a percent. President Donald Trump's recent threats to attack Iran's power plants and bridges have added to the uncertainty, with the deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz set for 8 pm ET on Tuesday. Crude oil prices initially spiked in response to Trump's comments but have since retreated as reports of indirect U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks emerged. A potential 45-day ceasefire, discussed by regional mediators, could lead to a permanent end to the conflict, though Iran has resisted pressure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The Institute for Supply Management will release its March services PMI report shortly after the market opens, with expectations of a decline to 54.7 from 56.1 in February. Despite the cautious tone, the major averages ended last week with strong gains, with the Nasdaq rising 4.4 percent, the S&P 500 up 3.4 percent, and the Dow increasing by 3 percent. Overseas markets in the Asia-Pacific region are mostly higher, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.6 percent and the Kospi gaining 1.4 percent. In commodities, crude oil futures are down $0.71 to $110.83 a barrel, while gold futures are up $9.60 to $4,689.30 an ounce. The U.S. dollar is trading at 159.49 yen against the euro at $1.1549.

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