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Geopolitical Score 92 Bearish

Iran Conflict Could Extend Oil Market Disruption to Months, TS Lombard Warns

Mar 18, 2026 21:34 UTC
CL=F, ^VIX, XLE
Medium term

TS Lombard forecasts that the global oil market may take months to stabilize following the latest Iran conflict, mirroring the duration of the 2022 oil shock. The prolonged disruption is expected to sustain elevated volatility and higher prices in energy markets.

  • Iran conflict could prolong oil market disruption to months, per TS Lombard
  • Duration comparable to the 2022 oil shock
  • CL=F, XLE, and ^VIX are key indicators of market impact
  • Energy and defense sectors face sustained volatility
  • Spillover effects expected across global equity markets

The ongoing conflict involving Iran is likely to keep global oil markets under strain for months, not weeks, according to TS Lombard. This timeline aligns with the duration of the 2022 oil shock, indicating a sustained supply disruption risk. The outlook reflects growing concerns over Middle East stability and its implications for energy flows. As a result, oil price volatility is expected to remain elevated, with broader market repercussions. Key energy benchmarks such as CL=F and the energy sector ETF XLE are likely to face continued pressure. The VIX index (^VIX) may also see sustained upward momentum, signaling heightened investor uncertainty. These dynamics are expected to impact not only energy markets but also defense stocks and global equities.

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