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ADP Automatic Data Processing, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

NEUTRAL
ADP Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ Technology Software - Application
Current Price
$253.09
Analyst Target
$293.23
+15.9% Upside
52W High
$329.93
52W Low
$249.68

AI Analysis

Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms

Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
ADP trades at a premium valuation with solid profitability and consistent earnings execution, but faces headwinds from near-term price underperformance and bearish insider activity. The stock has declined 19.9% over the past six months despite stable 7.1% YoY revenue growth and a strong ROE of 70.57%, which significantly exceeds the sector average of 24.83%. While its P/E of 25x is reasonable relative to its quality, it appears rich compared to high-growth peers like Snowflake and Marvell, especially given modest single-digit earnings growth. Analysts concur with a hold rating and a $293.23 target implying 15.9% upside, though insider selling worth $43.61M over the last six months raises caution about near-term sentiment.

Key Strengths

Exceptional ROE of 70.57% vs sector avg of 24.83%, indicating superior capital efficiency and pricing power
Consistent earnings beat streak: 3 out of last 4 quarters beat estimates with an average surprise of 2.08%
High profitability: 25.89% operating margin and 19.79% net margin, both above sector averages
Attractive dividend yield of 2.69% with a sustainable 60.81% payout ratio
Resilient business model in HR/payroll SaaS with recurring revenue and low customer churn

Key Risks

Rich valuation: P/E of 25x and Price/Book of 16.08 appear stretched vs modest 7.1% revenue growth
Bearish insider activity: $43.61M in net insider sales over last 6 months with no buys
Weak short-term price momentum: -19.9% over 6 months and trading near 52-week low of $249.68
Elevated Debt/Equity of 1.55 vs sector avg of 0.74, increasing financial risk in rising rate environment
Low liquidity: Quick ratio of 0.27 suggests potential near-term cash flow pressure despite stable operations
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$293.23
+15.9% above current price

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