MAR Marriott International, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL
MAR Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
•
Consumer Cyclical
•
Lodging
Current Price
$285.72
Analyst Target
$290.08
+1.5% Upside
52W High
$307.52
52W Low
$205.4
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
Marriott International trades at a premium valuation with strong historical profitability and consistent earnings beats, supported by resilient cash flow generation and a disciplined capital return policy. However, near-term earnings growth has decelerated, with Q/Q EPS declining 6.8%, while insider selling worth $28.75M over the past six months raises caution. The stock's price momentum has lagged over the past year (+2.3%) despite solid long-term returns (+138.8% over 5Y), and its negative Price/Book ratio due to accumulated deficits undermines traditional valuation frameworks. Relative to Consumer Cyclical peers, MAR exhibits superior margins and lower leverage but trades at a steep P/E of 30x versus sector average of 61.5x, reflecting quality yet limited upside per analyst target of $290.08.
Key Strengths
Exceptional profitability with operating margin of 65.93% and gross margin of 81.55%, significantly above sector average profit margin of 8.54%
Consistent earnings outperformance: 21 beats in last 25 quarters, including 3 of last 4 quarters above estimates
Strong free cash flow conversion implied by high operating margin and low capex business model (asset-light franchising)
Attractive dividend policy with 27.4% payout ratio, indicating sustainable yield and room for future growth
Trading below analyst consensus target price of $290.08, offering 1.5% upside with limited downside risk
Key Risks
Negative Price/Book ratio (-24.68) indicating accumulated equity deficits, raising structural balance sheet concerns
Decelerating earnings growth: Q/Q EPS down 6.8% despite YoY increase of 19.3%, signaling near-term headwinds
Elevated P/E of 30.1x vs sector average of 61.5x, but unattractive on growth-adjusted basis given moderate 5.6% revenue growth
Deteriorating liquidity with current ratio of 0.47 and quick ratio of 0.43, below safe threshold of 1.0
Material insider selling: $28.75M in sales over last 6 months with zero buy transactions, suggesting lack of confidence
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$290.08
+1.5% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional AI analysis across 5 key categories
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability, Growth & Financial Health
Detailed profit margins, ROE, debt ratios, and liquidity metrics
Sector Comparison & Peer Analysis
Compare MAR against industry averages and similar companies
Insider Trading & Analyst Ratings
Track insider transactions and Wall Street analyst recommendations