ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL
ODFL Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
•
Industrials
•
Trucking
Current Price
$132.29
Analyst Target
$156.96
+18.6% Upside
52W High
$228.72
52W Low
$131.46
AI Analysis
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Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) trades at $132.29, down 40.4% over the past year amid declining revenue and earnings growth, despite maintaining industry-leading profitability with an 18.97% profit margin and 25.66% operating margin. The stock appears reasonably valued relative to peers, with a P/E of 26.62 below the sector average of 31.89, though forward P/E of 22.42 suggests some earnings recovery is priced in. While the company’s balance sheet is exceptionally strong (Debt/Equity: 0.02), recent negative growth trends and lackluster price momentum contrast with a robust historical earnings track record and consistent analyst target of $156.95 implying 18.6% upside. Neutral stance reflects balancing of high-quality fundamentals against cyclical headwinds in trucking and near-term growth challenges.
Key Strengths
Exceptional profitability: 18.97% net margin and 25.66% operating margin significantly above sector averages of 13.67% and 20.48% respectively
Superior return metrics: ROE of 25.06% outperforms peer average ROE of 31.90% despite lower leverage, indicating efficient capital use
Extremely conservative capital structure: Debt/Equity ratio of 0.02 provides substantial financial flexibility and resilience in downturns
Consistent earnings beat history: 21 out of 25 quarters beat or met estimates over last 6+ years, demonstrating operational predictability
Attractive valuation relative to quality: P/E of 26.62 below sector average of 31.89 while maintaining higher margins and lower leverage
Key Risks
Negative growth trajectory: Revenue down 4.3% YoY and earnings down 10.5% YoY indicate cyclical or structural demand weakness
Deteriorating price momentum: 1-year return of -40.4% and 6-month return of -22.5% reflect investor skepticism on near-term outlook
Forward earnings deceleration: Q/Q EPS growth of -12.2% most recent period raises concerns about margin sustainability
Valuation premium risk: Despite being below sector P/E, high absolute multiples (P/E 26.6x, Price/Sales 5.08x) increase sensitivity to growth misses
Limited analyst conviction: 22 analysts cover but no formal recommendation provided, suggesting lack of consensus on catalyst
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$156.95
+18.6% above current price
Performance Snowflake
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Stock Price & Analyst Targets
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Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Valuation Metrics
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Profitability, Growth & Financial Health
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Sector Comparison & Peer Analysis
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