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PAYX Paychex, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

NEUTRAL
PAYX Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ Technology Software - Application
Current Price
$112.1
Analyst Target
$134.29
+19.8% Upside
52W High
$161.24
52W Low
$109.99

AI Analysis

Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms

Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
Paychex (PAYX) trades at a premium valuation with solid profitability and a compelling 3.85% dividend yield, but faces headwinds from near-term earnings contraction, elevated payout ratio, and negative insider activity. Despite strong historical ROE of 41.27% and gross margins above 70%, YoY earnings growth is negative (-10.2%), and price performance has significantly underperformed peers over 1Y (-20.7%) and 6M (-26.9%). The stock appears fairly valued relative to its growth trajectory when compared to sector peers like ROP and NXPI, though its P/E of 25.1x remains below the sector average of 126x. Analysts broadly concur with a 'hold' rating and a $134.29 target, implying ~20% upside, but weak recent insider sentiment and tight liquidity raise caution.

Key Strengths

Exceptional profitability with ROE of 41.27%, significantly above sector average of 25.60%
High gross margin of 72.83% and operating margin of 36.73%, reflecting pricing power and operating efficiency
Attractive dividend yield of 3.85%, one of the highest in its peer group
Revenue growth of 16.80% YoY outpaces many comparable software firms, including FI and NXPI
Consistent earnings beat history over the past 5 years, with 22 out of 25 quarters beating or meeting estimates

Key Risks

Earnings growth declining YoY (-10.2%) despite revenue growth, suggesting margin compression or cost pressures
Very high payout ratio of 92.38%, leaving little room for dividend sustainability if earnings dip further
Bearish insider activity: $2.46M in executive sales over last 6 months with zero buys
Premium valuation (P/E 25.13x) not fully justified by near-term growth, especially with Forward P/E still elevated at 21.19x
Weak short-term price momentum: down 26.9% over 6 months, underperforming both sector and broader market
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$134.29
+19.8% above current price

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