XEL Xcel Energy Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL
XEL Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
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Utilities
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Utilities - Regulated Electric
Current Price
$80.58
Analyst Target
$88.35
+9.6% Upside
52W High
$83.01
52W Low
$62.58
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
Xcel Energy (XEL) trades near its 52-week high at $80.58, supported by solid long-term price performance (3Y +32.5%, 1Y +20.8%) and a 2.83% dividend yield, but faces near-term headwinds with declining earnings (YoY EPS -29.6%) and inconsistent earnings surprises, including a -33.5% miss in Q3 2025. Valuation appears stretched relative to peers, with a P/E of 24.57 above the sector average of 21.85, despite weaker earnings growth than most comparables. The company maintains strong operating margins (26.62%) and regulatory visibility, but elevated leverage (Debt/Equity 1.68 vs peer avg 1.53) and weak liquidity (Current Ratio 0.80) constrain financial flexibility. Analysts are constructive with a $88.35 target implying 9.6% upside, though insider activity is neutral and recent earnings volatility raises execution concerns.
Key Strengths
Operating margin of 26.62% exceeds sector average and all key peers, reflecting disciplined cost management and regulated pricing power
Revenue growth of 7.40% YoY is supported by rate base expansion and clean energy investments, in line with sector tailwinds
Dividend yield of 2.83% is attractive within the utilities sector and backed by a sustainable 68.83% payout ratio
Strong historical total returns: +32.5% over 3 years and +20.8% over 1 year, outperforming broader market and peer median
Profitability metrics remain robust with gross margin at 45.03% and ROE of 9.45%, close to sector average of 9.93%
Key Risks
Earnings contraction of -27.20% YoY and -29.6% EPS decline raise concerns about margin pressure and regulatory lag
Valuation premium: P/E of 24.57 is 12.4% above sector average (21.85) despite below-average earnings growth and weaker momentum than peers like AEP (+33.9% 1Y)
Weak liquidity profile with Current Ratio of 0.80 and Quick Ratio of 0.48, indicating potential working capital strain
High leverage at Debt/Equity of 1.68, above both sector average (1.53) and credit-sensitive peers like SRE (0.81), increasing refinancing risk
Earnings volatility and declining trend in recent quarters: 3 of last 4 beats missed, with average surprise of -8.62%, signaling deteriorating forecasting accuracy
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$82.5
+2.4% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional AI analysis across 5 key categories
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability, Growth & Financial Health
Detailed profit margins, ROE, debt ratios, and liquidity metrics
Sector Comparison & Peer Analysis
Compare XEL against industry averages and similar companies
Insider Trading & Analyst Ratings
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