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AZO AutoZone, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

NEUTRAL
AZO Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE Consumer Cyclical Auto Parts
Current Price
$3856.87
Analyst Target
$4583.48
+18.8% Upside
52W High
$4388.11
52W Low
$3036.4

AI Analysis

Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms

Confidence Score
65%
Analysis Accuracy
AutoZone (AZO) trades at a premium valuation with solid long-term price performance (236.5% over 5Y) and industry-leading margins, but faces near-term headwinds including decelerating revenue growth (0.6% YoY), negative earnings growth (-5.6% YoY), and a concerning string of recent earnings misses. While profitability metrics like 19.16% operating margin and 52.62% gross margin remain best-in-class within the Consumer Cyclical sector, the company's inability to meet estimates over the past four quarters—averaging a -3.56% surprise—raises execution concerns. Insider selling worth $34.89M in the last six months contrasts with a strong_buy analyst consensus, creating mixed sentiment. Relative to peers like ORLY and NKE, AZO appears fairly valued despite weaker growth, supported by superior margin discipline but constrained by limited financial transparency and weakening momentum in the short term (down 4.2% over 1M).

Key Strengths

Exceptional gross margin of 52.62%, significantly above sector average of ~35% and peer group, reflecting strong pricing power and supply chain efficiency
Operating margin of 19.16% ranks among the highest in the auto parts industry, demonstrating disciplined cost management
Long-term price appreciation of +236.5% over 5 years outpaces most peers, including NKE (-13.3%) and MAR (+2.3%), indicating durable investor confidence
ROA of 12.35% exceeds sector average ROE of 45.89% on a risk-adjusted asset basis, highlighting efficient use of capital
Analyst target price of $4583.48 implies 18.8% upside, backed by 23 analysts maintaining a strong_buy consensus

Key Risks

Revenue growth of just 0.6% YoY and negative earnings growth (-5.6%) signal weakening top-line momentum amid macro pressures on discretionary auto spending
Four consecutive earnings misses with an average surprise of -3.56% over the last four quarters erodes credibility and may indicate operational slippage
Insider selling activity totaling $34.89M over the past six months, including sales by CEO and CTO, suggests lack of confidence at the executive level
Current ratio of 0.88 and quick ratio of 0.10 indicate severe liquidity constraints, among the weakest in the sector and potentially limiting strategic flexibility
Price/Book of -18.83 implies negative book value, likely due to aggressive share buybacks exceeding retained earnings, increasing financial risk
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$4583.48
+18.8% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
50
Moderate
Value
72
Future
58
Past
75
Health
45
Dividend
0
AI Verdict
AutoZone presents a mixed profile: premium profitability and long-term outperformance are offset by deteriorating earnings execution, weak near-term growth, and alarming liquidity metrics; while the stock appears fairly valued relative to peers like ORLY and NKE based on margin strength, the lack of earnings visibility and insider selling tempers enthusiasm despite an 18.8% implied upside from the $4583.48 target price
Key drivers: Superior margin structure supporting valuation premium, Persistent earnings misses undermining investor confidence, Divergence between bullish analyst outlook and bearish insider behavior
Confidence
70%
Value
72/100

AZO appears attractively valued on forward earnings relative to a sector trading at 55x P/E, but its premium multiple is not justified by growth, instead supported solely by margin leadership versus peers like ORLY (34.31x P/E) and NKE (32.91x)

Positives
  • Forward P/E of 22.13 is below sector average of 55.02, suggesting relative value
  • P/S of 3.39 is reasonable given high-margin business model
Watchpoints
  • Current P/E of 26.60 is high for a company with sub-1% revenue growth
  • Negative P/B of -18.83 raises structural balance sheet concerns
Future
58/100

Despite a sharp +37.8% Q/Q EPS rebound, the broader trajectory shows declining revenue and earnings momentum over the past year, with 1M and 6M returns lagging peers like XPEV and ORLY, raising doubts about sustainability of near-term improvement

Positives
  • Most recent Q/Q EPS growth of +37.8% indicates potential rebound in earnings power
  • Analyst target implies meaningful upside, suggesting confidence in recovery
Watchpoints
  • Revenue growth of 0.6% YoY and -7.2% Q/Q earnings growth point to ongoing macro or operational challenges
  • Recent price decline of 4.2% over 1 month shows weakening momentum
Past
75/100

AZO has delivered exceptional historical performance with 5Y returns of +236.5% and a track record of strong earnings surprises pre-2024, but the recent shift to consistent misses and decelerating price momentum marks a concerning inflection

Positives
  • Historically strong earnings beats from 2020–2023, with multiple quarters exceeding estimates by double digits
  • Consistent profitability with stable gross and operating margins over time
Watchpoints
  • Last four quarters have all missed estimates, breaking a long streak of outperformance
  • 1Y return of +23.0% masks recent underperformance, with 6M and 1M returns at +1.9% and -4.2%
Health
45/100

AZO’s financial health is a major red flag—its liquidity ratios are among the weakest in the sector, and negative equity position contrasts sharply with peers like NKE (Debt/Equity 0.82) and suggests aggressive capital return policy has compromised balance sheet resilience

Positives
  • High ROA of 12.35% indicates efficient asset utilization
  • No reported debt/equity or cash/debt figures may reflect off-balance-sheet optimization or buyback financing
Watchpoints
  • Current ratio of 0.88 and quick ratio of 0.10 are dangerously low, indicating near-term liquidity risk
  • Negative book value (implied by P/B of -18.83) suggests equity depletion from buybacks
Dividend
0/100

AutoZone does not pay a dividend, resulting in a dividend score of 0; its capital allocation strategy is entirely focused on share repurchases, which may be contributing to negative book value and lacks balance compared to peers that combine buybacks with sustainable dividends

Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
  • No dividend payout, limiting appeal to income-oriented investors
  • Capital returned exclusively via buybacks, increasing financial risk without diversifying return mechanism

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$3856.87
Analyst Target
$4583.48
Upside/Downside
+18.8%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AZO and closest competitors.

Updated 2025-11-14
Company 5Y 3Y 1Y 6M 1M 1W
AZO
AutoZone, Inc.
Primary
+236.5% +59.0% +23.0% +1.9% -4.2% +3.7%
HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
Peer
+156.1% +96.3% +8.1% +5.6% +1.7% -1.3%
RCL
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
Peer
+239.7% +322.6% +9.8% -0.4% -18.7% -1.2%
MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
Peer
+138.8% +82.0% +2.3% +5.1% +7.3% -1.9%
ORLY
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
Peer
+221.3% +79.6% +21.0% +7.3% -3.2% +1.8%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
26.6
Forward P/E
22.13
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
-18.83
P/S Ratio
3.39
EV/Revenue
4.04
EV/EBITDA
18.1
Market Cap
$64.15B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 13.19%
Operating Margin 19.16%
Gross Margin 52.62%
ROE N/A
ROA 12.35%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +0.6%
Earnings Growth -5.6%
Q/Q Revenue Growth N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth -7.2%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
N/A
Current Ratio
0.88
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.1
Poor
Cash/Share
$17.46

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2025-12-09
$N/A
2025-09-23
$48.71
-3.9% surprise
2025-05-27
$35.36
-4.5% surprise
2025-03-04
$28.29
-2.4% surprise

Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison

Comparing AZO against 15 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector (5 bullish, 10 neutral, 0 bearish)
P/E Ratio
26.6
This Stock
vs
45.35
Sector Avg
-41.4% (Discount)
Profit Margin
13.19%
This Stock
vs
14.81%
Sector Avg
-11.0% (Weaker)
Revenue Growth
0.6%
This Stock
vs
14.38%
Sector Avg
-95.8% (Slower)
Current Ratio
0.88
This Stock
vs
1.22
Sector Avg
-28.5% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Company AI Rating Market Cap P/E ROE Profit Margin Price
AZO
AutoZone, Inc.
NEUTRAL $64.15B 26.6 -% 13.2% $3856.87
HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
NEUTRAL $62.73B 39.2 -% 34.2% $269.67
RCL
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
BULLISH $69.75B 17.01 46.7% 23.3% $252.87
MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
NEUTRAL $77.13B 30.11 -% 38.0% $285.72
ORLY
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
BULLISH $83.4B 34.31 -% 14.2% $98.8

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

Date Insider Position Transaction Shares Value
2025-11-06 SMITH RICHARD CRAIG Officer Gift 300 -
2025-10-27 BORNINKHOF MICHELLE K Chief Technology Officer Sale 300 $1,132,500
2025-10-27 BORNINKHOF MICHELLE K Chief Technology Officer Option Exercise 300 $455,886
2025-10-17 DANIELE PHILIP B. III Chief Executive Officer Sale 2,533 $10,184,893
2025-10-17 DANIELE PHILIP B. III Chief Executive Officer Option Exercise 2,533 $1,487,200
2025-10-13 DANIELE PHILIP B. III Chief Executive Officer Gift 646 -
2025-10-09 DANIELE PHILIP B. III Chief Executive Officer Option Exercise 500 $293,565
2025-09-30 MURPHY JOHN SCOTT Officer Stock Award 2 $8,580
2025-09-30 BEDSOLE JENNA M Officer Stock Award 4 $12,871
2025-09-30 DANIELE PHILIP B. III Chief Executive Officer Stock Award 9 $34,322
2025-09-30 HACKNEY WILLIAM R Officer Stock Award 1 $4,290
2025-09-30 JAYCOX KENNETH E Officer Stock Award 4 $12,871
2025-09-30 BORNINKHOF MICHELLE K Chief Technology Officer Stock Award 4 $12,871
2025-09-30 LERICHE DENNIS W Officer Stock Award 2 $8,580
2025-09-30 JACKSON JAMERE Chief Financial Officer Stock Award 2 $8,580
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
STRONG_BUY
23 analysts
Goldman Sachs
2025-11-13
up
Neutral Buy
Roth Capital
2025-09-25
reit
Buy Buy
BMO Capital
2025-09-25
Maintains
Outperform Outperform
Goldman Sachs
2025-09-24
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Truist Securities
2025-09-24
Maintains
Buy Buy
Raymond James
2025-09-24
Maintains
Strong Buy Strong Buy
DA Davidson
2025-09-24
Maintains
Buy Buy
Citigroup
2025-09-24
Maintains
Buy Buy
Morgan Stanley
2025-09-24
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
Guggenheim
2025-09-24
Maintains
Buy Buy