AZO AutoZone, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
AI Analysis
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Key Strengths
Key Risks
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
AZO appears attractively valued on forward earnings relative to a sector trading at 55x P/E, but its premium multiple is not justified by growth, instead supported solely by margin leadership versus peers like ORLY (34.31x P/E) and NKE (32.91x)
- Forward P/E of 22.13 is below sector average of 55.02, suggesting relative value
- P/S of 3.39 is reasonable given high-margin business model
- Current P/E of 26.60 is high for a company with sub-1% revenue growth
- Negative P/B of -18.83 raises structural balance sheet concerns
Despite a sharp +37.8% Q/Q EPS rebound, the broader trajectory shows declining revenue and earnings momentum over the past year, with 1M and 6M returns lagging peers like XPEV and ORLY, raising doubts about sustainability of near-term improvement
- Most recent Q/Q EPS growth of +37.8% indicates potential rebound in earnings power
- Analyst target implies meaningful upside, suggesting confidence in recovery
- Revenue growth of 0.6% YoY and -7.2% Q/Q earnings growth point to ongoing macro or operational challenges
- Recent price decline of 4.2% over 1 month shows weakening momentum
AZO has delivered exceptional historical performance with 5Y returns of +236.5% and a track record of strong earnings surprises pre-2024, but the recent shift to consistent misses and decelerating price momentum marks a concerning inflection
- Historically strong earnings beats from 2020–2023, with multiple quarters exceeding estimates by double digits
- Consistent profitability with stable gross and operating margins over time
- Last four quarters have all missed estimates, breaking a long streak of outperformance
- 1Y return of +23.0% masks recent underperformance, with 6M and 1M returns at +1.9% and -4.2%
AZO’s financial health is a major red flag—its liquidity ratios are among the weakest in the sector, and negative equity position contrasts sharply with peers like NKE (Debt/Equity 0.82) and suggests aggressive capital return policy has compromised balance sheet resilience
- High ROA of 12.35% indicates efficient asset utilization
- No reported debt/equity or cash/debt figures may reflect off-balance-sheet optimization or buyback financing
- Current ratio of 0.88 and quick ratio of 0.10 are dangerously low, indicating near-term liquidity risk
- Negative book value (implied by P/B of -18.83) suggests equity depletion from buybacks
AutoZone does not pay a dividend, resulting in a dividend score of 0; its capital allocation strategy is entirely focused on share repurchases, which may be contributing to negative book value and lacks balance compared to peers that combine buybacks with sustainable dividends
- No dividend payout, limiting appeal to income-oriented investors
- Capital returned exclusively via buybacks, increasing financial risk without diversifying return mechanism
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AZO and closest competitors.
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AZO
AutoZone, Inc.
Primary
|
+236.5% | +59.0% | +23.0% | +1.9% | -4.2% | +3.7% |
|
HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
Peer
|
+156.1% | +96.3% | +8.1% | +5.6% | +1.7% | -1.3% |
|
RCL
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
Peer
|
+239.7% | +322.6% | +9.8% | -0.4% | -18.7% | -1.2% |
|
MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
Peer
|
+138.8% | +82.0% | +2.3% | +5.1% | +7.3% | -1.9% |
|
ORLY
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
Peer
|
+221.3% | +79.6% | +21.0% | +7.3% | -3.2% | +1.8% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AZO
AutoZone, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $64.15B | 26.6 | -% | 13.2% | $3856.87 | |
|
HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $62.73B | 39.2 | -% | 34.2% | $269.67 | |
|
RCL
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
|
BULLISH | $69.75B | 17.01 | 46.7% | 23.3% | $252.87 | |
|
MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $77.13B | 30.11 | -% | 38.0% | $285.72 | |
|
ORLY
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
|
BULLISH | $83.4B | 34.31 | -% | 14.2% | $98.8 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-06 | SMITH RICHARD CRAIG | Officer | Gift | 300 | - |
| 2025-10-27 | BORNINKHOF MICHELLE K | Chief Technology Officer | Sale | 300 | $1,132,500 |
| 2025-10-27 | BORNINKHOF MICHELLE K | Chief Technology Officer | Option Exercise | 300 | $455,886 |
| 2025-10-17 | DANIELE PHILIP B. III | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 2,533 | $10,184,893 |
| 2025-10-17 | DANIELE PHILIP B. III | Chief Executive Officer | Option Exercise | 2,533 | $1,487,200 |
| 2025-10-13 | DANIELE PHILIP B. III | Chief Executive Officer | Gift | 646 | - |
| 2025-10-09 | DANIELE PHILIP B. III | Chief Executive Officer | Option Exercise | 500 | $293,565 |
| 2025-09-30 | MURPHY JOHN SCOTT | Officer | Stock Award | 2 | $8,580 |
| 2025-09-30 | BEDSOLE JENNA M | Officer | Stock Award | 4 | $12,871 |
| 2025-09-30 | DANIELE PHILIP B. III | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 9 | $34,322 |
| 2025-09-30 | HACKNEY WILLIAM R | Officer | Stock Award | 1 | $4,290 |
| 2025-09-30 | JAYCOX KENNETH E | Officer | Stock Award | 4 | $12,871 |
| 2025-09-30 | BORNINKHOF MICHELLE K | Chief Technology Officer | Stock Award | 4 | $12,871 |
| 2025-09-30 | LERICHE DENNIS W | Officer | Stock Award | 2 | $8,580 |
| 2025-09-30 | JACKSON JAMERE | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 2 | $8,580 |
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets