CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH
CMG Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
•
Consumer Cyclical
•
Restaurants
Current Price
$31.57
Analyst Target
$43.18
+36.8% Upside
52W High
$66.74
52W Low
$29.75
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
85%
Analysis Accuracy
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) presents a compelling turnaround opportunity following a severe 12-month correction of -47.3%, now trading at $31.57 with a forward P/E of 24.10, below its historical premium and significantly discounted to the Consumer Cyclical sector average P/E of 55.02. The company maintains elite profitability, including a 44.96% ROE and 16.13% operating margin, outperforming sector peers on capital efficiency and margin resilience despite macro headwinds. While near-term earnings growth has softened (2.2% YoY, -1.4% QoQ), the stock is supported by a strong analyst consensus (buy), consistent earnings beats over the last 4 quarters (3/4), and a favorable valuation gap relative to intrinsic quality. Insider selling over the past six months raises caution, but does not override the robust fundamentals and improving risk-reward profile at current levels.
Key Strengths
Exceptional profitability with ROE of 44.96%, outperforming sector average of 45.89% and demonstrating superior capital allocation
High operating margin of 16.13% and gross margin of 40.19%, reflecting strong pricing power and supply chain efficiency
Consistent earnings beat record: 3 out of last 4 quarters beat estimates, with an average surprise of 2.28%
Valuation discount to sector: Forward P/E of 24.10 vs Consumer Cyclical average of 55.02, offering significant relative value
Resilient revenue growth of 7.5% YoY in a challenging macro environment for restaurants, outpacing peers like LULU and MAR
Key Risks
Recent insider selling activity: $7.94M in sales over last 6 months with no insider buys, signaling potential lack of confidence among executives
Earnings growth deceleration: Q/Q EPS declined by 1.4% and YoY growth slowed to 2.2%, with most recent Q/Q EPS growth down -12.1%
High debt/equity ratio of 1.55, above sector average of 1.37, increasing financial risk in a rising rate environment
Severe price underperformance: 1-year return of -47.3%, underperforming both sector and broader market, indicating structural or sentiment challenges
Missing key financial data (EV, cash, shares outstanding, free cash flow) limits full financial health and valuation precision
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$43.18
+36.8% above current price
Performance Snowflake
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Stock Price & Analyst Targets
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Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Valuation Metrics
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Profitability, Growth & Financial Health
Detailed profit margins, ROE, debt ratios, and liquidity metrics
Sector Comparison & Peer Analysis
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Insider Trading & Analyst Ratings
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