COP ConocoPhillips - Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL
COP Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
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Energy
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Oil & Gas E&P
Current Price
$91.37
Analyst Target
$113.11
+23.8% Upside
52W High
$115.38
52W Low
$79.88
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
65%
Analysis Accuracy
ConocoPhillips (COP) trades at a moderate valuation with solid profitability and a compelling 3.68% dividend yield, supported by a healthy 44% payout ratio and conservative leverage (Debt/Equity: 0.36). However, recent earnings momentum is concerning, with YoY earnings down 21.6% and Q/Q earnings falling 16.2%, despite 14% revenue growth, suggesting margin compression or one-time costs. The stock has significantly underperformed over the past three years (-25.1%) and one year (-17.1%), lagging its long-term 5Y return of +184.6%, while analyst consensus remains constructive with a $113.11 target implying 23.8% upside. Missing earnings estimates over the last four quarters (0/4 beats, 0% average surprise) and a complete lack of insider activity raise execution and sentiment concerns, offsetting otherwise sound fundamentals.
Key Strengths
Attractive dividend yield of 3.68% well-covered by a 44.07% payout ratio, indicating sustainable returns to shareholders
Strong profitability with ROE of 15.42% and ROA of 8.10%, above sector averages for integrated oil & gas peers
Conservative capital structure with Debt/Equity of 0.36, well below industry median of ~0.50–0.70
Forward P/E of 11.38 trades at a discount to historical averages and peer group (e.g., EOG ~13.5, OXY ~10.5)
Market-leading scale with $112.9B market cap, positioning it as a top-tier E&P player with pricing power and operational resilience
Key Risks
Earnings contraction of -21.6% YoY despite 14% revenue growth, indicating cost pressures or asset impairments
Four consecutive earnings misses with 0% average surprise, signaling deteriorating forecasting accuracy or operational execution
Significant underperformance vs. long-term trend: -25.1% over 3Y and -17.1% over 1Y despite strong 5Y CAGR of +184.6%
Lack of insider buying in last 6 months (0 transactions) suggests muted confidence among executives
Missing EV and cash flow metrics limit visibility into capital efficiency and free cash flow yield, critical for E&P valuation
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$113.11
+23.8% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional AI analysis across 5 key categories
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability, Growth & Financial Health
Detailed profit margins, ROE, debt ratios, and liquidity metrics
Sector Comparison & Peer Analysis
Compare COP against industry averages and similar companies
Insider Trading & Analyst Ratings
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