CVX Chevron Corporation - Fundamental Analysis
AI Analysis
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Key Strengths
Key Risks
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
CVX trades at roughly sector-average valuation multiples, but the absence of earnings growth differentiates it negatively from higher-quality peers like Exxon, which maintain growth in production and cash flow.
- Forward P/E of 14.28 is below current P/E of 22.17, suggesting earnings recovery is priced in
- Price/Book and Price/Sales both at 1.67 are in line with integrated oil & gas sector medians
- Current P/E of 22.17 is high given negative earnings growth and lack of margin expansion
- Lack of EV/EBITDA and EV/Revenue data limits full-cycle valuation assessment
The stock shows modest price momentum over 6M and 1M horizons, but future earnings trajectory remains weak, with no indication of inflection in revenue or margin expansion, limiting conviction in a turnaround.
- Forward P/E compression to 14.28 implies market expects earnings stabilization or recovery
- Recent 6M price gain of 13.5% suggests improving sentiment ahead of potential energy demand rebound
- Revenue growth is negative (-1.4% YoY), and earnings are in clear downtrend
- No earnings surprises in recent quarters, indicating poor execution or forecasting discipline
Despite a strong 5-year price performance, CVX has delivered inconsistent earnings execution, with declining profitability over the past year and no positive earnings surprises, undermining confidence in management's operational track record.
- 5-year return of +119.9% demonstrates strong long-term capital appreciation
- Gross margin of 40.60% and operating margin of 9.85% reflect durable upstream profitability
- Zero earnings beats in the last 25 reported quarters, indicating chronic underperformance or conservative guidance
- ROE of 7.32% and ROA of 4.05% are weak for a capital-intensive industry, suggesting inefficient capital allocation
CVX’s balance sheet is a standout strength, with minimal leverage compared to peers like Shell or BP, enabling resilience in volatile commodity environments and funding for dividends and buybacks.
- Debt/Equity ratio of 0.21 is among the lowest in the integrated energy sector, providing significant financial flexibility
- Current ratio of 1.15 indicates sufficient short-term liquidity despite capital intensity
- Quick ratio of 0.72 suggests reliance on inventory turnover to meet obligations, a risk in demand shocks
- Missing total cash and debt figures limit full assessment of liquidity runway
The dividend is a key investor draw, but its sustainability is increasingly dependent on stable oil prices and cost control, with limited room for error given the near-full earnings payout.
- Dividend yield of 4.34% is attractive and well above the energy sector average
- Long-standing dividend policy with consistent payments, reinforcing income investor appeal
- Payout ratio of 95.08% is dangerously high, leaving little buffer for earnings volatility
- No data on 5-year yield average or dividend growth, suggesting potential stagnation
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for CVX and closest competitors.
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
CVX
Chevron Corporation
Primary
|
+119.9% | -5.2% | +1.8% | +13.5% | +3.6% | +1.7% |
|
COP
ConocoPhillips
Peer
|
+184.6% | -25.1% | -17.1% | +0.5% | +4.1% | +5.2% |
|
KMI
Kinder Morgan, Inc.
Peer
|
+168.4% | +73.3% | +7.0% | -0.2% | +0.4% | +3.3% |
|
MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
Peer
|
+464.9% | +77.0% | +29.4% | +23.2% | +8.8% | +3.2% |
|
EOG
EOG Resources, Inc.
Peer
|
+209.8% | -15.3% | -15.5% | -2.7% | +2.6% | +4.7% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
Energy Sector Comparison
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
CVX
Chevron Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $315.14B | 22.17 | 7.3% | 6.8% | $157.62 | |
|
COP
ConocoPhillips
|
NEUTRAL | $112.91B | 12.91 | 15.4% | 14.4% | $91.37 | |
|
KMI
Kinder Morgan, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $61.0B | 22.48 | 8.9% | 16.6% | $27.42 | |
|
MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $60.11B | 21.27 | 18.9% | 2.2% | $199.98 | |
|
EOG
EOG Resources, Inc.
|
BULLISH | $59.9B | 10.96 | 18.5% | 24.4% | $110.4 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-29 | KNOWLES ALANA K. | Officer | Option Exercise | 3,978 | $350,860 |
| 2025-08-29 | KNOWLES ALANA K. | Officer | Sale | 3,978 | $636,480 |
| 2025-08-22 | HESS JOHN B JR. | Director | Sale | 375,000 | $59,363,550 |
| 2025-08-06 | MOYO DAMBISA F | Director | Gift | 495 | - |
| 2025-07-28 | HESS JOHN B JR. | Director | Stock Award | 1,251 | - |
| 2025-07-18 | PATE ROBERT HEWITT | General Counsel | Stock Award | 20 | - |
| 2025-07-18 | UMPLEBY DONALD JAMES III | Director | Stock Award | 9 | - |
| 2025-07-18 | REED-KLAGES DEBRA L. | Director | Stock Award | 316 | - |
| 2025-07-18 | BOOTH THOMAS | Officer | Stock Award | 5 | - |
| 2025-07-18 | WIRTH MICHAEL K | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 51 | - |
| 2025-07-18 | HEWSON MARILLYN A | Director | Stock Award | 59 | - |
| 2025-05-28 | HERNANDEZ ENRIQUEJR | Director | Stock Award | 1,704 | - |
| 2025-05-28 | MOORMAN CHARLES W IV | Director | Stock Award | 1,704 | - |
| 2025-05-28 | REED-KLAGES DEBRA L | Director | Stock Award | 1,704 | - |
| 2025-05-28 | MOYO DAMBISA F | Director | Stock Award | 1,704 | - |
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets