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CVX Chevron Corporation - Fundamental Analysis

NEUTRAL
CVX Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE Energy Oil & Gas Integrated
Current Price
$157.62
Analyst Target
$172.8
+9.6% Upside
52W High
$168.96
52W Low
$132.04

AI Analysis

Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms

Confidence Score
65%
Analysis Accuracy
Chevron Corporation (CVX) trades at a premium valuation with a current price of $157.62, near its 52-week high of $168.96, despite weakening fundamental momentum. Earnings have declined sharply YoY (-26.6%) and Q/Q (-21.1%), while revenue is flat to down, and the company has failed to beat earnings estimates in the last four quarters. The stock offers a compelling 4.34% dividend yield, supported by a strong balance sheet (Debt/Equity: 0.21), but the 95% payout ratio raises sustainability concerns. Analysts are collectively bullish with a $172.80 target implying ~9.6% upside, yet insider selling of $60M over the past six months signals caution at current levels.

Key Strengths

Attractive 4.34% dividend yield, well above the S&P 500 average and competitive within the integrated oil & gas sector
Exceptionally strong financial health with low leverage (Debt/Equity: 0.21), among the best in the peer group
Gross margin of 40.60% reflects pricing power and operational efficiency in upstream operations
Market cap of $315.14B positions CVX as a top-tier energy major with global scale and portfolio resilience
Analyst consensus remains constructive (buy rating from 25 analysts) with a target price implying meaningful upside

Key Risks

Earnings down 26.6% YoY and 21.1% Q/Q, indicating deteriorating profitability despite stable oil prices
High payout ratio of 95.08% leaves little room for dividend resilience in a prolonged downturn
Forward P/E of 14.28 appears reasonable but is underpinned by cyclical earnings that may not sustain
Insider activity is bearish: $60M in director/officer sales with zero buys in the last six months
Valuation lacks margin of safety—current P/E of 22.17 is elevated relative to earnings trajectory and sector median
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$165.0
+4.7% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
63
Strong
Value
50
Future
55
Past
60
Health
80
Dividend
70
AI Verdict
CVX presents a mixed profile: supported by sector-leading balance sheet strength and a high-yield dividend, but weighed down by declining earnings, premium valuation, and bearish insider sentiment. While priced in line with peer multiples, the lack of earnings momentum and stretched near-term multiples limit upside despite favorable analyst sentiment and recent price strength.
Key drivers: Declining earnings momentum despite stable oil prices, High dividend yield with tight payout coverage, Strong financial health relative to energy peers
Confidence
65%
Value
50/100

CVX trades at roughly sector-average valuation multiples, but the absence of earnings growth differentiates it negatively from higher-quality peers like Exxon, which maintain growth in production and cash flow.

Positives
  • Forward P/E of 14.28 is below current P/E of 22.17, suggesting earnings recovery is priced in
  • Price/Book and Price/Sales both at 1.67 are in line with integrated oil & gas sector medians
Watchpoints
  • Current P/E of 22.17 is high given negative earnings growth and lack of margin expansion
  • Lack of EV/EBITDA and EV/Revenue data limits full-cycle valuation assessment
Future
55/100

The stock shows modest price momentum over 6M and 1M horizons, but future earnings trajectory remains weak, with no indication of inflection in revenue or margin expansion, limiting conviction in a turnaround.

Positives
  • Forward P/E compression to 14.28 implies market expects earnings stabilization or recovery
  • Recent 6M price gain of 13.5% suggests improving sentiment ahead of potential energy demand rebound
Watchpoints
  • Revenue growth is negative (-1.4% YoY), and earnings are in clear downtrend
  • No earnings surprises in recent quarters, indicating poor execution or forecasting discipline
Past
60/100

Despite a strong 5-year price performance, CVX has delivered inconsistent earnings execution, with declining profitability over the past year and no positive earnings surprises, undermining confidence in management's operational track record.

Positives
  • 5-year return of +119.9% demonstrates strong long-term capital appreciation
  • Gross margin of 40.60% and operating margin of 9.85% reflect durable upstream profitability
Watchpoints
  • Zero earnings beats in the last 25 reported quarters, indicating chronic underperformance or conservative guidance
  • ROE of 7.32% and ROA of 4.05% are weak for a capital-intensive industry, suggesting inefficient capital allocation
Health
80/100

CVX’s balance sheet is a standout strength, with minimal leverage compared to peers like Shell or BP, enabling resilience in volatile commodity environments and funding for dividends and buybacks.

Positives
  • Debt/Equity ratio of 0.21 is among the lowest in the integrated energy sector, providing significant financial flexibility
  • Current ratio of 1.15 indicates sufficient short-term liquidity despite capital intensity
Watchpoints
  • Quick ratio of 0.72 suggests reliance on inventory turnover to meet obligations, a risk in demand shocks
  • Missing total cash and debt figures limit full assessment of liquidity runway
Dividend
70/100

The dividend is a key investor draw, but its sustainability is increasingly dependent on stable oil prices and cost control, with limited room for error given the near-full earnings payout.

Positives
  • Dividend yield of 4.34% is attractive and well above the energy sector average
  • Long-standing dividend policy with consistent payments, reinforcing income investor appeal
Watchpoints
  • Payout ratio of 95.08% is dangerously high, leaving little buffer for earnings volatility
  • No data on 5-year yield average or dividend growth, suggesting potential stagnation

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$157.62
Analyst Target
$172.8
Upside/Downside
+9.6%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for CVX and closest competitors.

Updated 2025-11-14
Company 5Y 3Y 1Y 6M 1M 1W
CVX
Chevron Corporation
Primary
+119.9% -5.2% +1.8% +13.5% +3.6% +1.7%
COP
ConocoPhillips
Peer
+184.6% -25.1% -17.1% +0.5% +4.1% +5.2%
KMI
Kinder Morgan, Inc.
Peer
+168.4% +73.3% +7.0% -0.2% +0.4% +3.3%
MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
Peer
+464.9% +77.0% +29.4% +23.2% +8.8% +3.2%
EOG
EOG Resources, Inc.
Peer
+209.8% -15.3% -15.5% -2.7% +2.6% +4.7%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
22.17
Forward P/E
14.28
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.67
P/S Ratio
1.67
EV/Revenue
1.89
EV/EBITDA
9.47
Market Cap
$315.14B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 6.77%
Operating Margin 9.85%
Gross Margin 40.6%
ROE 7.32%
ROA 4.05%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth -1.4%
Earnings Growth -26.6%
Q/Q Revenue Growth N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth -21.1%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.21
Low debt
Current Ratio
1.15
Good
Quick Ratio
0.72
Poor
Cash/Share
$3.84

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-01-30
$N/A
2025-10-31
$1.85
+8.9% surprise
2025-08-01
$1.77
+1.7% surprise
2025-05-02
$2.18
+1.3% surprise

Energy Sector Comparison

Comparing CVX against 8 companies in the Energy sector (1 bullish, 7 neutral, 0 bearish)
P/E Ratio
22.17
This Stock
vs
22.53
Sector Avg
-1.6% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
7.32%
This Stock
vs
11.88%
Sector Avg
-38.4% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
6.77%
This Stock
vs
9.64%
Sector Avg
-29.8% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.21
This Stock
vs
0.62
Sector Avg
-65.6% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-1.4%
This Stock
vs
1.61%
Sector Avg
-186.8% (Slower)
Current Ratio
1.15
This Stock
vs
1.28
Sector Avg
-10.1% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Company AI Rating Market Cap P/E ROE Profit Margin Price
CVX
Chevron Corporation
NEUTRAL $315.14B 22.17 7.3% 6.8% $157.62
COP
ConocoPhillips
NEUTRAL $112.91B 12.91 15.4% 14.4% $91.37
KMI
Kinder Morgan, Inc.
NEUTRAL $61.0B 22.48 8.9% 16.6% $27.42
MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
NEUTRAL $60.11B 21.27 18.9% 2.2% $199.98
EOG
EOG Resources, Inc.
BULLISH $59.9B 10.96 18.5% 24.4% $110.4

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

Date Insider Position Transaction Shares Value
2025-08-29 KNOWLES ALANA K. Officer Option Exercise 3,978 $350,860
2025-08-29 KNOWLES ALANA K. Officer Sale 3,978 $636,480
2025-08-22 HESS JOHN B JR. Director Sale 375,000 $59,363,550
2025-08-06 MOYO DAMBISA F Director Gift 495 -
2025-07-28 HESS JOHN B JR. Director Stock Award 1,251 -
2025-07-18 PATE ROBERT HEWITT General Counsel Stock Award 20 -
2025-07-18 UMPLEBY DONALD JAMES III Director Stock Award 9 -
2025-07-18 REED-KLAGES DEBRA L. Director Stock Award 316 -
2025-07-18 BOOTH THOMAS Officer Stock Award 5 -
2025-07-18 WIRTH MICHAEL K Chief Executive Officer Stock Award 51 -
2025-07-18 HEWSON MARILLYN A Director Stock Award 59 -
2025-05-28 HERNANDEZ ENRIQUEJR Director Stock Award 1,704 -
2025-05-28 MOORMAN CHARLES W IV Director Stock Award 1,704 -
2025-05-28 REED-KLAGES DEBRA L Director Stock Award 1,704 -
2025-05-28 MOYO DAMBISA F Director Stock Award 1,704 -
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
25 analysts
Wells Fargo
2025-11-14
main
Overweight Overweight
Piper Sandler
2025-11-13
main
Overweight Overweight
Mizuho
2025-11-13
main
Outperform Outperform
Morgan Stanley
2025-11-13
main
Overweight Overweight
Piper Sandler
2025-11-10
main
Overweight Overweight
Morgan Stanley
2025-11-03
main
Overweight Overweight
Raymond James
2025-10-17
reit
Outperform Outperform
Wells Fargo
2025-10-17
init
Overweight
Scotiabank
2025-10-09
main
Sector Perform Sector Perform
Barclays
2025-10-07
main
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight