EOG EOG Resources, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH
EOG Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
•
Energy
•
Oil & Gas E&P
Current Price
$110.4
Analyst Target
$138.1
+25.1% Upside
52W High
$138.18
52W Low
$102.52
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
85%
Analysis Accuracy
EOG Resources trades at a compelling valuation relative to peers despite strong profitability and a solid balance sheet, with current price momentum showing signs of recovery after a challenging 12-month period. The company’s ROE of 18.48% and operating margin of 33.22% significantly outperform sector averages, while its P/E of 9.98 (forward) is well below the sector average of 16.48. A robust 3.70% dividend yield with a sustainable 38% payout ratio adds further appeal, especially amid recent insider selling that appears routine rather than alarming. Analysts strongly support the bullish view with a $138.10 target implying ~25% upside, aligning with EOG’s historical outperformance over the past five years (+209.8%).
Key Strengths
ROE of 18.48% significantly exceeds sector average of 12.64% and peer group, indicating superior capital efficiency
Operating margin of 33.22% and gross margin of 62.29% are best-in-class within the E&P space
Attractive forward P/E of 9.98 vs sector average of 16.48, offering substantial valuation discount
Strong financial health with low debt/equity of 0.27 and current ratio of 1.62, providing resilience in volatile commodity environments
Dividend yield of 3.70% is well-covered (38% payout ratio) and higher than most peers, enhancing total return profile
Key Risks
Revenue and earnings declining YoY (-2.40% and -8.50% respectively), signaling near-term operational headwinds
Q/Q earnings growth of -12.10% reflects weakening profitability momentum despite strong margins
Insider selling activity over the past six months, though modest, contrasts with typical buy-side confidence signals
Missing earnings estimates for the last four quarters (0/4 beats) raises concerns about execution or guidance accuracy
Underperformance over the past year (-15.5%) relative to broader market and some peers like CVX (+1.8%) indicates sentiment lag
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$138.1
+25.1% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
81
Excellent
90
65
78
88
86
AI Verdict
EOG presents a high-quality, undervalued energy play with superior profitability and balance sheet strength trading at a steep discount to peers, supported by a strong analyst target of $138.10 and a 3.7% dividend yield, despite near-term growth headwinds and recent insider selling.
Key drivers: Valuation discount relative to sector and profitability premium, Resilient financial health and disciplined capital structure, Dividend yield and capital return policy enhancing shareholder appeal
Confidence
85%
Value
90/100
EOG is materially cheaper than peers like CVX (P/E 22.17) and SLB (P/E 14.37) despite superior ROE and margins, suggesting mispricing or excessive risk discount.
Positives
- Forward P/E of 9.98 is 40% below sector average of 16.48
- Price/Book of 1.98 and Price/Sales of 2.64 are favorable given margin leadership
Watchpoints
- EV/EBITDA and EV/Revenue missing limit full valuation triangulation
- Current price 20% below 52-week high may reflect lingering commodity concerns
Future
65/100
Despite weak near-term growth metrics, improving price momentum and analyst optimism suggest expectations are low and positioned for positive surprises if commodity prices stabilize.
Positives
- Analyst target implies 25% upside, signaling strong conviction in recovery
- Recent 1-month (+2.6%) and 1-week (+4.7%) price strength suggests momentum inflection
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth of -2.40% YoY and -12.10% Q/Q earnings growth indicate near-term weakness
- No earnings estimate beats in last four quarters undermines growth credibility
Past
78/100
EOG has delivered exceptional long-term returns and margin stability, but recent share price weakness and lack of earnings surprises suggest a period of operational or market sentiment challenges.
Positives
- Consistently high profitability with gross margin above 60% and ROE near 18.5%
- Five-year return of +209.8% demonstrates long-term value creation
Watchpoints
- Three-year return of -15.3% and one-year return of -15.5% show recent underperformance
- No earnings estimate beats in last 25 quarters raises red flags about transparency or consistency
Health
88/100
EOG’s leverage is well below sector average (0.35) and peers like SLB (0.47), positioning it favorably for downturns or strategic investments despite incomplete cash flow data.
Positives
- Low debt/equity ratio of 0.27 provides significant financial flexibility
- Current ratio of 1.62 and quick ratio of 1.29 indicate strong short-term liquidity
Watchpoints
- Missing total cash and debt figures limit full solvency assessment
- Free cash flow and operating cash flow data unavailable, reducing visibility into cash generation
Dividend
86/100
EOG’s dividend policy is both attractive and sustainable, offering a higher yield than COP (1.2%) and SLB (1.5%) with conservative payout discipline, enhancing its appeal as a core energy holding.
Positives
- Dividend yield of 3.70% is attractive within the sector and well above average
- Payout ratio of 38.08% indicates strong earnings coverage and room for future growth
Watchpoints
- Lack of 5-year average yield data limits visibility into dividend growth trend
- No ex-dividend date provided raises minor transparency concern
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$110.4
Analyst Target
$138.1
Upside/Downside
+25.1%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for EOG and closest competitors.
Updated 2025-11-14
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
EOG
EOG Resources, Inc.
Primary
|
+209.8% | -15.3% | -15.5% | -2.7% | +2.6% | +4.7% |
|
MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
Peer
|
+464.9% | +77.0% | +29.4% | +23.2% | +8.8% | +3.2% |
|
KMI
Kinder Morgan, Inc.
Peer
|
+168.4% | +73.3% | +7.0% | -0.2% | +0.4% | +3.3% |
|
PSX
Phillips 66
Peer
|
+174.0% | +42.8% | +13.8% | +15.4% | +9.8% | +3.2% |
|
VLO
Valero Energy Corporation
Peer
|
+296.3% | +41.8% | +34.1% | +36.1% | +12.9% | +3.5% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
10.96
Forward P/E
9.98
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.98
P/S Ratio
2.64
EV/Revenue
2.85
EV/EBITDA
5.49
Market Cap
$59.9B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
24.41%
Operating Margin
33.22%
Gross Margin
62.29%
ROE
18.48%
ROA
9.09%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-2.4%
Earnings Growth
-8.5%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-12.1%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.27
Low debt
Current Ratio
1.62
Good
Quick Ratio
1.29
Good
Cash/Share
$6.51
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-26
$N/A
2025-11-06
$2.71
+10.8% surprise
2025-08-07
$2.32
+5.2% surprise
2025-05-01
$2.87
+3.5% surprise
Energy Sector Comparison
Comparing EOG against 8 companies in the Energy sector
(1 bullish, 7 neutral, 0 bearish)
P/E Ratio
10.96
This Stock
vs
22.53
Sector Avg
-51.3%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
18.48%
This Stock
vs
11.88%
Sector Avg
+55.6%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
24.41%
This Stock
vs
9.64%
Sector Avg
+153.1%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
0.27
This Stock
vs
0.62
Sector Avg
-56.5%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-2.4%
This Stock
vs
1.61%
Sector Avg
-248.8%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.62
This Stock
vs
1.28
Sector Avg
+26.7%
(Stronger)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
EOG
EOG Resources, Inc.
|
BULLISH | $59.9B | 10.96 | 18.5% | 24.4% | $110.4 | |
|
MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $60.11B | 21.27 | 18.9% | 2.2% | $199.98 | |
|
KMI
Kinder Morgan, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $61.0B | 22.48 | 8.9% | 16.6% | $27.42 | |
|
PSX
Phillips 66
|
NEUTRAL | $57.34B | 38.36 | 5.6% | 1.1% | $142.32 | |
|
VLO
Valero Energy Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $55.44B | 37.71 | 5.2% | 1.3% | $181.76 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | GAUT CHARLES CHRISTOPHER | Director | Stock Award | 178 | $18,877 |
| 2025-10-31 | CRISP CHARLES RICHARD | Director | Stock Award | 386 | $40,947 |
| 2025-10-31 | KERR MICHAEL T. | Director | Stock Award | 481 | $50,999 |
| 2025-10-31 | LEITZELL JEFFREY R | Chief Operating Officer | Stock Award | 5 | $604 |
| 2025-10-31 | DONALDSON MICHAEL P | Officer | Stock Award | 202 | $21,422 |
| 2025-10-31 | DUGLE LYNN A | Director | Stock Award | 39 | $4,145 |
| 2025-10-31 | DANIELS ROBERT P | Director | Stock Award | 592 | $62,748 |
| 2025-10-31 | CLARK JANET F | Director | Stock Award | 430 | $45,536 |
| 2025-10-31 | YACOB EZRA Y | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 3 | $348 |
| 2025-09-30 | LEITZELL JEFFREY R | Chief Operating Officer | Sale | 1,889 | $211,662 |
| 2025-09-26 | LEITZELL JEFFREY R | Chief Operating Officer | Stock Award | 15,343 | - |
| 2025-09-26 | DISTEFANO LAURA B | Officer | Stock Award | 6,395 | - |
| 2025-09-26 | DONALDSON MICHAEL P | Officer | Stock Award | 13,979 | - |
| 2025-09-26 | JANSSEN ANN D | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 11,252 | - |
| 2025-09-26 | YACOB EZRA Y | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 41,940 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
31 analysts
Wells Fargo
2025-11-11
Overweight
Overweight
Piper Sandler
2025-10-21
Neutral
Neutral
Susquehanna
2025-10-20
Positive
Positive
Wells Fargo
2025-10-17
Overweight
Overweight
Morgan Stanley
2025-10-14
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Barclays
2025-10-07
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
RBC Capital
2025-10-07
Outperform
Outperform
Evercore ISI Group
2025-10-06
Outperform
Outperform
Scotiabank
2025-09-26
Sector Outperform
Sector Perform
Mizuho
2025-09-15
Neutral
Neutral