FICO Fair Isaac Corporation - Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH
FICO Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
•
Technology
•
Software - Application
Current Price
$1741.37
Analyst Target
$2016.44
+15.8% Upside
52W High
$2400.0
52W Low
$1300.0
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
88%
Analysis Accuracy
FICO demonstrates elite profitability and consistent earnings outperformance, supported by strong double-digit revenue and earnings growth, positioning it favorably within the high-margin software application sector. Despite a 25% pullback over the past year, the stock shows signs of stabilization with a 6.4% rebound in the last six months and positive near-term momentum. Valuation remains rich but justifiable given superior margins—particularly the 48.1% operating margin and 82.2% gross margin—relative to peers trading at higher multiples despite weaker fundamentals. Analysts reflect confidence with a $2016 target implying 15.7% upside, though insider selling activity presents a notable counter-signal.
Key Strengths
Exceptional profitability with 48.1% operating margin, significantly above sector average of 16.85%
High gross margin of 82.23%, indicative of scalable, asset-light software business model
Consistent earnings beat streak: 3 out of last 4 quarters beat estimates, with 5-year history of frequent positive surprises (average +15% surprise in 2020–2022)
Strong ROA of 32.62%, reflecting efficient use of assets to generate profit
Revenue growth of 13.6% YoY outpaces several large-cap peers including FI (0.9%) and NXPI (-2.4%)
Key Risks
Elevated valuation with P/E of 65.8 and Price/Sales of 20.7, creating vulnerability to multiple contraction in rising rate environments
Negative Price/Book of -23.70 suggests intangible-heavy balance sheet and potential accounting complexity or stock-based compensation drag
Insider selling pressure: $54.5M in CEO sales over last 6 months signals lack of confidence at the top
Weak liquidity profile with current ratio of 0.83 and quick ratio of 0.78, below 1.0 safety threshold
Near-term earnings deceleration: most recent Q/Q EPS growth was -9.7%, indicating possible softness in sequential momentum
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$2016.0
+15.8% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional AI analysis across 5 key categories
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability, Growth & Financial Health
Detailed profit margins, ROE, debt ratios, and liquidity metrics
Sector Comparison & Peer Analysis
Compare FICO against industry averages and similar companies
Insider Trading & Analyst Ratings
Track insider transactions and Wall Street analyst recommendations