HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL
HLT Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
•
Consumer Cyclical
•
Lodging
Current Price
$269.67
Analyst Target
$281.83
+4.5% Upside
52W High
$279.81
52W Low
$196.04
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
Hilton Worldwide (HLT) trades near its 52-week high at $269.67, reflecting strong long-term price momentum with a 156.1% return over five years, though recent near-term performance has cooled with flat 6M and 1Y returns. The company exhibits elite profitability metrics—operating margin of 60.33%, gross margin of 77.52%, and ROA of 9.63%—significantly outpacing sector averages, while earnings growth remains robust at 29% YoY despite a recent Q/Q decline. Valuation appears stretched with a P/E of 39.20 and Price/Sales of 12.88, exceeding peer and sector averages, which limits margin of safety despite analyst consensus of 'buy' and a $281.83 target price implying 4.5% upside. Bearish insider activity, including a $3.21M officer sale, contrasts with strong historical earnings beats and resilient cash flow generation, creating a mixed signal that tempers enthusiasm.
Key Strengths
Operating margin of 60.33% is exceptional, nearly double the sector average of ~30% and significantly above peers like MAR (estimated ~40%)
Gross margin of 77.52% reflects powerful pricing power and asset-light business model efficiency
Profit margin of 34.19% far exceeds sector average of 12.23%, highlighting superior cost control and brand strength
ROA of 9.63% indicates effective asset utilization, outperforming many capital-intensive consumer cyclicals
Analyst target price of $281.83 implies 4.5% upside with 24 analysts maintaining a 'buy' rating, signaling institutional confidence
Key Risks
P/E of 39.20 is elevated vs. sector average of 49.97 but forward P/E of 33.75 remains high relative to modest 3.5% revenue growth, creating decoupling risk
Price/Sales of 12.88 is among the highest in the sector, suggesting premium valuation not fully supported by growth trajectory
Current ratio of 0.66 and quick ratio of 0.58 indicate tight liquidity, raising concerns about short-term financial flexibility
Recent insider selling by an officer ($3.21M) introduces caution, especially near 52-week highs
Q/Q EPS decline of 19.1% and YoY EPS drop of 7.3% signal near-term earnings pressure despite strong annual growth
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$258.5
-4.1% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional AI analysis across 5 key categories
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability, Growth & Financial Health
Detailed profit margins, ROE, debt ratios, and liquidity metrics
Sector Comparison & Peer Analysis
Compare HLT against industry averages and similar companies
Insider Trading & Analyst Ratings
Track insider transactions and Wall Street analyst recommendations