HSY The Hershey Company - Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL
HSY Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
•
Consumer Defensive
•
Confectioners
Current Price
$179.2
Analyst Target
$188.54
+5.2% Upside
52W High
$208.03
52W Low
$140.13
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
Hershey (HSY) trades at a premium valuation with solid profitability and a resilient brand, but faces near-term headwinds reflected in declining earnings and insider selling. Despite a strong quarterly earnings surprise trend over the past two years, YoY EPS has contracted sharply (-44.4%), and operating margins have compressed amid cost pressures. The stock is down 10.8% over 3Y and remains 14% below its 52-week high, though recent 6M performance (+13.9%) suggests stabilization. Relative to peers like KMB and CL, HSY exhibits better growth and lower leverage than most, but its P/E of 26.8x exceeds the sector average of 22.5x and forward P/E of 21.3x offers limited upside given earnings volatility.
Key Strengths
ROE of 31.01% demonstrates efficient use of equity capital, well above the sector average of 120.59% when excluding outliers like CL (293.63%) and KMB (136.88%)
Consistent earnings beat streak: 3 out of last 4 quarters beat estimates with an average surprise of +16.89%, indicating strong operational execution and conservative guidance
Revenue growth of 6.5% YoY outpaces peer average of 5.46%, showing pricing power and demand resilience in a defensive sector
Dividend yield of 3.06% is attractive in the consumer defensive space and supported by long-term payout discipline
Debt/Equity of 1.26 is significantly lower than sector average of 3.28, reducing refinancing and interest rate risk
Key Risks
Earnings growth collapse: YoY EPS down -38.2%, Q/Q down -38.1%, signaling severe margin pressure or one-time charges that could persist
High P/E ratio of 26.83 vs forward P/E of 21.33 implies significant multiple contraction is priced in, leaving little room for error
Payout ratio of 81.91% is elevated for a company with earnings volatility, raising sustainability concerns if profitability does not rebound
Insider selling by CFO and other directors totaling $0.88M in the last 6 months signals lack of confidence at the executive level
Quick ratio of 0.66 indicates tight liquidity, below the current ratio of 1.36 and suggesting inventory-heavy working capital constraints
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$185.0
+3.2% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional AI analysis across 5 key categories
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability, Growth & Financial Health
Detailed profit margins, ROE, debt ratios, and liquidity metrics
Sector Comparison & Peer Analysis
Compare HSY against industry averages and similar companies
Insider Trading & Analyst Ratings
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