HUM Humana Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL
HUM Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
•
Healthcare
•
Healthcare Plans
Current Price
$237.12
Analyst Target
$288.46
+21.7% Upside
52W High
$315.35
52W Low
$206.87
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
Humana (HUM) trades at $237.12, down 15.1% over the past year and significantly below its 52-week high of $315.35, reflecting persistent pressure from declining earnings and negative long-term price momentum (-42.2% over 5 years). Despite solid revenue growth of 11.1% and a strong track record of earnings beats (3 of last 4 quarters), YoY earnings have collapsed by nearly 60%, driven by margin compression and one-time headwinds. Valuation appears relatively attractive with a forward P/E of 14.08 vs sector average of 37.37, but low profitability (1.02% net margin) and weak ROE (7.16%) constrain upside. Analysts are lukewarm with a hold rating and $288.46 target implying ~21% upside, while insider activity is neutral and dividend policy remains stable.
Key Strengths
Revenue growth of 11.1% outpaces sector average of 10.24%, indicating resilient top-line momentum in Medicare Advantage and healthcare services.
Forward P/E of 14.08 is significantly below sector average P/E of 37.37, offering relative valuation appeal for a large-cap healthcare plan provider.
Strong liquidity position with current ratio of 2.02 and quick ratio of 1.53, well above industry median, supporting operational stability.
Consistent earnings beat record: 21 out of 25 quarters beat estimates, with an average surprise of 12.16% over the last four, signaling reliable execution and conservative guidance.
Dividend payout ratio of 33.12% is sustainable given cash flow profile, and yield of 1.49% provides modest income appeal in a low-yield environment.
Key Risks
Earnings growth YoY down 59.3%, the steepest decline in the peer group, raising concerns about margin sustainability and cost containment.
Net profit margin of 1.02% is drastically below sector average of 13.30%, highlighting structural profitability challenges despite scale.
ROE of 7.16% lags far behind sector average of 42.02%, indicating inefficient capital allocation or low pricing power relative to peers like COR (123.75%) and ZTS (49.87%).
Price/Sales of 0.23 suggests deep market skepticism about future margin expansion and long-term earnings power, even as revenue grows.
Recent price weakness: -9.6% over 1 month and -5.9% over 1 week, coinciding with negative EPS momentum, may signal deteriorating sentiment ahead of 2026 outlook.
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$288.46
+21.7% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional AI analysis across 5 key categories
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability, Growth & Financial Health
Detailed profit margins, ROE, debt ratios, and liquidity metrics
Sector Comparison & Peer Analysis
Compare HUM against industry averages and similar companies
Insider Trading & Analyst Ratings
Track insider transactions and Wall Street analyst recommendations