ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL
ITW Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
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Industrials
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Specialty Industrial Machinery
Current Price
$243.97
Analyst Target
$259.0
+6.2% Upside
52W High
$279.13
52W Low
$214.66
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) trades at a premium valuation with solid long-term profitability and a disciplined capital allocation track record, but near-term earnings contraction and weakening growth momentum present headwinds. Despite a robust ROE of 91.68% and gross margins above 43%, YoY earnings have declined by 28.1%, and insider selling activity over the past six months signals caution at current levels. The stock is down 7.4% over the past year, underperforming key peers like 3M and Northrop Grumman, while trading below the analyst consensus target of $259.00. Relative to the industrials sector, ITW exhibits stronger margins and return metrics but faces elevated leverage and tepid revenue growth of just 2.3%, limiting near-term upside potential.
Key Strengths
Exceptional profitability with ROE of 91.68% — significantly above sector average of 35.76% and peer group
High operating leverage evidenced by 27.67% operating margin and 43.93% gross margin, among the best in the industrials sector
Consistent earnings beat record: 3 out of last 4 quarters beat estimates, with a strong historical surprise average of +4.5% over the last 10 quarters
Attractive dividend yield of 2.64% supported by a sustainable 59.26% payout ratio and long-standing policy
Trading below analyst target price of $259.00, implying ~6.1% upside from current levels
Key Risks
Earnings under pressure with YoY decline of 28.1% and Q/Q drop of 29.2%, indicating near-term profitability weakness
Revenue growth lags peers at only 2.3% YoY vs sector average of 7.02%, raising concerns about top-line resilience
High debt/equity ratio of 2.79 — above sector average of 1.77 and even riskier than leveraged peers like Lockheed Martin (3.59)
Insider selling activity: $2.18M in sales over last 6 months with no buys, suggesting lack of confidence at current valuation
Rich valuation multiples: P/E of 23.64 and Price/Book of 22.06 — premium to sector averages (P/E 27.01 but P/B not provided) and raising multiple compression risk
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$259.0
+6.2% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional AI analysis across 5 key categories
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability, Growth & Financial Health
Detailed profit margins, ROE, debt ratios, and liquidity metrics
Sector Comparison & Peer Analysis
Compare ITW against industry averages and similar companies
Insider Trading & Analyst Ratings
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