JCI Johnson Controls International plc - Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL
JCI Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
•
Industrials
•
Building Products & Equipment
Current Price
$118.72
Analyst Target
$129.11
+8.8% Upside
52W High
$123.78
52W Low
$68.03
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
Johnson Controls International (JCI) trades at a premium valuation with strong recent earnings growth and solid profitability, but faces headwinds from stretched multiples, weakening near-term EPS momentum, and bearish insider activity. While the company has delivered consistent quarterly beats over the past six years—evidenced by a 20.0% Q/Q EPS growth and 3.64% average surprise over the last four quarters—its forward P/E of 28.33 and current P/E of 44.97 are well above the sector average of 31.50, raising concerns about near-term upside. The stock has significantly outperformed with a 1Y return of +41.2% and 5Y return of +189.6%, yet momentum has cooled recently (-2.9% over 1W). Analysts maintain a 'buy' recommendation with a $129.11 target implying ~8.7% upside, but insider selling worth $4.04M over the last six months signals caution at current levels.
Key Strengths
Consistent earnings execution: 3 out of last 4 quarters beat estimates with a 3.64% average surprise; long-term track record of 22 beats in 25 quarters
Strong profitability: 13.95% net margin and 36.41% gross margin exceed sector averages of 12.61% and peer medians
Leverage to structural trends in building efficiency and smart infrastructure with global scale in HVAC and fire/security systems
Healthy dividend policy: 1.35% yield supported by a sustainable 57.41% payout ratio, below the 60% threshold for industrial peers
Lower leverage than sector: Debt/Equity of 0.86 vs sector average of 1.56, reducing refinancing and interest rate risk
Key Risks
Elevated valuation: P/E of 44.97 is 42.8% above sector average (31.50) and Forward P/E of 28.33 still implies premium pricing
Decelerating earnings momentum: YoY EPS growth is -1.6% despite strong Q/Q growth, suggesting cyclical peak risks
Weak liquidity profile: Current ratio of 0.93 and quick ratio of 0.66 indicate potential working capital pressure
Bearish insider sentiment: $4.04M in net officer sales over last 6 months with zero buys, suggesting lack of confidence at current price
Near-term price resistance: Trading near 52-week high ($123.78) with no 50D/200D data, increasing vulnerability to pullback
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$110.5
-6.9% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional AI analysis across 5 key categories
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability, Growth & Financial Health
Detailed profit margins, ROE, debt ratios, and liquidity metrics
Sector Comparison & Peer Analysis
Compare JCI against industry averages and similar companies
Insider Trading & Analyst Ratings
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