MCO Moody's Corporation - Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH
MCO Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
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Financial Services
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Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
Current Price
$479.48
Analyst Target
$543.75
+13.4% Upside
52W High
$531.93
52W Low
$378.71
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
92%
Analysis Accuracy
Moody's Corporation (MCO) exhibits exceptional profitability and consistent earnings execution, underpinned by best-in-class margins and ROE of 54.91%, significantly outperforming financial services peers. Despite a premium valuation (P/E 38.6x vs sector 20.6x), the stock is supported by robust 22.9% YoY earnings growth, strong cash flow generation, and a favorable analyst target of $543.75 implying 13.4% upside. Price momentum has lagged recently (1Y: +0.2%, 6M: -1.8%), but long-term performance remains strong (5Y: +81.5%), reflecting durable franchise value in credit ratings and analytics. Insider selling introduces caution, though it appears routine rather than distress-driven, while the analyst community maintains a unified 'buy' recommendation.
Key Strengths
ROE of 54.91% — more than double the sector average of 25.17% — reflecting capital efficiency and pricing power
Operating margin of 46.89% and gross margin of 73.75% demonstrate industry-leading cost structure and pricing control
22.9% YoY earnings growth and 10.7% revenue growth outpace most peers, including MMC and USB, in a high-margin business model
Consistent earnings beat streak: 3 of last 4 quarters beat estimates with an average surprise of 6.56%, signaling strong predictability
Analyst target price of $543.75 implies 13.4% upside, backed by 20 analysts with aligned 'buy' sentiment
Key Risks
Premium valuation: P/E of 38.6x and Price/Book of 21.6x are substantially above sector averages (P/E 20.6x, P/B ~6x), increasing sensitivity to growth deceleration
Debt/Equity of 1.81 is elevated vs sector average of 0.72, raising refinancing and interest rate risk in a higher-for-longer rate environment
Insider activity shows net selling over the past 6 months ($1.66M in sales, 0 buys), potentially signaling lack of confidence at current levels
Near-term price underperformance: 1Y return of +0.2% and 6M decline of -1.8% lag both historical trends and some peers like USB
Limited visibility on free cash flow and enterprise value due to missing data, creating opacity in capital allocation and intrinsic value
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$543.75
+13.4% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional AI analysis across 5 key categories
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability, Growth & Financial Health
Detailed profit margins, ROE, debt ratios, and liquidity metrics
Sector Comparison & Peer Analysis
Compare MCO against industry averages and similar companies
Insider Trading & Analyst Ratings
Track insider transactions and Wall Street analyst recommendations