MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation - Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL
MPC Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
•
Energy
•
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Current Price
$199.98
Analyst Target
$199.0
-0.5% Downside
52W High
$202.3
52W Low
$115.1
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
65%
Analysis Accuracy
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) trades near its 52-week high at $199.98, reflecting strong multi-year momentum with a 5Y return of +464.9% and 1Y gain of +29.4%. Despite robust earnings growth of 141.2% YoY and a solid ROE of 18.89%, revenue is flat to down (-0.8% YoY), and margins remain thin (2.16% net margin) versus sector peers averaging 10.52%. Valuation appears stretched relative to sector averages, with a P/E of 21.27 versus an industry average of 16.48, while insider selling and mixed analyst targets suggest caution at current levels. The stock is supported by a healthy 2.0% dividend yield and strong cash flow generation, but elevated leverage (D/E of 1.43 vs peer avg 0.35) and lack of earnings surprise history weigh on upside potential.
Key Strengths
Exceptional 5-year total return performance (+464.9%) demonstrating strong investor confidence and capital appreciation
High ROE of 18.89% significantly above sector average of 12.64%, indicating efficient use of equity capital
Strong year-over-year earnings growth of 141.2%, reflecting effective cost management or favorable refining spreads
Attractive dividend yield of 2.0% with a sustainable 38.7% payout ratio, appealing in the energy sector
Analyst consensus recommendation is 'buy' with a target price of $199.00, nearly matching current market price
Key Risks
Valuation premium: P/E of 21.27 exceeds sector average of 16.48 and peer median, suggesting limited upside
Revenue decline of -0.8% YoY amid flat refining margins, raising concerns about top-line resilience
Elevated leverage with Debt/Equity of 1.43, more than 4x the sector average of 0.35, increasing refinancing and volatility risk
Insider selling activity totaling $3.07M in the last 6 months, signaling potential lack of confidence at current valuation
Poor liquidity profile: Quick ratio of 0.70 indicates limited short-term asset coverage of liabilities
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$185.0
-7.5% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional AI analysis across 5 key categories
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability, Growth & Financial Health
Detailed profit margins, ROE, debt ratios, and liquidity metrics
Sector Comparison & Peer Analysis
Compare MPC against industry averages and similar companies
Insider Trading & Analyst Ratings
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