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PM

BULLISH
$155.43 Live
Philip Morris International Inc. · NYSE
Target $185.75 (+19.5%)
$116.12 52W Range $186.69

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Nov 16, 2025
Market cap
$241.95B
P/E
22.17
ROE
N/A
Profit margin
21.6%
Debt/Equity
N/A
Dividend yield
3.78%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
92%
Philip Morris International (PM) presents a compelling investment case supported by strong profitability, consistent earnings growth, and a resilient dividend profile. Despite near-term price weakness over the past six months (-7.3%), the stock has delivered exceptional long-term returns (+153.1% over 5Y), underpinned by robust YoY EPS growth of 17.3% and a track record of beating earnings estimates in 22 of the last 25 quarters. The company’s high operating margin (40.75%) and gross margin (66.92%) reflect pricing power and cost discipline in a defensive sector, while its forward P/E of 21.59 appears justified given growth and stability. Analysts concur with a unanimous buy rating and a $185.75 target price, implying ~19.5% upside, reinforcing confidence in continued outperformance.

Key Strengths

Exceptional profitability with operating margin of 40.75% and gross margin of 66.92%, among the highest in consumer defensive sector
Consistent earnings growth: 13.1% YoY and 17.3% most recent Q/Q EPS growth, demonstrating strong underlying momentum
Outstanding earnings surprise record: 22 out of 25 quarters beat estimates, with an average surprise of +4.82% over the last four
Attractive dividend yield of 3.78% with a sustainable 78.76% payout ratio, well-covered by earnings
Significant analyst price upside: $185.75 target implies 19.5% appreciation from current $155.43 level

Key Risks

Negative Price/Book ratio (-22.17) suggests deep negative equity, likely due to aggressive share buybacks exceeding retained earnings
Weak liquidity profile: current ratio of 0.85 and quick ratio of 0.37 indicate potential near-term cash flow pressure
Missing key financials (debt/equity, EV, cash/debt) limits full health assessment and raises transparency concerns
Tobacco sector faces structural headwinds from declining smoking rates and increasing regulation globally
Valuation appears stretched relative to historical norms and sector peers, with P/E of 22.17 and P/S of 6.05 above defensive averages
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$185.75
+19.5% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
83
Excellent
Value
72
Future
90
Past
94
Health
68
Dividend
91
AI Verdict
PM scores highly across profitability, growth consistency, and dividend reliability, offsetting concerns about valuation premium and financial transparency. Trading at a forward P/E of 21.59, it commands a premium to sector medians but is justified by superior margins and earnings execution, particularly within the tobacco peer group where stability and cash generation dominate investment theses. The $185.75 analyst target and strong buy-side sentiment reflect confidence in sustained performance.
Key drivers: Superior margin structure and pricing power, Consistent earnings beats and accelerating EPS growth, High-yield, sustainable dividend in a low-growth environment
Confidence
90%
Value
72/100

Compared to tobacco peers like Altria (MO) and British American Tobacco (BTI), PM trades at a moderate valuation premium, justified by stronger international diversification and innovation in smoke-free products, though the negative book value remains an outlier concern.

Positives
  • Forward P/E of 21.59 is in line with historical averages for PM and reflects growth premium
  • EV/EBITDA and other enterprise metrics unavailable, but profitability supports valuation
Watchpoints
  • Price/Sales of 6.05 is elevated for a mature, low-growth consumer staple
  • Negative Price/Book ratio (-22.17) is a red flag, indicating accumulated deficits or aggressive capital return
Future
90/100

PM’s future growth is anchored in its smoke-free product pipeline and emerging market exposure, with price momentum showing recovery after a 6-month dip, supported by accelerating earnings and positive analyst sentiment.

Positives
  • Revenue and earnings growing at 9.4% and 13.1% YoY, respectively, with Q/Q EPS up 17.3%
  • Strong analyst target of $185.75 implies confidence in continued growth trajectory
Watchpoints
  • Lack of visibility into free cash flow and capex limits confidence in reinvestment capacity
  • Smoke-free transition (e.g., IQOS) faces regulatory and adoption risks in key markets
Past
94/100

Over the past five years, PM has delivered exceptional shareholder returns (+153.1%) driven by consistent earnings growth, margin expansion, and reliable capital returns, establishing a proven track record of outperformance in both profitability and stock price.

Positives
  • 22 out of 25 quarters beat EPS estimates, including multiple double-digit surprises
  • ROA of 14.94% and stable high margins demonstrate capital efficiency and operational excellence
Watchpoints
  • One notable earnings miss in Q1 2024 (-6.3%) raises occasional execution risk
  • Limited historical margin or ROIC trend data due to missing metrics
Health
68/100

While PM’s profitability suggests strong cash generation, its weak liquidity ratios and lack of disclosed debt/cash levels create uncertainty relative to peers who maintain stronger balance sheet transparency and cushion.

Positives
  • High operating cash flow implied by strong net income and ROA of 14.94%
  • No immediate solvency concerns despite missing debt/equity and cash/debt figures
Watchpoints
  • Current ratio of 0.85 and quick ratio of 0.37 indicate tight liquidity and potential working capital strain
  • Absence of debt, cash, and EV data prevents full solvency and leverage assessment
Dividend
91/100

PM’s dividend policy is a core investor attraction, offering a high, well-covered yield typical of tobacco stocks, with a payout ratio that remains manageable due to exceptional profit margins and cash flow generation.

Positives
  • Attractive 3.78% dividend yield, above S&P 500 and sector average
  • Payout ratio of 78.76% is sustainable given stable earnings and high margins
Watchpoints
  • No data on dividend growth history or consistency of increases
  • High payout ratio leaves limited room for hikes if earnings stagnate

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$155.43
Analyst Target
$185.75
Upside/Downside
+19.5%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for PM and closest competitors.

Updated 2025-11-14
PM
Philip Morris International Inc.
Primary
5Y
+153.1%
3Y
+89.2%
1Y
+25.8%
6M
-7.3%
1M
-1.5%
1W
+1.3%
PEP
PepsiCo, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+27.7%
3Y
-6.3%
1Y
+7.3%
6M
+9.9%
1M
-6.8%
1W
+1.8%
KO
The Coca-Cola Company
Peer
5Y
+67.9%
3Y
+33.1%
1Y
+8.8%
6M
+15.3%
1M
-4.7%
1W
+1.0%
PG
The Procter & Gamble Company
Peer
5Y
+21.4%
3Y
+3.7%
1Y
-13.5%
6M
-4.9%
1M
-12.1%
1W
-0.2%
BUD
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV
Peer
5Y
+15.0%
3Y
+23.0%
1Y
+47.5%
6M
-0.5%
1M
+9.5%
1W
+1.9%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
22.17
Forward P/E
21.59
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
-22.17
P/S Ratio
6.05
EV/Revenue
7.25
EV/EBITDA
16.14
Market Cap
$241.95B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 21.57%
Operating Margin 40.75%
Gross Margin 66.92%
ROE N/A
ROA 14.94%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +9.4%
Earnings Growth +13.1%
Q/Q Revenue Growth N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth +12.8%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
N/A
Current Ratio
0.85
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.37
Poor
Cash/Share
$2.6

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-02-05
$N/A
2025-10-21
$2.24
+6.9% surprise
2025-07-22
$1.91
+2.8% surprise
2025-04-23
$1.69
+4.8% surprise

Consumer Defensive Sector Comparison

Comparing PM against 48 companies in the Consumer Defensive sector (2 bullish, 25 neutral, 21 bearish)
P/E Ratio
22.17
This Stock
vs
33.58
Sector Avg
-34.0% (Discount)
Profit Margin
21.57%
This Stock
vs
-0.56%
Sector Avg
-3982.8% (Weaker)
Revenue Growth
9.4%
This Stock
vs
8.58%
Sector Avg
+9.6% (Growing)
Current Ratio
0.85
This Stock
vs
2.05
Sector Avg
-58.5% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
16 analysts
UBS
2025-09-05
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Barclays
2025-07-30
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
Needham
2025-07-23
reit
Buy Buy
UBS
2025-07-14
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Citigroup
2025-07-10
Maintains
Buy Buy
JP Morgan
2025-07-10
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
Barclays
2025-07-10
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
Jefferies
2025-07-09
init
Buy
Barclays
2025-06-13
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
B of A Securities
2025-06-04
Maintains
Buy Buy

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning PM from our newsroom.

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