SPG Simon Property Group, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
AI Analysis
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Key Strengths
Key Risks
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
While SPG appears cheaper than the broader REIT sector on earnings, its asset-based and sales multiples are stretched, particularly when compared to peers like PSA (P/B ~2.5x implied) and O (P/B ~2.0x), suggesting overvaluation on a net asset basis.
- P/E of 26.60 is below sector average of 58.77, offering relative value
- Forward P/E of 26.95 suggests stable near-term earnings expectations
- Price/Book of 25.83 is extremely high, indicating significant premium to book value
- Price/Sales of 11.25 is elevated for a REIT, especially in a capital-intensive, low-growth sector
Despite solid top- and bottom-line growth, price momentum has stalled recently — up only 2.5% in the last month and down 0.5% in the past week — suggesting the market is pricing in execution risks despite favorable macro trends in retail real estate.
- Revenue growth of 8.2% and earnings growth of 27.4% YoY signal strong operating momentum
- Q/Q EPS growth of +17.6% indicates recent acceleration in profitability
- Earnings have missed estimates in 3 of last 4 quarters, eroding confidence in forward guidance
- No visibility on FCF or EV/EBITDA limits ability to assess growth sustainability
SPG has delivered exceptional profitability and long-term capital appreciation, but recent earnings volatility and declining estimate beats suggest weakening predictability, undermining its historical reputation for stability.
- Consistently high gross margin of 81.99% and operating margin of 50.76% reflect pricing power and cost discipline
- 5-year return of +202.9% demonstrates strong long-term investor returns
- Earnings surprise trend has deteriorated significantly since 2023, with multiple double-digit misses
- Most recent quarters show volatility in EPS, including a -43.4% miss in Q2 2024
SPG’s financial health is a major concern — its leverage dwarfs peers like O (0.74) and AMT (4.18), and its liquidity profile is weak, increasing vulnerability to interest rate shocks or retail downturns.
- Operating margin of 50.76% indicates strong cash generation from core operations
- High ROIC implied by ROE of 82.46%, though not directly reported
- Debt/Equity ratio of 8.85 is alarmingly high, among the highest in the REIT sector
- Current and quick ratios of 0.59 indicate insufficient short-term liquidity to cover obligations
The dividend offers compelling income, but the payout ratio above 100% creates a structural risk — without earnings recovery or FCF improvement, the yield may not be sustainable, especially under high leverage.
- Attractive dividend yield of 4.82% provides strong income appeal in a low-growth sector
- Annual dividend rate of $8.80 has been maintained, signaling policy consistency
- Payout ratio of 123% indicates dividends exceed earnings, raising sustainability concerns
- No data on 5-year average yield or growth trend limits visibility into dividend policy discipline
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for SPG and closest competitors.
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPG
Simon Property Group, Inc.
Primary
|
+202.9% | +79.3% | +7.6% | +13.4% | +2.5% | -0.5% |
|
EQIX
Equinix, Inc.
Peer
|
+14.3% | +26.5% | -11.1% | -9.3% | -4.5% | -4.8% |
|
DLR
Digital Realty Trust, Inc.
Peer
|
+32.5% | +57.2% | -8.6% | -5.7% | -9.7% | -6.9% |
|
AMT
American Tower Corporation
Peer
|
-11.4% | -7.7% | -2.5% | -12.5% | -3.4% | +3.2% |
|
O
Realty Income Corporation
Peer
|
+16.8% | +3.4% | +7.2% | +3.9% | -4.0% | -0.1% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
Real Estate Sector Comparison
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPG
Simon Property Group, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $69.25B | 26.6 | 82.5% | 36.5% | $182.73 | |
|
EQIX
Equinix, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $77.23B | 72.47 | 7.7% | 11.8% | $785.57 | |
|
DLR
Digital Realty Trust, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $55.29B | 40.98 | 5.8% | 24.0% | $158.18 | |
|
AMT
American Tower Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $85.95B | 29.23 | 28.8% | 28.1% | $183.59 | |
|
O
Realty Income Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $52.25B | 53.08 | 2.5% | 17.1% | $56.8 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | AEPPEL GLYN F | Director | Purchase | 208 | $38,678 |
| 2025-09-30 | SELIG STEFAN M | Director | Purchase | 195 | $36,260 |
| 2025-09-30 | ROE PEGGY FANG | Director | Purchase | 76 | $14,132 |
| 2025-08-14 | STEWART MARTA R | Director | Purchase | 42 | $7,205 |
| 2025-06-30 | AEPPEL GLYN F | Director | Purchase | 234 | $37,274 |
| 2025-06-30 | STEWART MARTA R | Director | Purchase | 208 | $33,132 |
| 2025-06-30 | ROE PEGGY FANG | Director | Purchase | 86 | $13,699 |
| 2025-06-30 | JONES NINA P. | Director | Purchase | 38 | $6,053 |
| 2025-06-30 | RODKIN GARY M | Director | Purchase | 246 | $39,185 |
| 2025-06-30 | LEIBOWITZ REUBEN S | Director | Purchase | 522 | $83,149 |
| 2025-06-30 | SMITH DANIEL C. | Director | Purchase | 378 | $60,212 |
| 2025-06-26 | SOKOLOV RICHARD S | Director | Gift | 175 | - |
| 2025-06-13 | SOKOLOV RICHARD S | Director | Gift | 25,413 | - |
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets