TGT Target Corporation - Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL
TGT Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
•
Consumer Defensive
•
Discount Stores
Current Price
$89.9
Analyst Target
$100.7
+12.0% Upside
52W High
$158.42
52W Low
$85.36
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
65%
Analysis Accuracy
Target Corporation trades at a deep discount to peers with a compelling 5.07% dividend yield and strong historical ROE of 26.32%, but faces significant headwinds from declining revenue and earnings, with YoY EPS down 20.2% and insider selling totaling $4.53M in the last six months. Valuation appears attractive at a P/E of 10.48 and forward P/E of 8.55 versus sector average of 22.02, yet weakening profitability and negative earnings surprises in 3 of the last 4 quarters raise concerns about sustainability. Price performance remains weak, down 38.4% over the past year, despite a recent stabilization in the last month. Analysts hold a consensus 'hold' rating with a $100.70 target, implying modest 12% upside, but conflicting signals between valuation and fundamentals justify caution.
Key Strengths
Attractive valuation with P/E of 10.48 and forward P/E of 8.55, well below sector average of 22.02
High dividend yield of 5.07% supported by a sustainable 52.21% payout ratio
Strong historical ROE of 26.32%, indicating efficient use of equity capital
Operating margin of 5.43% and gross margin of 27.83% remain stable despite sector pressures
Analyst target price of $100.70 implies 12% upside from current levels
Key Risks
Revenue growth declining YoY by 0.90% and earnings down 20.2%, signaling operational weakness
Earnings misses in 3 of the last 4 quarters with average surprise of -4.47%, eroding confidence
Insider selling of $4.53M in last 6 months suggests lack of confidence among executives
Current ratio of 0.99 and quick ratio of 0.23 indicate tight liquidity and potential working capital strain
Debt/Equity of 1.32 is elevated for a retail operator, increasing financial risk in a high-rate environment
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$100.7
+12.0% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional AI analysis across 5 key categories
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability, Growth & Financial Health
Detailed profit margins, ROE, debt ratios, and liquidity metrics
Sector Comparison & Peer Analysis
Compare TGT against industry averages and similar companies
Insider Trading & Analyst Ratings
Track insider transactions and Wall Street analyst recommendations