VLO Valero Energy Corporation - Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL
VLO Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
•
Energy
•
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Current Price
$181.76
Analyst Target
$182.22
+0.3% Upside
52W High
$183.93
52W Low
$99.0
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
65%
Analysis Accuracy
Valero Energy (VLO) trades near its 52-week high with strong short-term price momentum (+36.1% over 6M, +34.1% over 1Y), underpinned by a sharp rebound in earnings growth (YoY: +209.6%, Q/Q: +200.8%). However, the stock appears richly valued at a P/E of 37.71—nearly double the sector average of 16.48—despite weak profitability metrics, including a subpar 1.28% profit margin and 5.24% ROE versus sector averages of 10.52% and 12.64%, respectively. While the balance sheet is stable with a low 0.40 Debt/Equity and solid liquidity, the 92.72% payout ratio raises sustainability concerns for the 2.49% dividend. Analysts are collectively constructive (buy rating), but missing earnings estimates in all of the last four quarters and lack of insider activity temper conviction.
Key Strengths
Exceptional recent earnings growth: 209.6% YoY and 200.8% Q/Q, signaling strong operational recovery or favorable refining spreads
Solid liquidity position with Current Ratio of 1.60 and Quick Ratio of 1.00, providing resilience in volatile commodity environments
Low leverage relative to sector: Debt/Equity of 0.40 vs. peer average of 0.35, offering financial flexibility
Attractive dividend yield of 2.49%, above the S&P 500 average and competitive within energy sector
Strong multi-year price performance: +296.3% over 5 years, reflecting long-term investor confidence in capital allocation and cyclicality management
Key Risks
Elevated valuation: P/E of 37.71 vs. sector average of 16.48 and peers like COP (12.91) and CVX (22.17), suggesting significant multiple compression risk
Deteriorating revenue: Revenue growth YoY is -3.20%, indicating volume or pricing headwinds despite earnings surge
Unsustainably high payout ratio: 92.72% dividend payout ratio leaves little room for earnings volatility
Poor profitability profile: Profit margin of 1.28% and ROE of 5.24% lag far behind sector averages (10.52% and 12.64%)
Earnings miss streak: 0/4 earnings beats in recent quarters with 0% average surprise, signaling weak execution or forecasting discipline
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$145.0
-20.2% below current price
Performance Snowflake
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Stock Price & Analyst Targets
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Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Valuation Metrics
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Profitability, Growth & Financial Health
Detailed profit margins, ROE, debt ratios, and liquidity metrics
Sector Comparison & Peer Analysis
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Insider Trading & Analyst Ratings
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