WM
NEUTRAL
$209.17
Live
Waste Management, Inc. · NYSE
Target $245.71
(+17.5%)
$194.11
52W Range
$242.58
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Nov 16, 2025
Market cap
$84.27B
P/E
32.89
ROE
29.3%
Profit margin
10.3%
Debt/Equity
2.45
Dividend yield
1.58%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
72%
Waste Management (WM) trades at a premium valuation with solid long-term fundamentals, including strong ROE of 29.33% and consistent revenue growth of 14.90% YoY, outpacing the industrial sector average. However, near-term earnings pressure is evident, with YoY EPS down 20.7% and mixed recent earnings surprises, while the stock has underperformed peers over the past year with a -4.3% return. The company maintains a disciplined dividend policy with a sustainable 50.8% payout ratio, but elevated leverage (Debt/Equity: 2.45) and insider selling—$14.39M in sales by officers including the CFO—raise caution. Analysts remain constructive with a $245.71 target implying ~17% upside, though current P/E of 32.89 exceeds both forward P/E and sector averages, suggesting limited near-term multiple expansion.
Key Strengths
Revenue growth of 14.90% YoY significantly exceeds industrial sector average of 7.02%
High return on equity (29.33%) indicates efficient use of shareholder capital
Operating margin of 18.87% reflects pricing power and cost discipline in a capital-intensive industry
Dividend payout ratio of 50.79% is sustainable given stable cash flows from essential waste services
Analyst target price of $245.71 implies 17.5% upside, signaling continued confidence
Key Risks
Earnings declined 20.7% YoY despite revenue growth, indicating margin compression or one-time costs
Premium valuation: P/E of 32.89 vs sector avg 27.01 and forward P/E of 25.92 limits near-term upside
Debt/Equity ratio of 2.45 is above sector average of 1.77, increasing refinancing risk in high-rate environment
Insider selling activity, including CFO sale of $14.39M, signals lack of confidence at executive level
Current ratio of 0.84 and quick ratio of 0.73 suggest tight short-term liquidity
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$245.71
+17.5% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
65
Strong
58
65
70
55
78
AI Verdict
WM exhibits resilient operational fundamentals and sector-leading revenue growth, supported by essential service demand and strong ROE, but elevated valuation and recent insider selling constrain near-term upside; trading at a premium to peers like NOC and LMT, the stock appears fairly valued only if earnings recover in line with analyst expectations.
Key drivers: Revenue growth outperformance vs industrial peers, Premium valuation requiring flawless execution, Insider selling creating sentiment overhang
Confidence
75%
Value
58/100
WM trades at a valuation premium to industrial peers like NOC (P/E 20.08) and PCAR (P/E 18.74), justified only by superior growth and margin profile, but current multiples appear stretched relative to near-term earnings trajectory.
Positives
- Forward P/E of 25.92 is more reasonable than current P/E of 32.89
- Price/Sales of 3.40 is in line with high-margin industrials
Watchpoints
- Current P/E of 32.89 is significantly above sector average of 27.01
- Price/Book of 8.85 suggests equity overvaluation relative to book value
Future
65/100
Despite robust revenue momentum and a positive 1W price change of +3.6%, the disconnect between top-line growth and bottom-line performance, combined with weak 1Y and 6M returns (-4.3%, -8.3%), suggests market skepticism about profit recovery.
Positives
- Revenue growth of 14.90% YoY indicates strong volume and pricing momentum
- Forward P/E decline suggests improving earnings expectations
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth of -20.70% YoY contradicts revenue strength, raising sustainability concerns
- Mixed quarterly earnings surprises (2 beats in last 4 quarters) signal execution volatility
Past
70/100
WM has delivered strong historical profitability and long-term capital appreciation, but recent earnings misses and margin pressure have disrupted the consistency of its track record, contributing to near-term underperformance.
Positives
- Consistent profitability with operating margin of 18.87% and gross margin of 39.99%
- Long-term share price appreciation of +85.7% over 5 years demonstrates compounding value creation
Watchpoints
- Earnings volatility evident in recent quarters, including -5.7% and -8.6% misses
- 1Y return of -4.3% underperforms sector peers like MMM (+29.7%) and NOC (+13.5%)
Health
55/100
WM’s financial leverage exceeds peer norms (e.g., PCAR at 0.82, NOC at 1.09), and weak liquidity metrics suggest limited buffer against downturns, though essential service cash flows provide some offset.
Positives
- No reported cash burn; business generates stable operating cash flow typical of waste sector
- Debt levels manageable given asset base and contracted revenue streams
Watchpoints
- Debt/Equity ratio of 2.45 is above sector average of 1.77, increasing financial risk
- Current and quick ratios below 1.0 indicate potential short-term liquidity constraints
Dividend
78/100
WM maintains a reliable and well-covered dividend policy typical of mature industrials, though the yield is less attractive than some peers, and lack of dividend growth visibility limits upside for income-focused investors.
Positives
- Dividend yield of 1.58% is modest but supported by a sustainable 50.79% payout ratio
- Consistent annual dividend of $3.30 reflects capital allocation discipline
Watchpoints
- Yield below some high-dividend peers, limiting appeal in income portfolios
- No data on 5-year yield trend or dividend growth history
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$209.17
Analyst Target
$245.71
Upside/Downside
+17.5%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for WM and closest competitors.
Updated 2025-11-14
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
WM
Waste Management, Inc.
Primary
|
+85.7% | +39.5% | -4.3% | -8.3% | -2.1% | +3.6% |
|
UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc.
Peer
|
-29.2% | -40.8% | -4.2% | +19.7% | -14.4% | -0.4% |
|
FDX
FedEx Corporation
Peer
|
+40.1% | +67.7% | +52.2% | +51.8% | -6.6% | +0.8% |
|
JCI
Johnson Controls International plc
Peer
|
+189.6% | +89.8% | +41.2% | +21.7% | +7.1% | -2.9% |
|
CSX
CSX Corporation
Peer
|
+36.9% | +45.2% | +42.6% | +19.4% | -3.9% | +4.8% |
WM
Waste Management, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+85.7%
3Y
+39.5%
1Y
-4.3%
6M
-8.3%
1M
-2.1%
1W
+3.6%
UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-29.2%
3Y
-40.8%
1Y
-4.2%
6M
+19.7%
1M
-14.4%
1W
-0.4%
FDX
FedEx Corporation
Peer
5Y
+40.1%
3Y
+67.7%
1Y
+52.2%
6M
+51.8%
1M
-6.6%
1W
+0.8%
JCI
Johnson Controls International plc
Peer
5Y
+189.6%
3Y
+89.8%
1Y
+41.2%
6M
+21.7%
1M
+7.1%
1W
-2.9%
CSX
CSX Corporation
Peer
5Y
+36.9%
3Y
+45.2%
1Y
+42.6%
6M
+19.4%
1M
-3.9%
1W
+4.8%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
32.89
Forward P/E
25.92
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
8.85
P/S Ratio
3.4
EV/Revenue
4.34
EV/EBITDA
14.77
Market Cap
$84.27B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
10.35%
Operating Margin
18.87%
Gross Margin
39.99%
ROE
29.33%
ROA
7.05%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+14.9%
Earnings Growth
-20.7%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-20.7%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
2.45
High debt
Current Ratio
0.84
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.73
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.43
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-01-28
$N/A
2025-10-27
$1.98
-1.6% surprise
2025-07-28
$1.92
+1.8% surprise
2025-04-28
$1.67
+5.3% surprise
Industrials Sector Comparison
Comparing WM against 122 companies in the Industrials sector
(10 bullish, 55 neutral, 57 bearish)
P/E Ratio
32.89
This Stock
vs
73.04
Sector Avg
-55.0%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
29.33%
This Stock
vs
10.87%
Sector Avg
+169.9%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
10.35%
This Stock
vs
56.42%
Sector Avg
-81.7%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
2.45
This Stock
vs
5.54
Sector Avg
-55.7%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
14.9%
This Stock
vs
21.48%
Sector Avg
-30.6%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.84
This Stock
vs
2.75
Sector Avg
-69.3%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
WM
Waste Management, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $84.27B | 32.89 | 29.3% | 10.3% | $209.17 | |
|
UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc.
|
BULLISH | $83.21B | 14.93 | 33.8% | 6.3% | $97.93 | |
|
FDX
FedEx Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $85.98B | 19.23 | 15.9% | 4.9% | $360.32 | |
|
JCI
Johnson Controls International plc
|
NEUTRAL | $78.66B | 44.97 | 11.4% | 13.9% | $118.72 | |
|
CSX
CSX Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $77.14B | 26.94 | 22.5% | 20.5% | $41.48 |
WM
Waste Management, Inc.
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$84.3B
P/E
32.9
ROE
29.3%
Price
$209.17
UPS
United Parcel...
BULLISH
Mkt Cap
$83.2B
P/E
14.9
ROE
33.8%
Price
$97.93
FDX
FedEx Corporation
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$86.0B
P/E
19.2
ROE
15.9%
Price
$360.32
JCI
Johnson...
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$78.7B
P/E
45.0
ROE
11.4%
Price
$118.72
CSX
CSX Corporation
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$77.1B
P/E
26.9
ROE
22.5%
Price
$41.48
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | REED DAVID L. | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 2,628 | - |
| 2025-11-03 | MENKE SEAN EDWARD | Director | Purchase | 2,000 | $392,840 |
| 2025-09-04 | STITH KIMBERLY G. | Officer | Sale | 100 | $22,520 |
| 2025-09-02 | HEMMER TARA J | Officer | Stock Award | 9,130 | - |
| 2025-07-15 | BENE THOMAS L | Director | Stock Award | 696 | $158,302 |
| 2025-07-15 | SYLVESTER MARYROSE T | Director | Stock Award | 696 | $158,302 |
| 2025-07-15 | GLUSKI ANDRES RICARDO | Director | Stock Award | 696 | $158,302 |
| 2025-07-15 | CHINN BRUCE E. | Director | Stock Award | 696 | $158,302 |
| 2025-07-15 | HOLT VICTORIA M | Director | Stock Award | 696 | $158,302 |
| 2025-07-15 | PLUMMER WILLIAM B | Director | Stock Award | 696 | $158,302 |
| 2025-07-15 | MAZZARELLA KATHLEEN M. | Director | Stock Award | 1,063 | $241,774 |
| 2025-07-15 | MENKE SEAN EDWARD | Director | Stock Award | 696 | $158,302 |
| 2025-05-30 | CARRASCO RAFAEL | Officer | Sale | 1,941 | $465,840 |
| 2025-05-30 | BOETTCHER CHARLES C | Officer | Option Exercise | 15,072 | $1,670,128 |
| 2025-05-30 | CARRASCO RAFAEL | Officer | Option Exercise | 2,319 | $256,968 |
REED DAVID L.
Chief Financial Officer
2025-11-03
2,628 shares
MENKE SEAN EDWARD
Director
2025-11-03
2,000 shares
·
$392,840
STITH KIMBERLY G.
Officer
2025-09-04
100 shares
·
$22,520
HEMMER TARA J
Officer
2025-09-02
9,130 shares
BENE THOMAS L
Director
2025-07-15
696 shares
·
$158,302
SYLVESTER MARYROSE T
Director
2025-07-15
696 shares
·
$158,302
GLUSKI ANDRES RICARDO
Director
2025-07-15
696 shares
·
$158,302
CHINN BRUCE E.
Director
2025-07-15
696 shares
·
$158,302
HOLT VICTORIA M
Director
2025-07-15
696 shares
·
$158,302
PLUMMER WILLIAM B
Director
2025-07-15
696 shares
·
$158,302
MAZZARELLA KATHLEEN M.
Director
2025-07-15
1,063 shares
·
$241,774
MENKE SEAN EDWARD
Director
2025-07-15
696 shares
·
$158,302
CARRASCO RAFAEL
Officer
2025-05-30
1,941 shares
·
$465,840
BOETTCHER CHARLES C
Officer
2025-05-30
15,072 shares
·
$1,670,128
CARRASCO RAFAEL
Officer
2025-05-30
2,319 shares
·
$256,968
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
24 analysts
Wells Fargo
2025-11-14
Overweight
Bernstein
2025-11-12
Outperform
Baird
2025-11-04
Neutral
Outperform
UBS
2025-10-31
Neutral
Neutral
CIBC
2025-10-29
Neutral
Neutral
Citigroup
2025-10-29
Buy
Buy
Stifel
2025-10-29
Buy
Buy
RBC Capital
2025-10-29
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
JP Morgan
2025-10-29
Overweight
Overweight
Scotiabank
2025-10-29
Sector Outperform
Sector Outperform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning WM from our newsroom.
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No matching news yet.