AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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AAOI Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
Technology
Communication Equipment
Current Price
Live
$51.68
Analyst Target
$36.6
-29.2%
Downside
52W High
$54.3
52W Low
$9.71
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Feb 21, 2026
Market cap
$3.53B
P/E
N/A
ROE
-40.4%
Profit margin
-37.0%
Debt/Equity
0.42
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
85%
Analysis Accuracy
AAOI's deterministic health scores are severely compromised: the Piotroski F-Score of 0/9 signals extreme financial distress, with no positive indicators in profitability, leverage, or cash flow. The Altman Z-Score is unavailable, but the company's negative ROE (-40.43%), negative profit margin (-36.97%), and persistent earnings shortfalls underscore deep operational weakness. Despite strong revenue growth (82.10% YoY), the stock trades at a forward P/E of 62.08—well above the sector average—suggesting overvaluation relative to earnings. Insider selling totaling $3.33M in six months further undermines confidence, while analyst targets ($36.60) imply a significant downside from the current $51.68 price.
Key Strengths
Strong revenue growth of 82.10% YoY indicates market demand and potential scalability
Healthy current ratio (2.31) and quick ratio (1.45) suggest short-term liquidity resilience
Gross margin of 29.33% reflects operational efficiency in production and cost control
Market cap of $3.53B places it in a mid-tier technology growth segment with visibility
Recent 6-month price appreciation of +108.5% reflects strong momentum among retail investors
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 0/9 indicates severe financial distress and lack of operational stability
Negative profit margin (-36.97%) and ROE (-40.43%) signal persistent unprofitability and capital inefficiency
Insider selling of $3.33M in six months reflects lack of confidence from leadership
Forward P/E of 62.08 is extremely high relative to negative earnings and weak fundamentals
Earnings surprise average of -88.10% over last four quarters indicates severe forecasting and execution issues
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$36.6
-29.2% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
23
Weak
25
55
20
15
0
AI Verdict
Weak
Key drivers: Piotroski F-Score of 0/9, Negative earnings and ROE, High forward P/E with no earnings, Insider selling, Earnings surprise of -88.10%
Confidence
85%
Value
25/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Price/Sales of 8.37 is below sector average of 10.5 (implied)
- Gross margin of 29.33% is above sector average
Watchpoints
- Forward P/E of 62.08 is extremely high for a negative earnings company
- No Graham Number or intrinsic value available due to negative earnings
- Stock trades at a premium despite unprofitability
Future
55/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- 82.10% YoY revenue growth suggests strong market demand
- High growth expectations priced into forward P/E
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth is negative (-33.3% YoY)
- Q/Q EPS growth of -75.0% indicates deteriorating profitability
- No forward earnings guidance or positive outlook
Past
20/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Consistent revenue growth over multiple quarters
- Some quarters beat estimates (e.g., 2025-05-08)
Watchpoints
- Average earnings surprise of -88.10% over last 4 quarters
- Persistent negative earnings and declining ROE
- Negative ROA (-4.46%) and ROIC unavailable
Health
15/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current ratio of 2.31 and quick ratio of 1.45 indicate liquidity strength
- Debt/Equity of 0.42 is below sector average (0.70)
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 0/9 indicates complete failure on financial health metrics
- Negative ROE and ROA signal capital destruction
- No Altman Z-Score available, but financial distress is evident
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- No dividend yield or payout ratio
- Dividend strength of 0/100 indicates no dividend policy
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$51.68
Analyst Target
$36.6
Upside/Downside
-29.2%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AAOI and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-02-20
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
Primary
|
+340.2% | +1800.0% | +87.9% | +108.5% | +34.6% | +16.2% |
|
BL
BlackLine, Inc.
Peer
|
-60.8% | -23.5% | -12.2% | -5.2% | -7.6% | +0.8% |
|
BOX
Box, Inc.
Peer
|
+50.8% | -15.7% | -15.8% | -19.7% | -11.1% | +2.4% |
|
AVT
Avnet, Inc.
Peer
|
+47.0% | +23.1% | -3.7% | -3.7% | +3.3% | +0.0% |
|
ACIW
ACI Worldwide, Inc.
Peer
|
-3.2% | +58.9% | -20.9% | -17.1% | -4.7% | +3.3% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
N/A
Forward P/E
62.08
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
6.29
P/S Ratio
8.37
EV/Revenue
8.6
EV/EBITDA
-146.68
Market Cap
$3.53B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
-36.97%
Operating Margin
-15.33%
Gross Margin
29.33%
ROE
-40.43%
ROA
-4.46%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+82.1%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.42
Low debt
Current Ratio
2.31
Strong
Quick Ratio
1.45
Good
Cash/Share
$2.01
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-26
$N/A
2025-11-06
$-0.28
-194.7% surprise
2025-08-07
$-0.16
-116.2% surprise
2025-05-08
$-0.02
+46.7% surprise
Technology Sector Comparison
Comparing AAOI against 149 companies in the Technology sector
(11 bullish, 67 neutral, 71 bearish)
Return on Equity (ROE)
-40.43%
This Stock
vs
-6.46%
Sector Avg
+525.4%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
-36.97%
This Stock
vs
-9.26%
Sector Avg
+299.2%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
0.42
This Stock
vs
0.7
Sector Avg
-39.7%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
82.1%
This Stock
vs
61.74%
Sector Avg
+33.0%
(Fast Growth)
Current Ratio
2.31
This Stock
vs
3.39
Sector Avg
-31.9%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $3.53B | - | -40.4% | -37.0% | $51.68 | |
|
BL
BlackLine, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $3.29B | 48.25 | 22.2% | 11.1% | $53.08 | |
|
BOX
Box, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $3.79B | 21.35 | 204.3% | 19.8% | $26.48 | |
|
AVT
Avnet, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $4.13B | 18.97 | 4.7% | 1.0% | $50.83 | |
|
ACIW
ACI Worldwide, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $4.22B | 16.55 | 18.6% | 15.1% | $40.88 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 | KUO DAVID C. | Officer | Sale | 20,000 | $1,002,905 |
| 2026-02-11 | MURRY STEFAN J | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 18,020 | $898,689 |
| 2026-02-09 | CHANG HUNG-LUN FRED | Officer | Stock Award | 25,799 | - |
| 2026-02-09 | YEH SHU-HUA JOSHUA | Officer | Stock Award | 25,799 | - |
| 2026-02-09 | LIN CHIH-HSIANG THOMPSON | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 82,559 | - |
| 2026-02-09 | KUO DAVID C. | Officer | Stock Award | 17,027 | - |
| 2026-02-09 | MURRY STEFAN J | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 32,249 | - |
| 2026-01-28 | KUO DAVID C. | Officer | Sale | 12,000 | $540,660 |
| 2026-01-15 | MURRY STEFAN J | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 66 | $2,311 |
| 2026-01-13 | MURRY STEFAN J | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 3,934 | $133,932 |
| 2025-12-23 | KUO DAVID C. | Officer | Sale | 12,500 | $501,875 |
| 2025-12-15 | LOBOA ELIZABETH G | Director | Sale | 4,121 | $124,584 |
| 2025-12-11 | MURRY STEFAN J | Chief Financial Officer | Gift | 1,000 | - |
| 2025-12-10 | MURRY STEFAN J | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 4,000 | $126,213 |
| 2025-11-26 | BLACK RICHARD B | Director | Gift | 600 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
5 analysts
Rosenblatt
2026-02-19
Buy
Buy
Rosenblatt
2025-12-19
Buy
Buy
Rosenblatt
2025-12-11
Buy
Buy
Needham
2025-12-11
Buy
Buy
Northland Capital Markets
2025-11-17
Outperform
Outperform
B. Riley Securities
2025-11-10
Neutral
Sell
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AAOI from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.