AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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AAOI Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
Technology
Communication Equipment
Current Price
Live
$44.46
Analyst Target
$36.6
-17.7%
Downside
52W High
$50.8
52W Low
$9.71
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Feb 14, 2026
Market cap
$3.04B
P/E
N/A
ROE
-40.4%
Profit margin
-37.0%
Debt/Equity
0.42
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
88%
Analysis Accuracy
AAOI's deterministic health scores signal severe financial distress: the Piotroski F-Score of 0/9 indicates extreme weakness in operational and financial health, with no positive signals across profitability, leverage, or cash flow metrics. The absence of an Altman Z-Score and the company's negative profitability (ROE: -40.43%, Profit Margin: -36.97%) confirm deep operational inefficiencies. Despite strong revenue growth (82.10% YoY), earnings remain persistently negative with a massive -88.10% average earnings surprise over the last four quarters, undermining confidence in sustainable performance. Insider selling totaling $3.33M in six months further erodes trust, while the stock trades at a rich forward P/E of 53.41—well above sector averages—suggesting overvaluation relative to fundamentals.
Key Strengths
82.10% YoY revenue growth indicates strong top-line momentum in a competitive sector
Gross margin of 29.33% suggests some pricing power and cost control in production
Current ratio of 2.31 and quick ratio of 1.45 reflect solid short-term liquidity
Debt/Equity ratio of 0.42 is relatively conservative, indicating manageable leverage
Historical stock performance shows strong long-term appreciation (5Y: +246.5%)
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 0/9 signals extreme financial distress with no positive financial health indicators
Persistent negative earnings and profitability (ROE: -40.43%, Profit Margin: -36.97%) despite revenue growth
Massive earnings misses: average surprise of -88.10% over last 4 quarters, indicating unreliable guidance
Insider selling of $3.33M in 6 months with no buys, signaling lack of confidence from leadership
Forward P/E of 53.41 is extremely high relative to negative earnings, suggesting overvaluation
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
25
Weak
25
55
28
15
0
AI Verdict
Weak
Key drivers: Piotroski F-Score of 0/9, Negative profitability and earnings quality, High forward P/E with no earnings, Insider selling, Poor earnings surprise history
Confidence
88%
Value
25/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Price/Sales of 7.20 is below some peers (e.g., BLKB at 10.5+)
- Gross margin of 29.33% is above sector average
Watchpoints
- Forward P/E of 53.41 is extremely high given negative earnings
- No Graham Number or intrinsic value due to negative earnings
- Price is 12.7% below 52-week high but still elevated relative to fundamentals
Future
55/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- 82.10% YoY revenue growth is exceptional
- Strong top-line momentum in communication equipment sector
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth is negative (-33.3% YoY) despite revenue growth
- Q/Q EPS growth of -75.0% indicates worsening profitability
- No forward earnings guidance or positive trend in earnings surprises
Past
28/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 5-year stock return of +246.5% shows strong historical performance
- Consistent revenue growth over multiple quarters
Watchpoints
- Persistent negative earnings since 2020
- Average earnings surprise of -88.10% over last 4 quarters
- ROE has been negative for multiple years
Health
15/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current ratio of 2.31 and quick ratio of 1.45 indicate strong liquidity
- Debt/Equity of 0.42 is low and conservative
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 0/9 is the lowest possible, indicating severe financial distress
- No positive signals in profitability, cash flow, or leverage
- Altman Z-Score not available, but Piotroski score implies high bankruptcy risk
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- No dividend yield or payout ratio
- Dividend strength score of 0/100
- Negative earnings make dividend sustainability impossible
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$44.46
Analyst Target
$36.6
Upside/Downside
-17.7%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AAOI and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-02-13
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
Primary
|
+246.5% | +1546.7% | +64.4% | +98.8% | +29.0% | +0.4% |
|
ACLS
Axcelis Technologies, Inc.
Peer
|
+133.8% | -25.8% | +52.5% | +17.4% | +1.4% | +9.8% |
|
BL
BlackLine, Inc.
Peer
|
-60.8% | -23.5% | -12.2% | -5.2% | -7.6% | +0.8% |
|
AMBA
Ambarella, Inc.
Peer
|
-46.0% | -34.2% | -19.1% | -1.4% | -9.8% | -0.6% |
|
BLKB
Blackbaud, Inc.
Peer
|
-14.3% | -11.3% | -26.1% | -13.8% | -11.1% | +1.6% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
N/A
Forward P/E
53.41
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
5.41
P/S Ratio
7.2
EV/Revenue
7.43
EV/EBITDA
-126.74
Market Cap
$3.04B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
-36.97%
Operating Margin
-15.33%
Gross Margin
29.33%
ROE
-40.43%
ROA
-4.46%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+82.1%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.42
Low debt
Current Ratio
2.31
Strong
Quick Ratio
1.45
Good
Cash/Share
$2.01
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-26
$N/A
2025-11-06
$-0.28
-194.7% surprise
2025-08-07
$-0.16
-116.2% surprise
2025-05-08
$-0.02
+46.7% surprise
Technology Sector Comparison
Comparing AAOI against 149 companies in the Technology sector
(11 bullish, 68 neutral, 70 bearish)
Return on Equity (ROE)
-40.43%
This Stock
vs
-6.46%
Sector Avg
+525.8%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
-36.97%
This Stock
vs
-9.27%
Sector Avg
+299.0%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
0.42
This Stock
vs
0.7
Sector Avg
-39.7%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
82.1%
This Stock
vs
61.63%
Sector Avg
+33.2%
(Fast Growth)
Current Ratio
2.31
This Stock
vs
3.39
Sector Avg
-32.0%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $3.04B | - | -40.4% | -37.0% | $44.46 | |
|
ACLS
Axcelis Technologies, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $2.93B | 21.34 | 13.6% | 15.9% | $94.55 | |
|
BL
BlackLine, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $3.29B | 48.25 | 22.2% | 11.1% | $53.08 | |
|
AMBA
Ambarella, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $2.74B | - | -13.9% | -21.3% | $63.64 | |
|
BLKB
Blackbaud, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $2.73B | - | -77.2% | -22.2% | $56.34 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 | MURRY STEFAN J | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 18,020 | $898,689 |
| 2026-02-11 | KUO DAVID C. | Officer | Sale | 20,000 | $1,002,905 |
| 2026-02-09 | MURRY STEFAN J | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 32,249 | - |
| 2026-02-09 | CHANG HUNG-LUN FRED | Officer | Stock Award | 25,799 | - |
| 2026-02-09 | YEH SHU-HUA JOSHUA | Officer | Stock Award | 25,799 | - |
| 2026-02-09 | LIN CHIH-HSIANG THOMPSON | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 82,559 | - |
| 2026-02-09 | KUO DAVID C. | Officer | Stock Award | 17,027 | - |
| 2026-01-28 | KUO DAVID C. | Officer | Sale | 12,000 | $540,660 |
| 2026-01-15 | MURRY STEFAN J | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 66 | $2,311 |
| 2026-01-13 | MURRY STEFAN J | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 3,934 | $133,932 |
| 2025-12-23 | KUO DAVID C. | Officer | Sale | 12,500 | $501,875 |
| 2025-12-15 | LOBOA ELIZABETH G | Director | Sale | 4,121 | $124,584 |
| 2025-12-11 | MURRY STEFAN J | Chief Financial Officer | Gift | 1,000 | - |
| 2025-12-10 | MURRY STEFAN J | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 4,000 | $126,213 |
| 2025-11-26 | BLACK RICHARD B | Director | Gift | 600 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
NONE
5 analysts
Rosenblatt
2025-12-19
Buy
Buy
Rosenblatt
2025-12-11
Buy
Buy
Needham
2025-12-11
Buy
Buy
Northland Capital Markets
2025-11-17
Outperform
Outperform
B. Riley Securities
2025-11-10
Neutral
Sell
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AAOI from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.