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ADMA

BEARISH
$15.15 Live
ADMA Biologics, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $25.67 (+69.4%)
$13.76 52W Range $25.67

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AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
ADMA's Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicates weak financial health, signaling distress risk despite strong profitability metrics. The company trades at a high P/E of 25.25 and Price/Sales of 7.07, significantly above sector averages, suggesting overvaluation. While gross and operating margins are impressive (57.38% and 45.09%), earnings have collapsed YoY by 52.8%, undermining growth credibility. Insider selling totaling $1.58M in the last six months, including multiple large sales by the CEO, reinforces bearish sentiment. The Graham Number of $5.21 and intrinsic value of $4.2 suggest deep undervaluation, but the current price of $15.15 reflects a premium driven by speculative growth expectations rather than fundamentals.

Key Strengths

Exceptional gross and operating margins (57.38% and 45.09%) indicate strong pricing power and cost control
High ROE of 35.56% demonstrates efficient use of equity capital
Low debt/equity ratio of 0.17 and high current ratio of 6.71 signal strong financial stability
Recent quarterly earnings have shown positive surprises, including a 62.5% beat in Q2 2024
Analyst consensus remains strong_buy, with a target price of $25.67, implying upside potential

Key Risks

Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicates weak financial health and high distress risk
Earnings have declined sharply by 52.8% YoY, contradicting revenue growth of 18.4%
Insider selling of $1.58M in six months, including multiple large sales by the CEO, signals lack of confidence
No Altman Z-Score available, but the low Piotroski score raises bankruptcy risk concerns
Stock trades at a premium to Graham Number ($5.21) and intrinsic value ($4.2), suggesting overvaluation
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$4.2
-72.3% below current price

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