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ADP Automatic Data Processing, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

NEUTRAL
ADP Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ Technology Software - Application
Current Price
$253.09
Analyst Target
$293.23
+15.9% Upside
52W High
$329.93
52W Low
$249.68

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Nov 16, 2025
Market cap
$102.98B
P/E
25.01
ROE
70.6%
Profit margin
19.8%
Debt/Equity
1.55
Dividend yield
2.69%

AI Analysis

Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms

Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
ADP trades at a premium valuation with solid profitability and consistent earnings execution, but faces headwinds from near-term price underperformance and bearish insider activity. The stock has declined 19.9% over the past six months despite stable 7.1% YoY revenue growth and a strong ROE of 70.57%, which significantly exceeds the sector average of 24.83%. While its P/E of 25x is reasonable relative to its quality, it appears rich compared to high-growth peers like Snowflake and Marvell, especially given modest single-digit earnings growth. Analysts concur with a hold rating and a $293.23 target implying 15.9% upside, though insider selling worth $43.61M over the last six months raises caution about near-term sentiment.

Key Strengths

Exceptional ROE of 70.57% vs sector avg of 24.83%, indicating superior capital efficiency and pricing power
Consistent earnings beat streak: 3 out of last 4 quarters beat estimates with an average surprise of 2.08%
High profitability: 25.89% operating margin and 19.79% net margin, both above sector averages
Attractive dividend yield of 2.69% with a sustainable 60.81% payout ratio
Resilient business model in HR/payroll SaaS with recurring revenue and low customer churn

Key Risks

Rich valuation: P/E of 25x and Price/Book of 16.08 appear stretched vs modest 7.1% revenue growth
Bearish insider activity: $43.61M in net insider sales over last 6 months with no buys
Weak short-term price momentum: -19.9% over 6 months and trading near 52-week low of $249.68
Elevated Debt/Equity of 1.55 vs sector avg of 0.74, increasing financial risk in rising rate environment
Low liquidity: Quick ratio of 0.27 suggests potential near-term cash flow pressure despite stable operations
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$293.23
+15.9% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
69
Strong
Value
60
Future
65
Past
80
Health
55
Dividend
85
AI Verdict
ADP demonstrates high-quality profitability and dividend reliability but trades at a premium to growth, with limited near-term catalysts relative to high-flying software peers like Snowflake and Marvell that are capturing market share in faster-growing segments.
Key drivers: Superior historical profitability and ROE, Stable dividend and capital return policy, Premium valuation constraining near-term upside
Confidence
75%
Value
60/100

While ADP’s multiples are far below hyper-growth tech peers like Snowflake (no P/E) or Cadence (81x), its valuation is unattractive relative to its own growth trajectory and exceeds fair value without margin expansion or acceleration.

Positives
  • Forward P/E of 23.28 is below sector average of 138.37
  • Price/Sales of 4.93 is reasonable for a mature SaaS provider
Watchpoints
  • P/E of 25x appears high relative to 7.1% revenue growth (PEG implied >3.5)
  • Price/Book of 16.08 is extremely elevated, suggesting overvaluation on asset base
Future
65/100

ADP’s growth trajectory remains steady but unspectacular, with no evidence of acceleration in revenue or earnings momentum, while price action shows persistent underperformance versus high-beta software peers benefiting from AI and cloud tailwinds.

Positives
  • Consistent YoY EPS growth of 6.9% and Q/Q growth of 10.2% in most recent quarter
  • Stable demand for core payroll and HCM solutions in large enterprise segment
Watchpoints
  • Revenue growth of 7.1% lags sector average of 20.75%
  • No visible inflection in price momentum; 6M return of -19.9% vs peer median gain
Past
80/100

ADP has a stellar track record of earnings delivery and margin stability, but share price performance has deteriorated sharply in the past year, suggesting valuation digestion or macro sensitivity despite strong fundamentals.

Positives
  • 24 out of 25 quarters beat EPS estimates, with only one miss in the last six years
  • Profit margins and ROE have remained consistently high, demonstrating operational discipline
Watchpoints
  • 1Y price return of -14.4% underperforms both 3Y (+6.6%) and 5Y (+58.4%) trends
  • Recent quarters show decelerating surprise magnitude despite continued beats
Health
55/100

ADP’s balance sheet is leveraged relative to peers, and weak liquidity metrics raise concerns about near-term flexibility, though ongoing operations appear sufficient to service obligations given stable cash flows.

Positives
  • Operating cash flow supports dividend and debt servicing (implied by stable payout)
  • Debt appears manageable given investment-grade profile and stable EBIT
Watchpoints
  • Debt/Equity of 1.55 is more than double the sector average of 0.74
  • Very low quick ratio of 0.27 indicates limited liquid assets to cover short-term liabilities
Dividend
85/100

ADP offers a reliable and well-covered dividend that enhances total return appeal, particularly for income-oriented investors, though lack of growth transparency tempers enthusiasm.

Positives
  • Dividend yield of 2.69% is attractive in current rate environment
  • 60.81% payout ratio is sustainable given stable earnings and cash flow
Watchpoints
  • No data on 5-year yield average or dividend growth trend limits visibility into policy consistency
  • Dividend growth may be constrained by high leverage and capex needs

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$253.09
Analyst Target
$293.23
Upside/Downside
+15.9%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ADP and closest competitors.

Updated 2025-11-14
Company 5Y 3Y 1Y 6M 1M 1W
ADP
Automatic Data Processing, Inc.
Primary
+58.4% +6.6% -14.4% -19.9% -10.9% -0.4%
ADI
Analog Devices, Inc.
Peer
+85.9% +50.0% +12.6% +4.3% -1.4% +2.8%
SNOW
Snowflake Inc.
Peer
+6.3% +57.2% +98.8% +40.4% +6.7% -2.2%
CDNS
Cadence Design Systems, Inc.
Peer
+174.2% +86.6% +3.9% -2.1% -2.8% -3.1%
MRVL
Marvell Technology, Inc.
Peer
+103.8% +95.7% -4.4% +35.8% -2.7% -4.9%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
25.01
Forward P/E
23.28
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
16.08
P/S Ratio
4.93
EV/Revenue
5.0
EV/EBITDA
17.16
Market Cap
$102.98B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 19.79%
Operating Margin 25.89%
Gross Margin 48.31%
ROE 70.57%
ROA 6.62%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +7.1%
Earnings Growth +6.4%
Q/Q Revenue Growth N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth +5.9%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
1.55
High debt
Current Ratio
1.05
Good
Quick Ratio
0.27
Poor
Cash/Share
$19.03

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-01-28
$N/A
2025-10-29
$2.49
+1.8% surprise
2025-07-30
$2.26
+1.5% surprise
2025-04-30
$3.06
+2.9% surprise

Technology Sector Comparison

Comparing ADP against 38 companies in the Technology sector (13 bullish, 18 neutral, 1 bearish)
P/E Ratio
25.01
This Stock
vs
114.31
Sector Avg
-78.1% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
70.57%
This Stock
vs
25.54%
Sector Avg
+176.3% (Excellent)
Profit Margin
19.79%
This Stock
vs
17.79%
Sector Avg
+11.2% (Superior)
Debt to Equity
1.55
This Stock
vs
0.78
Sector Avg
+98.7% (Higher)
Revenue Growth
7.1%
This Stock
vs
19.4%
Sector Avg
-63.4% (Slower)
Current Ratio
1.05
This Stock
vs
1.97
Sector Avg
-46.6% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Company AI Rating Market Cap P/E ROE Profit Margin Price
ADP
Automatic Data Processing, Inc.
NEUTRAL $102.98B 25.01 70.6% 19.8% $253.09
ADI
Analog Devices, Inc.
BULLISH $116.85B 59.92 5.7% 18.8% $234.89
SNOW
Snowflake Inc.
NEUTRAL $87.08B - -42.4% -33.5% $257.02
CDNS
Cadence Design Systems, Inc.
BULLISH $86.01B 81.38 21.7% 20.4% $314.93
MRVL
Marvell Technology, Inc.
NEUTRAL $75.45B - -0.7% -1.4% $86.45

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

Date Insider Position Transaction Shares Value
2025-09-12 RODRIGUEZ CARLOS ANTONIO Director Sale 4,086 $1,206,425
2025-09-10 RODRIGUEZ CARLOS ANTONIO Director Sale 43,900 $12,952,553
2025-09-10 D'AMBROSIO CHRISTOPHER Officer Sale 597 $177,249
2025-09-10 RODRIGUEZ CARLOS ANTONIO Director Option Exercise 43,900 $9,081,154
2025-09-09 BONARTI MICHAEL A Officer Sale 8,728 $2,604,697
2025-09-05 RODRIGUEZ CARLOS ANTONIO Director Sale 12,056 $3,582,032
2025-09-04 RODRIGUEZ CARLOS ANTONIO Director Sale 23,402 $7,004,406
2025-09-03 MCGUIRE DONALD Officer Sale 13,599 $4,033,055
2025-09-03 BLACK MARIA Chief Executive Officer Sale 23,605 $7,041,744
2025-09-03 DESILVA JOSEPH Officer Sale 4,614 $1,368,374
2025-09-03 FOSKETT DAVID Officer Sale 1,373 $407,191
2025-09-02 DESILVA JOSEPH Officer Sale 1,987 $599,359
2025-09-02 BLACK MARIA Chief Executive Officer Sale 7,721 $2,315,777
2025-09-02 FOSKETT DAVID Officer Sale 1,043 $314,079
2025-09-02 BLACK MARIA Chief Executive Officer Option Exercise 7,721 $1,597,166
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
HOLD
13 analysts
JP Morgan
2025-10-30
Maintains
Underweight Underweight
Wells Fargo
2025-10-30
Maintains
Underweight Underweight
Wells Fargo
2025-10-22
init
Underweight
UBS
2025-09-17
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Stifel
2025-07-31
Maintains
Hold Hold
Morgan Stanley
2025-07-31
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
BMO Capital
2025-07-10
init
Market Perform
Morgan Stanley
2025-06-17
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
Mizuho
2025-06-13
Maintains
Outperform Outperform
UBS
2025-06-13
Maintains
Neutral Neutral