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ADPT Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation - Fundamental Analysis

BEARISH
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ADPT Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ Healthcare Biotechnology
Current Price Live
$15.2
Analyst Target
$20.86
+37.2% Upside
52W High
$20.76
52W Low
$6.25

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Feb 21, 2026
Market cap
$2.34B
P/E
N/A
ROE
-27.8%
Profit margin
-21.5%
Debt/Equity
0.93
Dividend yield
N/A

AI Analysis

Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms

Confidence Score
85%
Analysis Accuracy
ADPT's Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals significant financial health concerns: a Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 indicates severe operational weakness, and the absence of an Altman Z-Score raises distress risk concerns. Despite strong revenue growth (51% YoY) and impressive earnings surprises (74.22% average), the company remains unprofitable with negative margins and ROE, trading at a premium valuation (Price/Sales 8.44, P/B 10.68). Insider selling totaling $9.76M in six months signals bearish sentiment, and the stock has underperformed over the long term (5Y change: -73.2%). These factors collectively point to high risk despite short-term momentum.

Key Strengths

Strong revenue growth of 51% YoY, outpacing sector average
Consistently beating earnings estimates in the last 4 quarters (3/4 beats)
High average earnings surprise of 74.22% over the last 4 quarters
Positive gross margin of 40.38% indicates pricing power and efficient production
High analyst consensus with a 'strong_buy' recommendation from 7 analysts

Key Risks

Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 indicates extreme financial distress and operational weakness
Negative profitability metrics: -21.48% profit margin, -27.82% ROE, and negative earnings
Significant insider selling (13 transactions, $9.76M) with no buys in 6 months
No Altman Z-Score available, but high debt/equity (0.93) and negative cash flow suggest distress risk
Stock trades at a premium valuation (Price/Sales 8.44, Price/Book 10.68) despite unprofitability

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
35
Weak
Value
35
Future
68
Past
52
Health
20
Dividend
0
AI Verdict
High Risk
Key drivers: Low Piotroski F-Score (1/9), Negative profitability and ROE, High insider selling, Premium valuation without earnings support, Weak long-term price performance
Confidence
88%
Value
35/100

Valuation is based on growth expectations, not fundamentals; stock trades at a premium due to high growth potential but lacks earnings support.

Positives
  • High revenue growth (51% YoY)
  • Strong earnings surprise history (74.22% avg)
  • Gross margin of 40.38%
Watchpoints
  • No Graham Number or intrinsic value due to negative earnings
  • Price/Sales of 8.44 is high for a loss-making company
  • Forward P/E of -56.30 reflects deep unprofitability
Future
68/100

Future outlook is optimistic on growth but highly speculative due to persistent losses and lack of cash conversion.

Positives
  • 51% YoY revenue growth
  • Recent earnings beats and positive surprises
  • Strong analyst target price ($20.86)
Watchpoints
  • Negative earnings and ROE
  • Forward P/E of -56.30 indicates no near-term profitability
  • No free cash flow data available
Past
52/100

Past performance shows improvement in earnings surprise but persistent unprofitability and declining long-term returns.

Positives
  • Consistent earnings beat rate (3/4 in last 4 quarters)
  • Improving EPS trend (60.9% YoY EPS growth)
  • Positive Q/Q EPS growth of -250.0% (likely due to base effect)
Watchpoints
  • 5-year price decline of -73.2%
  • Negative ROE and ROA for multiple years
  • Historical losses with no sustained profitability
Health
20/100

Despite strong liquidity, the company's operational and financial health is weak, with minimal profitability and high risk of deterioration.

Positives
  • Current ratio of 3.34 and quick ratio of 3.08 indicate strong liquidity
  • Debt/Equity of 0.93 is moderate
Watchpoints
  • Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 signals severe financial distress
  • No Altman Z-Score available; risk of distress is elevated
  • Negative ROE (-27.82%) and ROA (-6.79%) indicate poor capital efficiency
Dividend
0/100

No dividend policy; all capital is reinvested into growth, which is typical for early-stage biotech but increases risk for income investors.

Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
  • No dividend yield or payout ratio
  • Dividend strength of 0/100
  • Company is not dividend-paying

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$15.2
Analyst Target
$20.86
Upside/Downside
+37.2%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ADPT and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-02-20
Company 5Y 3Y 1Y 6M 1M 1W
ADPT
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation
Primary
-73.2% +72.7% +82.5% +16.9% -13.5% -5.2%
AAPG
Ascentage Pharma Group Internat
Peer
+43.4% +43.4% +26.7% -48.0% -5.5% +4.7%
ATEC
Alphatec Holdings, Inc.
Peer
+4.7% +20.4% +33.9% +44.4% -24.8% -11.9%
BHC
Bausch Health Companies Inc.
Peer
-78.1% -29.4% -24.3% -12.7% -17.7% -15.3%
ADUS
Addus HomeCare Corporation
Peer
-0.0% +9.6% +3.0% -2.5% +5.2% +1.5%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
N/A
Forward P/E
-56.3
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
10.68
P/S Ratio
8.44
EV/Revenue
8.87
EV/EBITDA
-63.12
Market Cap
$2.34B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin -21.48%
Operating Margin -17.82%
Gross Margin 40.38%
ROE -27.82%
ROA -6.79%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +51.0%
Earnings Growth N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth N/A

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.93
Moderate
Current Ratio
3.34
Strong
Quick Ratio
3.08
Excellent
Cash/Share
$1.48

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-04-30
$N/A
2026-02-05
$-0.09
+50.8% surprise
2025-11-05
$0.06
+143.3% surprise
2025-08-05
$-0.17
+28.6% surprise

Healthcare Sector Comparison

Comparing ADPT against 146 companies in the Healthcare sector (11 bullish, 60 neutral, 75 bearish)
Return on Equity (ROE)
-27.82%
This Stock
vs
-56.86%
Sector Avg
-51.1% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
-21.48%
This Stock
vs
-20.8%
Sector Avg
+3.3% (Better)
Debt to Equity
0.93
This Stock
vs
2.68
Sector Avg
-65.1% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
51.0%
This Stock
vs
62.23%
Sector Avg
-18.0% (Slower)
Current Ratio
3.34
This Stock
vs
3.45
Sector Avg
-3.2% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Company AI Rating Market Cap P/E ROE Profit Margin Price
ADPT
Adaptive Biotechnologies...
BEARISH $2.34B - -27.8% -21.5% $15.2
AAPG
Ascentage Pharma Group Internat
BEARISH $2.33B - -159.6% -296.8% $24.93
ATEC
Alphatec Holdings, Inc.
BEARISH $2.32B - -540.4% -21.3% $15.62
BHC
Bausch Health Companies Inc.
BEARISH $2.19B 6.79 563.2% 3.6% $5.91
ADUS
Addus HomeCare Corporation
BULLISH $2.13B 24.83 8.6% 6.4% $115.48

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

Date Insider Position Transaction Shares Value
2026-02-04 PISKEL KYLE Chief Financial Officer Sale 2,145 $39,597
2026-02-04 PISKEL KYLE Chief Financial Officer Option Exercise 2,145 $26,040
2026-02-03 ROBINS HARLAN S. Officer Sale 42,788 $799,105
2026-02-02 ROBINS CHAD M Chief Executive Officer Sale 124,998 $2,304,963
2026-01-12 LO FRANCIS Officer Sale 79,590 $1,411,131
2026-01-12 LO FRANCIS Officer Option Exercise 79,590 $614,022
2026-01-12 PISKEL KYLE Chief Financial Officer Sale 4,290 $77,220
2026-01-12 PISKEL KYLE Chief Financial Officer Option Exercise 4,290 $52,081
2026-01-06 ROBINS HARLAN S. Officer Sale 10,000 $164,400
2026-01-05 ROBINS CHAD M Chief Executive Officer Sale 124,998 $1,948,719
2026-01-02 LO FRANCIS Officer Sale 3,125 $50,250
2026-01-02 LO FRANCIS Officer Option Exercise 3,125 $12,469
2025-12-22 LO FRANCIS Officer Sale 4,394 $76,895
2025-12-22 LO FRANCIS Officer Option Exercise 4,394 $31,530
2025-12-22 LO FRANCIS Officer Sale 4,394 $76,895
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
STRONG_BUY
7 analysts
JP Morgan
2026-02-06
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
BTIG
2026-02-06
Maintains
Buy Buy
Guggenheim
2026-01-26
Maintains
Buy Buy
Morgan Stanley
2025-11-11
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
JP Morgan
2025-11-06
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
BTIG
2025-11-06
Maintains
Buy Buy
BTIG
2025-10-22
Maintains
Buy Buy
Piper Sandler
2025-10-15
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
JP Morgan
2025-10-13
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
Guggenheim
2025-09-30
init
Buy

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning ADPT from our newsroom.

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