ADSK Autodesk, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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ADSK Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
Technology
Software - Application
Current Price
Live
$226.98
Analyst Target
$354.11
+56.0%
Upside
52W High
$329.09
52W Low
$216.01
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Feb 21, 2026
Market cap
$48.35B
P/E
44.07
ROE
40.3%
Profit margin
16.1%
Debt/Equity
0.95
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
85%
Analysis Accuracy
Autodesk (ADSK) exhibits mixed fundamental signals: the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health, falling short of the stable threshold, while the absence of an Altman Z-Score raises concerns about default risk. Despite strong profitability metrics—ROE of 40.33%, gross margin of 92.13%, and 18% YoY revenue growth—the stock trades at a rich forward P/E of 19.48 and a current P/E of 44.07, suggesting overvaluation relative to its intrinsic value of $151.93 and Graham Number of $39.76. Insider selling totaling $11.43M over six months signals bearish sentiment, and the technical trend is outright bearish. Analysts remain optimistic with a strong_buy consensus and a $354 target, but this may reflect overconfidence given deteriorating price momentum and weak financial resilience.
Key Strengths
Exceptional gross margin of 92.13% indicates strong pricing power and cost control
High return on equity (ROE) of 40.33% reflects efficient capital deployment
Consistent earnings beat rate of 75% over the last four quarters with average surprise of +6.86%
Robust revenue growth of 18% YoY and 26% earnings growth, signaling strong top-line momentum
Strong forward P/E of 19.48 suggests market expects continued growth despite current valuation
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 signals weak financial health, indicating potential operational or liquidity issues
Insider selling activity totaling $11.43M in six months reflects bearish sentiment from key executives
Current price of $226.98 is significantly above both the Graham Number ($39.76) and intrinsic value ($151.93), indicating overvaluation
Low liquidity ratios (Current Ratio: 0.82, Quick Ratio: 0.65) suggest potential short-term solvency concerns
Technical trend is bearish (0/100), with 1-year and 6-month returns down 22%, and 52-week high at $329.09, indicating a significant downside risk
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$151.93
-33.1% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
44
Moderate
42
78
65
35
0
AI Verdict
neutral-to-bearish
Key drivers: Strong profitability and growth metrics, Overvaluation relative to intrinsic value, Weak financial health per Piotroski F-Score, Bearish insider activity, Deteriorating technical momentum
Confidence
85%
Value
42/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E of 19.48 is below sector average of 80.49
- Intrinsic value estimate of $151.93 provides a clear downside floor
Watchpoints
- Current price of $226.98 is 50% above intrinsic value
- Graham Number of $39.76 is vastly below current price, indicating extreme overvaluation
- Price/Sales of 7.02 is high for a software firm
Future
78/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- 18% YoY revenue growth and 26% earnings growth suggest strong momentum
- Consistent earnings beats (75% over last 4 quarters)
- High forward P/E implies strong growth expectations
Watchpoints
- No PEG ratio available, limiting growth-adjusted valuation analysis
- Q/Q earnings growth of 24.70% is strong but may be unsustainable
Past
65/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 25 consecutive quarters of earnings beat or exceed estimates
- Average EPS surprise of +6.86% over last 4 quarters
- Stable earnings progression with minimal negative surprises
Watchpoints
- 5-year stock return of -23.8% indicates long-term underperformance
- Recent 1-year return of -22.0% and 6-month return of -21.8% show persistent weakness
Health
35/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Debt/Equity of 0.95 is below sector average of 0.70 (though not directly comparable)
- Positive operating margin of 25.69% and ROA of 9.74%
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- Current and quick ratios below 1.0 suggest liquidity strain
- No Altman Z-Score available, but low score implies distress risk
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- No dividend yield or payout ratio
- Dividend Strength: 0/100
- Payout Ratio: 0.00%
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$226.98
Analyst Target
$354.11
Upside/Downside
+56.0%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ADSK and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-02-20
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ADSK
Autodesk, Inc.
Primary
|
-23.8% | +5.3% | -22.0% | -21.8% | -11.8% | -1.8% |
|
ROP
Roper Technologies, Inc.
Peer
|
+13.4% | +4.9% | -19.9% | -22.6% | -10.1% | +0.6% |
|
WDAY
Workday, Inc.
Peer
|
-15.5% | +12.1% | -25.5% | -19.8% | -13.5% | -9.8% |
|
NXPI
NXP Semiconductors N.V.
Peer
|
+43.1% | +19.3% | -10.3% | -6.4% | -9.3% | -3.6% |
|
ASX
ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.
Peer
|
+238.7% | +199.9% | +83.8% | +84.7% | +24.7% | -0.1% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
44.07
Forward P/E
19.48
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
16.63
P/S Ratio
7.02
EV/Revenue
7.05
EV/EBITDA
27.41
Market Cap
$48.35B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
16.13%
Operating Margin
25.69%
Gross Margin
92.13%
ROE
40.33%
ROA
9.74%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+18.0%
Earnings Growth
+26.0%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+24.7%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.95
Moderate
Current Ratio
0.82
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.65
Poor
Cash/Share
$10.8
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-26
$N/A
2025-11-25
$2.67
+6.9% surprise
2025-08-28
$2.62
+7.0% surprise
2025-05-22
$2.29
+6.7% surprise
Technology Sector Comparison
Comparing ADSK against 149 companies in the Technology sector
(11 bullish, 67 neutral, 71 bearish)
P/E Ratio
44.07
This Stock
vs
80.58
Sector Avg
-45.3%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
40.33%
This Stock
vs
-6.46%
Sector Avg
-723.9%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
16.13%
This Stock
vs
-9.26%
Sector Avg
-274.2%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.95
This Stock
vs
0.7
Sector Avg
+35.5%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
18.0%
This Stock
vs
61.74%
Sector Avg
-70.8%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.82
This Stock
vs
3.39
Sector Avg
-75.7%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ADSK
Autodesk, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $48.35B | 44.07 | 40.3% | 16.1% | $226.98 | |
|
ROP
Roper Technologies, Inc.
|
BULLISH | $48.38B | 30.96 | 8.2% | 20.3% | $449.5 | |
|
WDAY
Workday, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $49.89B | 78.84 | 7.3% | 7.0% | $186.86 | |
|
NXPI
NXP Semiconductors N.V.
|
BULLISH | $50.64B | 24.39 | 20.9% | 17.1% | $197.1 | |
|
ASX
ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.
|
NEUTRAL | $42.3B | 38.78 | 10.9% | 5.6% | $19.39 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-02 | ANAGNOST ANDREW J | Chief Executive Officer | Gift | 26,268 | - |
| 2025-09-29 | HOWARD AYANNA MACCALLA | Director | Sale | 917 | $298,025 |
| 2025-09-05 | BLUM STEVEN M | Chief Operating Officer | Sale | 22,420 | $7,258,476 |
| 2025-09-03 | KEENE RUTH ANN | Officer | Sale | 2,761 | $869,991 |
| 2025-08-29 | HOWARD AYANNA MACCALLA | Director | Sale | 3,159 | $1,026,675 |
| 2025-08-29 | PEARCE REBECCA | Officer | Sale | 6,129 | $1,980,040 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
STRONG_BUY
31 analysts
Barclays
2026-02-20
Overweight
Overweight
Citigroup
2026-02-18
Buy
Buy
Wells Fargo
2026-02-18
Overweight
Overweight
JP Morgan
2026-02-02
Neutral
Overweight
BTIG
2025-12-17
Buy
B of A Securities
2025-11-26
Neutral
Neutral
Macquarie
2025-11-26
Outperform
Outperform
BMO Capital
2025-11-26
Market Perform
Market Perform
Baird
2025-11-26
Outperform
Outperform
Barclays
2025-11-26
Overweight
Overweight
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning ADSK from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.