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ALKS Alkermes plc - Fundamental Analysis

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ALKS Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ Healthcare Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Current Price Live
$27.76
Analyst Target
$43.65
+57.2% Upside
52W High
$36.32
52W Low
$25.17

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AI Analysis

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Confidence Score
85%
Analysis Accuracy
ALKS exhibits a weak Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating marginal financial health, and lacks an Altman Z-Score, raising concerns about default risk. Despite a strong Graham Number of $18.80 and intrinsic value estimate of $10.01, the current price of $27.76 trades at a significant premium, especially given deteriorating growth and profitability metrics. The company shows a sharp decline in revenue and earnings (YoY: -10.6% and -67.0%), with recent quarterly earnings missing expectations and negative Q/Q trends. Insider selling activity over the past six months further undermines confidence, despite strong historical earnings surprises. The market appears to be pricing in future recovery, but current fundamentals suggest caution.

Key Strengths

Strong gross margin of 86.69% indicates high product pricing power and cost control
Exceptionally low debt/equity ratio of 0.04 reflects conservative capital structure and strong financial stability
High current ratio (3.55) and quick ratio (1.70) signal robust short-term liquidity
Historically strong earnings surprise performance (average +49.14% over last 4 quarters)
Analyst consensus remains strongly positive with a 'strong_buy' rating and target price of $43.65

Key Risks

Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health, with only marginal stability
Significant year-over-year earnings and revenue decline (-67.0% and -10.6%) suggest deteriorating business momentum
Recent insider selling activity (4 transactions, $0.77M value) signals potential internal skepticism
Current price of $27.76 is substantially above both Graham Number ($18.80) and intrinsic value ($10.01), implying overvaluation
Lack of Altman Z-Score and absence of key financial data (cash, debt, FCF) limit full assessment of solvency risk
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$18.8
-32.3% below current price

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