ALRM Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
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ALRM Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
Technology
Software - Application
Current Price
Live
$46.59
Analyst Target
$58.0
+24.5%
Upside
52W High
$60.76
52W Low
$43.0
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Mar 14, 2026
Market cap
$2.32B
P/E
18.94
ROE
15.8%
Profit margin
13.1%
Debt/Equity
1.2
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
78%
Analysis Accuracy
ALRM's Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health, signaling potential instability despite moderate profitability and growth. The absence of an Altman Z-Score raises concern about default risk, particularly given a high debt/equity ratio of 1.20. While the company exhibits strong earnings growth (17.9% YoY) and consistent earnings beats (average surprise of 18.19% over last 4 quarters), its valuation at 18.94x P/E is elevated relative to peers and the broader sector. The Graham Number ($30.76) and intrinsic value estimate ($72.57) suggest a significant premium to conservative fair value, driven by growth expectations. Insider selling activity over the past six months further tempers optimism.
Key Strengths
Consistent earnings beat history with an average surprise of 18.19% over the last four quarters
Strong gross margin of 66.15% and operating margin of 13.63% indicate pricing power and operational efficiency
Robust earnings growth of 17.90% YoY and 14.50% Q/Q, outpacing revenue growth
High revenue growth of 8.00% YoY in a competitive software sector
Positive technical momentum in recent months (1M change: +0.3%) despite longer-term underperformance
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health and potential distress signals
Debt/Equity ratio of 1.20 is elevated, especially for a software company with high growth expectations
Insider selling of $2.87M in the last 6 months signals potential lack of confidence from leadership
Current price of $46.59 trades at a significant premium to Graham Number ($30.76), suggesting overvaluation
No Altman Z-Score available; absence of distress risk metric raises red flags for financial stability
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$68.2
+46.4% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
48
Moderate
55
70
75
40
0
AI Verdict
neutral
Key drivers: Strong earnings growth and consistency in beating estimates, High debt/equity ratio and low Piotroski F-Score, Premium valuation relative to Graham Number, Lack of Altman Z-Score and negative insider sentiment
Confidence
78%
Value
55/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Intrinsic value estimate of $72.57 suggests upside potential if growth is sustained
- Forward P/E of 15.49 is below current P/E, indicating improving valuation
Watchpoints
- Current price ($46.59) is 52% above Graham Number ($30.76)
- P/E of 18.94 is high relative to sector average (77.60) and peers like ASGN (17.48)
- No PEG ratio available, limiting growth-adjusted valuation insight
Future
70/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Earnings growth of 17.90% YoY and 14.50% Q/Q indicate strong momentum
- Revenue growth of 8.00% YoY is solid for a mature software firm
- Consistent earnings surprises (avg +18.19%) suggest strong execution
Watchpoints
- Most recent Q/Q EPS growth is -5.3%, indicating a potential slowdown
- Forward guidance not available; reliance on historical trends
Past
75/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 25 consecutive quarters of earnings beats, with 3 out of last 4 exceeding estimates
- Average earnings surprise of 18.19% over last 4 quarters
- Strong historical EPS progression with consistent improvement
Watchpoints
- 5-year stock performance down 47.8%, indicating long-term underperformance
- 1-year return of -19.7% and 6-month return of -16.3% reflect recent weakness
Health
40/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current ratio of 1.92 and quick ratio of 1.66 suggest adequate short-term liquidity
- Operating margin of 13.63% indicates solid core business profitability
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health and potential distress
- Debt/Equity ratio of 1.20 is high for a software company
- No Altman Z-Score available, which is a critical gap for assessing bankruptcy risk
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- No dividend paid; payout ratio is 0.00%
- Dividend yield and rate are not applicable
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$46.59
Analyst Target
$58.0
Upside/Downside
+24.5%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ALRM and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-03-13
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ALRM
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.
Primary
|
-47.8% | -5.0% | -19.7% | -16.3% | +0.3% | -6.7% |
|
BB
BlackBerry Limited
Peer
|
-78.8% | -10.5% | -8.4% | -2.3% | -4.3% | -1.6% |
|
AMBA
Ambarella, Inc.
Peer
|
-54.5% | -33.1% | +0.2% | -34.9% | -21.8% | -0.2% |
|
ASGN
ASGN Incorporated
Peer
|
-43.5% | -42.0% | -44.9% | -6.8% | +2.4% | +4.2% |
|
BELFB
Bel Fuse Inc.
Peer
|
+1127.9% | +434.7% | +143.5% | +64.1% | +11.6% | -1.8% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
18.94
Forward P/E
15.49
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
2.73
P/S Ratio
2.3
EV/Revenue
2.44
EV/EBITDA
15.53
Market Cap
$2.32B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
13.11%
Operating Margin
13.63%
Gross Margin
66.15%
ROE
15.84%
ROA
4.12%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+8.0%
Earnings Growth
+17.9%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+14.5%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
1.2
Moderate
Current Ratio
1.92
Good
Quick Ratio
1.66
Excellent
Cash/Share
$19.34
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-05-07
$N/A
2026-02-19
$0.72
+12.2% surprise
2025-11-06
$0.76
+24.3% surprise
2025-08-07
$0.6
+18.1% surprise
Technology Sector Comparison
Comparing ALRM against 149 companies in the Technology sector
(10 bullish, 67 neutral, 72 bearish)
P/E Ratio
18.94
This Stock
vs
92.07
Sector Avg
-79.4%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
15.84%
This Stock
vs
-8.13%
Sector Avg
-294.8%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
13.11%
This Stock
vs
-9.06%
Sector Avg
-244.7%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
1.2
This Stock
vs
0.76
Sector Avg
+56.5%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
8.0%
This Stock
vs
55.69%
Sector Avg
-85.6%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.92
This Stock
vs
3.32
Sector Avg
-42.2%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ALRM
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $2.32B | 18.94 | 15.8% | 13.1% | $46.59 | |
|
BB
BlackBerry Limited
|
BEARISH | $2.25B | 95.5 | 2.9% | 4.0% | $3.82 | |
|
AMBA
Ambarella, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $2.25B | - | -13.1% | -19.4% | $52.29 | |
|
ASGN
ASGN Incorporated
|
NEUTRAL | $2.24B | 17.48 | 7.2% | 3.3% | $51.04 | |
|
BELFB
Bel Fuse Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $2.49B | 40.52 | 16.9% | 10.0% | $196.5 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-16 | BEDELL JEFFREY ALLAN | Officer | Sale | 22,727 | $1,177,713 |
| 2025-12-16 | BEDELL JEFFREY ALLAN | Officer | Option Exercise | 22,727 | $341,360 |
| 2025-12-12 | BEDELL JEFFREY ALLAN | Officer | Sale | 2,273 | $119,355 |
| 2025-12-12 | EVANS STEPHEN C | Director | Sale | 1,154 | $60,320 |
| 2025-12-12 | BEDELL JEFFREY ALLAN | Officer | Option Exercise | 2,273 | $34,140 |
| 2025-11-25 | MCADAM TIMOTHY P | Director | Gift | 7,000 | - |
| 2025-11-20 | TRUNDLE STEPHEN S. | Chief Executive Officer | Purchase | 26,000 | $1,257,281 |
| 2025-11-13 | KERZNER DANIEL | Officer | Sale | 30,004 | $1,509,301 |
| 2025-11-13 | KERZNER DANIEL | Officer | Option Exercise | 10,000 | $150,200 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
NONE
6 analysts
Barclays
2026-02-20
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
JP Morgan
2026-02-18
Underweight
Underweight
Barclays
2025-11-07
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning ALRM from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.