ALRS Alerus Financial Corporation - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
Sign in to save
Save this symbol to a watchlist or track a position.
ALRS Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
Financial Services
Banks - Regional
Current Price
Live
$23.56
Analyst Target
$26.6
+12.9%
Upside
52W High
$26.32
52W Low
$15.78
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Mar 14, 2026
Market cap
$598.45M
P/E
34.65
ROE
3.3%
Profit margin
7.8%
Debt/Equity
N/A
Dividend yield
3.57%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
85%
Analysis Accuracy
ALRS exhibits weak financial health with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating marginal stability, and lacks an Altman Z-Score, raising unquantified distress risk. The stock trades at a high forward P/E of 8.54 but has a current P/E of 34.65, suggesting overvaluation relative to near-term earnings. Despite strong earnings surprises in recent quarters and a 93.2% YoY EPS growth, the company reports a negative operating margin of -481.44% and an 85.8% revenue decline, signaling severe operational distress. The dividend payout ratio of 122.06% is unsustainable, and technical trends are bearish, reinforcing caution. The Graham Number of $18.44 implies a defensive fair value below the current price of $23.56.
Key Strengths
Strong recent earnings surprise history with average +30.65% beat over last 4 quarters
Significant year-over-year EPS growth of 93.2% and +30.8% Q/Q growth
Positive analyst target price of $26.60, indicating upside potential
Historical earnings resilience with multiple quarters beating estimates
Relatively low market cap ($0.60B) may offer opportunity for turnaround
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health and marginal stability
Negative operating margin (-481.44%) and zero gross margin signal severe operational inefficiency
85.8% YoY revenue decline suggests fundamental business deterioration
Dividend payout ratio of 122.06% is unsustainable and indicates dividend risk
Lack of Altman Z-Score and missing financial health ratios (Debt/Equity, Current Ratio) increase uncertainty
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$18.44
-21.7% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
45
Moderate
55
68
50
30
20
AI Verdict
Cautionary
Key drivers: High earnings growth and surprise history, Severe operational and revenue decline, Unsustainable dividend payout, Weak Piotroski F-Score, Lack of financial health metrics
Confidence
85%
Value
55/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E of 8.54 appears attractive relative to current P/E of 34.65
- Graham Number of $18.44 provides a defensive floor
Watchpoints
- Current price of $23.56 exceeds Graham Number by 28%
- High current P/E suggests overvaluation unless growth is sustained
- No PEG ratio available to assess growth-adjusted valuation
Future
68/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- 93.2% YoY EPS growth and +30.8% Q/Q EPS growth indicate strong momentum
- Recent earnings surprises suggest potential for continued outperformance
Watchpoints
- 85.8% YoY revenue decline raises concerns about business model sustainability
- Negative operating margin suggests profitability is not scalable
- No forward revenue or earnings guidance available
Past
50/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Consistent history of beating earnings estimates over 25 quarters
- High average earnings surprise of 30.65% in last 4 quarters
Watchpoints
- Significant earnings misses in 2024 (e.g., -29.9% surprise)
- Declining revenue trend over multiple quarters
- Historical ROE and ROA are low (3.29% and 0.33%)
Health
30/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates some financial discipline
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score below 4 suggests weak financial health
- No Altman Z-Score available, raising bankruptcy risk concerns
- Negative operating margin and zero gross margin indicate operational distress
- Missing key financial ratios (Debt/Equity, Current Ratio, Cash, Debt)
Dividend
20/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 3.57% is attractive for income investors
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 122.06% is unsustainable and indicates dividend risk
- Dividend is funded by debt or capital depletion
- No history of dividend growth or stability
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$23.56
Analyst Target
$26.6
Upside/Downside
+12.9%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ALRS and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-03-13
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ALRS
Alerus Financial Corporation
Primary
|
-13.5% | +59.7% | +34.4% | +5.7% | -5.8% | -1.3% |
|
BCAL
California BanCorp
Peer
|
+32.1% | +12.0% | +24.1% | +15.2% | -3.4% | -0.9% |
|
BUI
BlackRock Utilities, Infrastructure & Power Opportunities Trust
Peer
|
+47.1% | +52.3% | +25.0% | +8.1% | +4.1% | +0.8% |
|
BIT
BlackRock Multi-Sector Income Trust
Peer
|
+22.9% | +18.3% | -0.7% | -4.7% | +1.2% | +0.1% |
|
AMSF
AMERISAFE, Inc.
Peer
|
-24.1% | -19.1% | -31.7% | -23.1% | -14.5% | -4.4% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
34.65
Forward P/E
8.54
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.06
P/S Ratio
2.67
EV/Revenue
4.29
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$598.45M
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
7.79%
Operating Margin
-481.44%
Gross Margin
N/A
ROE
3.29%
ROA
0.33%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-85.8%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
N/A
Current Ratio
N/A
Quick Ratio
N/A
Cash/Share
$2.11
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-05-05
$N/A
2026-01-28
$0.85
+49.6% surprise
2025-10-30
$0.65
+10.9% surprise
2025-07-28
$0.72
+31.4% surprise
Financial Services Sector Comparison
Comparing ALRS against 208 companies in the Financial Services sector
(5 bullish, 111 neutral, 92 bearish)
P/E Ratio
34.65
This Stock
vs
30.37
Sector Avg
+14.1%
(Premium)
Return on Equity (ROE)
3.29%
This Stock
vs
-7.62%
Sector Avg
-143.2%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
7.79%
This Stock
vs
82.75%
Sector Avg
-90.6%
(Weaker)
Revenue Growth
-85.8%
This Stock
vs
28.35%
Sector Avg
-402.7%
(Slower)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ALRS
Alerus Financial Corporation
|
BEARISH | $598.45M | 34.65 | 3.3% | 7.8% | $23.56 | |
|
BCAL
California BanCorp
|
NEUTRAL | $598.0M | 8.72 | 11.9% | 33.8% | $18.39 | |
|
BUI
BlackRock Utilities,...
|
BEARISH | $603.53M | 6.22 | -% | -% | $26.57 | |
|
BIT
BlackRock Multi-Sector Income Trust
|
BEARISH | $578.22M | 9.34 | -% | -% | $13.17 | |
|
AMSF
AMERISAFE, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $621.67M | 13.3 | 18.5% | 14.9% | $32.85 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | LORENSON KATIE A. | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 9,363 | - |
| 2026-02-26 | TAYLOR KARIN M | Chief Operating Officer | Stock Award | 3,574 | - |
| 2026-02-26 | VILLALON ALAN A. | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 3,217 | - |
| 2026-02-26 | COLLINS JIM | Officer | Stock Award | 4,239 | - |
| 2026-02-26 | KENEY MISSY | Officer | Stock Award | 2,349 | - |
| 2026-02-20 | LORENSON KATIE A. | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 5,572 | - |
| 2026-02-20 | LORENSON KATIE A. | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 5,572 | - |
| 2026-02-20 | TAYLOR KARIN M | Chief Operating Officer | Stock Award | 2,128 | - |
| 2026-02-20 | VILLALON ALAN A. | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 1,915 | - |
| 2026-02-20 | COLLINS JIM | Officer | Stock Award | 2,523 | - |
| 2026-02-20 | KENEY MISSY | Officer | Stock Award | 1,398 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
NONE
5 analysts
DA Davidson
2026-01-30
Neutral
Neutral
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2026-01-30
Market Perform
Market Perform
Hovde Group
2026-01-07
Outperform
Market Perform
Raymond James
2026-01-05
Outperform
Strong Buy
Piper Sandler
2025-11-04
Neutral
Neutral
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2025-11-03
Market Perform
Market Perform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning ALRS from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.