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AMPH

BEARISH
$18.18 Live
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $29.0 (+59.5%)
$17.03 52W Range $31.26

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AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
AMPH exhibits strong deterministic health with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, indicating solid operational efficiency and financial stability, though the absence of an Altman Z-Score raises concern about default risk. The stock trades at a discount to its Graham Number ($28.09) and intrinsic value ($14.21), suggesting undervaluation on a defensive basis. However, this is overshadowed by deteriorating fundamentals: negative revenue and earnings growth (YoY -1.8% and -31.0%), declining quarterly earnings, and a significant 36.4% drop in price over the past month. Insider selling activity further undermines confidence, with $0.95M in sales over six months despite no buy activity.

Key Strengths

Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicates strong financial health and operational efficiency
Graham Number of $28.09 suggests defensive undervaluation relative to intrinsic safety margin
High gross margin (49.46%) and operating margin (19.45%) reflect strong pricing power and cost control
Low debt-to-equity ratio (0.83) and high current ratio (4.02) signal strong liquidity and low leverage risk
Analyst consensus is 'buy' with a target price of $29.00, implying upside potential

Key Risks

Negative year-over-year earnings growth (-31.0%) and revenue decline (-1.8%) indicate deteriorating business momentum
Recent insider selling of $0.95M over six months signals potential lack of confidence from management
Stock has declined 36.4% in one month and 51.1% over three years, reflecting prolonged underperformance
No dividend and zero payout ratio eliminate income appeal and signal reinvestment focus without clear growth
Technical trend is bearish (0/100), confirming negative momentum and weak price action
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$14.21
-21.8% below current price

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