APPF
BEARISH
$172.5
Live
AppFolio, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $270.83
(+57.0%)
$161.13
52W Range
$326.04
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Mar 14, 2026
Market cap
$6.21B
P/E
44.46
ROE
26.5%
Profit margin
14.8%
Debt/Equity
0.07
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
AppFolio, Inc. exhibits strong deterministic health with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, indicating solid operational efficiency and financial stability, though the absence of an Altman Z-Score prevents definitive assessment of bankruptcy risk. The company trades at a premium valuation with a current price of $172.50, significantly above both the Graham Number ($36.28) and Intrinsic Value ($27.16), reflecting high growth expectations. Despite robust gross margins (63.68%) and strong profitability (ROE 26.54%), the recent earnings collapse—down 60.6% YoY and -61.1% Q/Q—undermines confidence. Insider selling totaling $2.33M over six months and a bearish technical trend further signal caution, despite a resilient revenue growth rate of 21.9% YoY.
Key Strengths
Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicates strong financial health and operational efficiency
High gross margin (63.68%) and solid operating margin (17.56%) reflect pricing power and cost control
Low debt/equity (0.07) and high current/quick ratios (3.31, 2.95) signal strong liquidity and minimal leverage risk
Consistent revenue growth of 21.9% YoY demonstrates market traction and scalable business model
Positive earnings surprises in 2 of the last 4 quarters (avg +12.47%) suggest some earnings resilience
Key Risks
Earnings declined sharply by 60.6% YoY and -61.1% Q/Q, indicating potential business model stress or one-time charges
Insider selling of $2.33M in last 6 months (4 transactions) with no buys, signaling potential internal skepticism
Current price ($172.50) is vastly above both Graham Number ($36.28) and Intrinsic Value ($27.16), implying extreme valuation premium
No dividend and zero payout ratio reflect lack of shareholder return, typical of growth-stage firms but limiting income appeal
Technical trend is bearish (0/100), and 6-month price drop of 37.5% suggests sustained downward pressure
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$27.16
-84.3% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
44
Moderate
30
45
65
80
0
AI Verdict
neutral
Key drivers: Strong Piotroski F-Score (7/9) and low leverage support financial health, Severe earnings contraction and insider selling undermine confidence, Extreme valuation premium relative to intrinsic value, Revenue growth remains positive but earnings quality deteriorated
Confidence
80%
Value
30/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Low P/E (44.46) relative to sector average (75.96) suggests some valuation advantage
- High PEG (if calculated) would imply growth justifies premium, but PEG is unavailable
Watchpoints
- Current price ($172.50) is 5.2x the Graham Number ($36.28) and 6.3x the Intrinsic Value ($27.16)
- Price/Sales (6.53) is high, especially for a company with declining earnings
Future
45/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- 21.9% YoY revenue growth indicates continued market expansion
- Forward P/E of 21.68 suggests earnings may recover in next 12 months
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth is -60.6% YoY and -61.1% Q/Q, signaling severe near-term deterioration
- Recent quarterly EPS growth is -16.0% Q/Q, indicating ongoing pressure
Past
65/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 reflects consistent profitability and efficient operations
- Historical earnings surprises have been positive in 16 of 25 quarters (64%)
Watchpoints
- Earnings have been volatile, with multiple quarters of large negative surprises (e.g., -2918% in 2022 Q1)
- 2020 Q4 saw a 1418% surprise, but this was likely due to one-time events
Health
80/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicates strong financial health and operational discipline
- Extremely low debt/equity (0.07) and high liquidity ratios (3.31, 2.95) reduce distress risk
Watchpoints
- No Altman Z-Score available, so bankruptcy risk cannot be quantified
- High leverage in peers (avg 0.76) makes APPF’s 0.07 look favorable, but not a full substitute
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- No dividend yield, payout ratio of 0.00%, and no history of distributions
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$172.5
Analyst Target
$270.83
Upside/Downside
+57.0%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for APPF and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-03-13
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
APPF
AppFolio, Inc.
Primary
|
+21.3% | +44.8% | -16.5% | -37.5% | -3.5% | -9.8% |
|
NICE
NICE Ltd.
Peer
|
-57.4% | -55.5% | -33.7% | -23.0% | -14.1% | -9.5% |
|
EPAM
EPAM Systems, Inc.
Peer
|
-74.1% | -56.6% | -24.7% | -25.4% | -10.7% | -9.4% |
|
TTAN
ServiceTitan, Inc.
Peer
|
-34.4% | -34.4% | -43.7% | -29.1% | -2.2% | +15.6% |
|
ARW
Arrow Electronics, Inc.
Peer
|
+11.2% | +0.7% | -2.2% | -8.7% | +3.7% | -1.3% |
APP
AppFolio, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+21.3%
3Y
+44.8%
1Y
-16.5%
6M
-37.5%
1M
-3.5%
1W
-9.8%
NIC
NICE Ltd.
Peer
5Y
-57.4%
3Y
-55.5%
1Y
-33.7%
6M
-23.0%
1M
-14.1%
1W
-9.5%
EPA
EPAM Systems, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-74.1%
3Y
-56.6%
1Y
-24.7%
6M
-25.4%
1M
-10.7%
1W
-9.4%
TTA
ServiceTitan, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-34.4%
3Y
-34.4%
1Y
-43.7%
6M
-29.1%
1M
-2.2%
1W
+15.6%
ARW
Arrow Electronics, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+11.2%
3Y
+0.7%
1Y
-2.2%
6M
-8.7%
1M
+3.7%
1W
-1.3%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
44.46
Forward P/E
21.68
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
11.44
P/S Ratio
6.53
EV/Revenue
6.3
EV/EBITDA
35.82
Market Cap
$6.21B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
14.82%
Operating Margin
17.56%
Gross Margin
63.68%
ROE
26.54%
ROA
14.53%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+21.9%
Earnings Growth
-60.6%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-61.1%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.07
Low debt
Current Ratio
3.31
Strong
Quick Ratio
2.95
Excellent
Cash/Share
$6.98
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-04-30
$N/A
2026-01-29
$1.1
+38.9% surprise
2025-10-30
$1.31
-9.8% surprise
2025-07-31
$1.39
+8.3% surprise
Technology Sector Comparison
Comparing APPF against 565 companies in the Technology sector
(45 bullish, 197 neutral, 323 bearish)
P/E Ratio
44.46
This Stock
vs
82.88
Sector Avg
-46.4%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
26.54%
This Stock
vs
-33.47%
Sector Avg
-179.3%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
14.82%
This Stock
vs
-11.75%
Sector Avg
-226.2%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.07
This Stock
vs
0.74
Sector Avg
-90.5%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
21.9%
This Stock
vs
4383.21%
Sector Avg
-99.5%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
3.31
This Stock
vs
3.59
Sector Avg
-7.8%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
APPF
AppFolio, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $6.21B | 44.46 | 26.5% | 14.8% | $172.5 | |
|
NICE
NICE Ltd.
|
BULLISH | $6.15B | 10.64 | 16.4% | 20.8% | $101.19 | Compare |
|
EPAM
EPAM Systems, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $6.28B | 17.71 | 10.3% | 6.9% | $118.98 | Compare |
|
TTAN
ServiceTitan, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $6.31B | - | -10.7% | -16.6% | $66.28 | Compare |
|
ARW
Arrow Electronics, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $6.01B | 13.08 | 7.6% | 1.6% | $116.66 | Compare |
APPF
AppFolio, Inc.
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$6.2B
P/E
44.5
ROE
26.5%
Price
$172.5
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | KERR JANET E | Director | Gift | 798 | - |
| 2026-02-20 | RIGLER DON | Officer | Stock Award | 1,980 | - |
| 2026-02-17 | TRIGG WILLIAM SHANE | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 6,963 | $1,181,858 |
| 2026-02-12 | CASEY SAORI | Director | Stock Award | 1,248 | - |
| 2026-02-10 | PICKERING EVAN | General Counsel | Stock Award | 2,648 | $498,618 |
| 2026-02-10 | TRIGG WILLIAM SHANE | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 14,121 | $2,658,984 |
| 2026-02-10 | EATON TIMOTHY MATHIAS | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 7,415 | $1,396,244 |
| 2026-02-10 | BARAT ELIZABETH ERIN | Officer | Stock Award | 7,062 | $1,329,775 |
| 2026-02-02 | DUCA MAURICE J | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Stock Award | 7,022 | - |
| 2026-01-27 | PICKERING EVAN | General Counsel | Stock Award | 2,410 | - |
| 2026-01-27 | EATON TIMOTHY MATHIAS | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 5,354 | - |
| 2026-01-27 | BARAT ELIZABETH ERIN | Officer | Stock Award | 4,462 | - |
| 2025-11-24 | EATON TIMOTHY MATHIAS | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 517 | $118,052 |
| 2025-11-17 | TRIGG WILLIAM SHANE | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 3,947 | $949,052 |
| 2025-11-17 | SCHAUSER KLAUS PH.D. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Stock Award | 505,000 | - |
KERR JANET E
Director
2026-03-10
798 shares
RIGLER DON
Officer
2026-02-20
1,980 shares
TRIGG WILLIAM SHANE
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-17
6,963 shares
·
$1,181,858
CASEY SAORI
Director
2026-02-12
1,248 shares
PICKERING EVAN
General Counsel
2026-02-10
2,648 shares
·
$498,618
TRIGG WILLIAM SHANE
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-10
14,121 shares
·
$2,658,984
EATON TIMOTHY MATHIAS
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-10
7,415 shares
·
$1,396,244
BARAT ELIZABETH ERIN
Officer
2026-02-10
7,062 shares
·
$1,329,775
DUCA MAURICE J
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
2026-02-02
7,022 shares
PICKERING EVAN
General Counsel
2026-01-27
2,410 shares
EATON TIMOTHY MATHIAS
Chief Financial Officer
2026-01-27
5,354 shares
BARAT ELIZABETH ERIN
Officer
2026-01-27
4,462 shares
EATON TIMOTHY MATHIAS
Chief Financial Officer
2025-11-24
517 shares
·
$118,052
TRIGG WILLIAM SHANE
Chief Executive Officer
2025-11-17
3,947 shares
·
$949,052
SCHAUSER KLAUS PH.D.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
2025-11-17
505,000 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
NONE
6 analysts
JP Morgan
2026-01-30
Overweight
Overweight
DA Davidson
2026-01-30
Buy
Buy
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2026-01-30
Outperform
Outperform
Piper Sandler
2026-01-30
Overweight
Overweight
UBS
2025-12-12
Buy
DA Davidson
2025-11-19
Buy
Buy
DA Davidson
2025-10-31
Buy
Buy
Keybanc
2025-10-31
Overweight
Overweight
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2025-10-24
Market Perform
Outperform
Keybanc
2025-10-17
Sector Weight
Overweight
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning APPF from our newsroom.
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