APPF AppFolio, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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APPF Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
Technology
Software - Application
Current Price
Live
$172.5
Analyst Target
$270.83
+57.0%
Upside
52W High
$326.04
52W Low
$161.13
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
85%
Analysis Accuracy
AppFolio, Inc. exhibits strong deterministic health with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, indicating solid operational efficiency and financial stability, though the absence of an Altman Z-Score prevents definitive assessment of bankruptcy risk. The company trades at a premium valuation with a current price of $172.50, significantly above both the Graham Number ($36.28) and Intrinsic Value ($27.16), reflecting high growth expectations. Despite robust gross margins (63.68%) and strong profitability (ROE 26.54%), the recent earnings collapse—down 60.6% YoY and -61.1% Q/Q—undermines confidence. Insider selling totaling $2.33M over six months and a bearish technical trend further signal caution, despite a resilient revenue growth rate of 21.9% YoY.
Key Strengths
Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicates strong financial health and operational efficiency
High gross margin (63.68%) and solid operating margin (17.56%) reflect pricing power and cost control
Low debt/equity (0.07) and high current/quick ratios (3.31, 2.95) signal strong liquidity and minimal leverage risk
Consistent revenue growth of 21.9% YoY demonstrates market traction and scalable business model
Positive earnings surprises in 2 of the last 4 quarters (avg +12.47%) suggest some earnings resilience
Key Risks
Earnings declined sharply by 60.6% YoY and -61.1% Q/Q, indicating potential business model stress or one-time charges
Insider selling of $2.33M in last 6 months (4 transactions) with no buys, signaling potential internal skepticism
Current price ($172.50) is vastly above both Graham Number ($36.28) and Intrinsic Value ($27.16), implying extreme valuation premium
No dividend and zero payout ratio reflect lack of shareholder return, typical of growth-stage firms but limiting income appeal
Technical trend is bearish (0/100), and 6-month price drop of 37.5% suggests sustained downward pressure
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$27.16
-84.3% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional AI analysis across 5 key categories
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
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Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Valuation Metrics
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Profitability, Growth & Financial Health
Detailed profit margins, ROE, debt ratios, and liquidity metrics
Sector Comparison & Peer Analysis
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Insider Trading & Analyst Ratings
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Past News Coverage
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