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ASO

NEUTRAL
$49.9 Live
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $60.56 (+21.4%)
$33.34 52W Range $62.45

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Mar 18, 2026
Market cap
$3.33B
P/E
9.17
ROE
18.3%
Profit margin
6.3%
Debt/Equity
0.87
Dividend yield
1.2%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
78%
ASO's Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates a borderline stable financial health, falling short of strong fundamentals. The absence of an Altman Z-Score raises concern about default risk, particularly given a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.87 and a low quick ratio of 0.25. While the stock trades at a compelling 9.17x P/E and 0.55x Price/Sales, well below sector averages, its intrinsic value of $153.14 suggests significant upside potential if growth sustains. However, recent earnings misses and a bearish insider sentiment undermine confidence in near-term momentum.

Key Strengths

Attractive valuation with P/E of 9.17 and Price/Sales of 0.55, significantly below sector average
Strong ROE of 18.34% and gross margin of 34.42% indicate efficient capital use and pricing power
Intrinsic value estimate of $153.14 suggests substantial upside from current price of $49.90
Positive earnings growth of 14.10% YoY and forward P/E of 7.04 support growth-oriented valuation
Graham Number of $62.77 provides a defensive floor, though current price is below it

Key Risks

Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 signals weak financial health, indicating potential operational inefficiencies
Low quick ratio of 0.25 suggests poor short-term liquidity and reliance on inventory to meet obligations
Bearish insider sentiment with $1.14M in sales over 6 months, no buys, raising governance concerns
Recent quarterly earnings surprises are negative on average (-3.63%), with multiple misses in 2025
No available Altman Z-Score leaves default risk unquantified, increasing uncertainty despite moderate leverage
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$153.14
+206.9% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
53
Moderate
Value
85
Future
55
Past
50
Health
45
Dividend
30
AI Verdict
neutral
Key drivers: Attractive valuation and strong ROE, Weak Piotroski score and low liquidity, Bearish insider activity, Mixed earnings performance, High intrinsic value relative to current price
Confidence
78%
Value
85/100

Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number

Positives
  • P/E of 9.17 is well below sector average of 42.78
  • Price/Sales of 0.55 is extremely low, indicating undervaluation
  • Graham Number of $62.77 is above current price, suggesting defensive margin of safety
  • Intrinsic value of $153.14 implies 207% upside from current price
Watchpoints
  • No PEG ratio available, limiting growth-adjusted valuation insight
  • Forward P/E of 7.04 is low, but may reflect earnings contraction expectations
Future
55/100

Ref Growth rates

Positives
  • 14.10% YoY earnings growth and 3.00% revenue growth suggest modest expansion
  • Forward P/E of 7.04 implies market expects continued profitability
  • Recent Q/Q EPS growth of 8.80% shows some momentum
Watchpoints
  • Most recent Q/Q EPS growth is -45.9%, indicating sharp contraction
  • Average earnings surprise over last 4 quarters is -3.63%, signaling underperformance
  • No clear guidance on future growth trajectory
Past
50/100

Ref Historical trends

Positives
  • Consistent profitability with 6.27% net margin and 18.34% ROE
  • Historical earnings beats in 2021–2022 show strong past performance
  • 52-week high of $62.45 indicates prior upside potential
Watchpoints
  • Recent earnings misses in 2025 (e.g., -9.1%, -14.7%) suggest deteriorating execution
  • 2024-12-10 miss of -22.9% was significant and unexplained
  • 21 quarters of data show volatility and inconsistency in earnings delivery
Health
45/100

Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score

Positives
  • Debt/Equity of 0.87 is moderate, below sector average of 1.65
  • Current ratio of 1.71 is acceptable for retail
  • No Altman Z-Score available, but no immediate distress signals
Watchpoints
  • Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 is weak, indicating financial instability
  • Quick ratio of 0.25 is dangerously low, suggesting liquidity risk
  • No available cash or debt figures limit full health assessment
Dividend
30/100

Ref Yield, Payout

Positives
  • Dividend yield of 1.20% is modest but stable
  • Payout ratio of 9.19% is extremely conservative, indicating safety
Watchpoints
  • Dividend strength score of 25/100 reflects low yield and lack of history
  • No 5-year average yield or ex-dividend date available
  • Low payout ratio suggests no growth or reinvestment focus

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$49.9
Analyst Target
$60.56
Upside/Downside
+21.4%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ASO and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-03-17
ASO
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+105.3%
3Y
-19.2%
1Y
+8.0%
6M
+7.9%
1M
-14.8%
1W
-16.8%
CAR
CarGurus, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+41.0%
3Y
+102.4%
1Y
+36.8%
6M
-0.7%
1M
+4.1%
1W
+3.5%
PAT
Patrick Industries, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+91.0%
3Y
+135.7%
1Y
+32.0%
6M
+4.8%
1M
-10.1%
1W
-13.2%
GEF
Greif, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+73.7%
3Y
+21.4%
1Y
+50.2%
6M
+37.2%
1M
-1.0%
1W
-6.2%
LCI
Lucid Group, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-96.0%
3Y
-88.2%
1Y
-60.6%
6M
-59.9%
1M
-5.0%
1W
-8.0%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
9.17
Forward P/E
7.04
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.55
P/S Ratio
0.55
EV/Revenue
0.82
EV/EBITDA
8.01
Market Cap
$3.33B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 6.27%
Operating Margin 7.26%
Gross Margin 34.42%
ROE 18.34%
ROA 5.83%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +3.0%
Earnings Growth +14.1%
Q/Q Revenue Growth N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth +8.8%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.87
Moderate
Current Ratio
1.71
Good
Quick Ratio
0.25
Poor
Cash/Share
$4.34

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue
$1.4B
Gross Margin
35.7%
Op. Margin
7.3%
Net Margin
5.2%
Total Assets
$5.4B
Liabilities
$3.3B
Equity
$2.1B
Debt/Equity
1.52x
Operating CF
$0.0B
CapEx
$-0.1B
Free Cash Flow
$-0.0B
FCF Yield
-28%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2025-12-09
$1.05
+1.7% surprise
2025-09-02
$1.94
-9.1% surprise
2025-06-10
$0.76
-14.7% surprise
2025-03-20
$1.96
+7.6% surprise

Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison

Comparing ASO against 386 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector (23 bullish, 133 neutral, 230 bearish)
P/E Ratio
9.17
This Stock
vs
33.98
Sector Avg
-73.0% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
18.34%
This Stock
vs
-43.92%
Sector Avg
-141.8% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
6.27%
This Stock
vs
-5.4%
Sector Avg
-216.1% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.87
This Stock
vs
1.51
Sector Avg
-42.4% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
3.0%
This Stock
vs
28.42%
Sector Avg
-89.4% (Slower)
Current Ratio
1.71
This Stock
vs
2.46
Sector Avg
-30.5% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

HICKS KENNETH C
Director
Stock Award
2026-03-04
4,047 shares
LAWRENCE STEVEN PAUL
Chief Executive Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-04
540 shares
JOHNSON SAMUEL J
President
Stock Award
2026-03-04
540 shares
MCCABE MATTHEW M.
Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-04
135 shares
FORD EARL CARLTON IV
Chief Financial Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-04
135 shares
HICKS KENNETH C
Director
Stock Award
2026-01-30
1,245 shares
LAWRENCE STEVEN PAUL
Chief Executive Officer
Stock Award
2026-01-30
1,991 shares
JOHNSON SAMUEL J
President
Stock Award
2026-01-30
1,991 shares
MCCABE MATTHEW M.
Officer
Stock Award
2026-01-30
499 shares
FORD EARL CARLTON IV
Chief Financial Officer
Stock Award
2026-01-30
499 shares
HICKS KENNETH C
Director
Stock Award
2025-12-30
1,244 shares
MARLEY BRIAN T
Director
Sell
2025-12-15
20,571 shares · $1,136,688
JOHNSON SAMUEL J
President
Stock Award
2025-12-05
1,526 shares
HICKS KENNETH C
Director
Stock Award
2025-11-28
1,245 shares
HICKS KENNETH C
Director
Stock Award
2025-10-30
1,245 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
18 analysts
Telsey Advisory Group
2026-03-17
Maintains
Outperform Outperform
Telsey Advisory Group
2026-03-11
Maintains
Outperform Outperform
UBS
2026-03-10
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Evercore ISI Group
2026-02-24
Maintains
In-Line In-Line
Morgan Stanley
2026-01-15
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
Truist Securities
2025-12-10
Maintains
Hold Hold
UBS
2025-12-10
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Barclays
2025-12-10
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
Telsey Advisory Group
2025-12-10
Maintains
Outperform Outperform
B of A Securities
2025-12-10
Maintains
Neutral Neutral

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning ASO from our newsroom.

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