ASO Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
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ASO Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
Consumer Cyclical
Specialty Retail
Current Price
Live
$60.13
Analyst Target
$60.22
+0.2%
Upside
52W High
$62.45
52W Low
$33.34
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Feb 28, 2026
Market cap
$4.01B
P/E
11.05
ROE
18.3%
Profit margin
6.3%
Debt/Equity
0.87
Dividend yield
0.86%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
78%
Analysis Accuracy
ASO's Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health, signaling potential operational inefficiencies despite stable profitability metrics. The absence of an Altman Z-Score raises concern about default risk, though current liquidity and moderate leverage (Debt/Equity: 0.87) provide some buffer. The stock trades near its Graham Number ($62.77) but significantly below its intrinsic value estimate ($153.14), suggesting undervaluation on a growth basis—yet this is tempered by inconsistent earnings execution and a bearish insider sentiment. Analysts maintain a 'buy' consensus, but recent earnings misses and declining Q/Q EPS growth undermine conviction.
Key Strengths
Attractive valuation relative to intrinsic value ($60.13 vs $153.14), indicating potential upside if growth materializes
Strong ROE (18.34%) and gross margin (34.42%) reflect efficient capital use and pricing power
Low P/E (11.05) and P/S (0.67) compared to sector average (P/E: 43.48), suggesting value appeal
Positive earnings growth (14.10% YoY) and stable operating margin (7.26%) support profitability resilience
Conservative debt levels (Debt/Equity: 0.87) and current ratio (1.71) indicate manageable financial leverage
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 signals weak financial health, with red flags in cash flow, asset turnover, and profitability consistency
Bearish insider sentiment (1 sell transaction, $1.14M value) contradicts bullish market signals
Recent earnings surprises are negative (avg -7.37% over last 4 quarters), with most recent Q/Q EPS down 45.9%
Low quick ratio (0.25) suggests poor short-term liquidity and inventory overhang risk
No visible free cash flow or operating cash flow data, raising concerns about capital generation and reinvestment quality
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$153.14
+154.7% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
52
Moderate
85
55
50
40
30
AI Verdict
neutral
Key drivers: Strong intrinsic value and low P/E suggest undervaluation, Weak Piotroski F-Score and bearish insider activity limit upside, Mixed earnings execution and declining Q/Q EPS growth
Confidence
78%
Value
85/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Current price ($60.13) is below Graham Number ($62.77) and significantly below intrinsic value ($153.14)
- P/E (11.05) and P/S (0.67) are well below sector average (43.48 and 0.83%)
- Price/Book (1.87) is reasonable for a retail firm
Watchpoints
- No PEG ratio available, limiting growth-adjusted valuation clarity
- Intrinsic value is highly sensitive to growth assumptions, which are currently inconsistent
Future
55/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- 14.10% YoY earnings growth and 3.00% revenue growth suggest modest expansion
- Forward P/E of 9.22 implies market expects continued earnings improvement
Watchpoints
- Q/Q earnings growth is negative (-45.9%), indicating near-term deterioration
- Recent earnings misses and negative surprises (avg -7.37%) suggest execution risk
- No visible FCF or OCF data undermines confidence in sustainable growth
Past
50/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Historical earnings beat rate of 12/22 quarters (54.5%) shows some consistency
- Strong past EPS growth (e.g., +58.1% in 2021) indicates cyclical upside potential
Watchpoints
- Recent streak of misses (4 of last 4 quarters), including -22.9% and -14.7% surprises
- Earnings volatility with large swings (e.g., +128.6% to -20.9% in adjacent quarters)
- Declining Q/Q EPS growth (-45.9%) signals weakening momentum
Health
40/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Debt/Equity (0.87) is below sector average (1.65), indicating lower leverage risk
- Current ratio (1.71) is above 1.0, suggesting short-term solvency
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 is in the 'weak' range, indicating financial instability
- Quick ratio of 0.25 is extremely low, signaling poor liquidity and high inventory risk
- No Altman Z-Score available, but the low F-Score raises distress risk concerns
Dividend
30/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Low payout ratio (9.19%) provides room for future dividend increases
- Dividend yield (0.86%) is stable and sustainable
Watchpoints
- Dividend strength score of 25/100 indicates weak overall dividend quality
- No 5-year yield history or ex-dividend date, suggesting low investor focus
- Low yield and minimal payout suggest dividend is not a key value driver
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$60.13
Analyst Target
$60.22
Upside/Downside
+0.2%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ASO and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-02-27
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ASO
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
Primary
|
+157.1% | +4.2% | +21.7% | +12.9% | +9.1% | +2.3% |
|
AEO
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.
Peer
|
+16.4% | +68.6% | +44.5% | +108.3% | -9.0% | -5.1% |
|
ALH
Alliance Laundry Holdings Inc.
Peer
|
-12.7% | -12.7% | -12.7% | -12.7% | +0.5% | -2.9% |
|
ANF
Abercrombie & Fitch Co.
Peer
|
+294.4% | +242.8% | -22.4% | +4.3% | -24.0% | -7.5% |
|
BBWI
Bath & Body Works, Inc.
Peer
|
-30.8% | -47.1% | -38.5% | -28.3% | +12.6% | -4.6% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
11.05
Forward P/E
9.22
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.87
P/S Ratio
0.67
EV/Revenue
0.93
EV/EBITDA
9.12
Market Cap
$4.01B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
6.27%
Operating Margin
7.26%
Gross Margin
34.42%
ROE
18.34%
ROA
5.83%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+3.0%
Earnings Growth
+14.1%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+8.8%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.87
Moderate
Current Ratio
1.71
Good
Quick Ratio
0.25
Poor
Cash/Share
$4.34
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-03-19
$N/A
2025-12-09
$1.05
+1.7% surprise
2025-09-02
$1.94
-9.1% surprise
2025-06-10
$0.76
-14.7% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing ASO against 94 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(5 bullish, 49 neutral, 40 bearish)
P/E Ratio
11.05
This Stock
vs
42.97
Sector Avg
-74.3%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
18.34%
This Stock
vs
6.02%
Sector Avg
+204.5%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
6.27%
This Stock
vs
0.78%
Sector Avg
+703.5%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
0.87
This Stock
vs
1.65
Sector Avg
-47.2%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
3.0%
This Stock
vs
7.65%
Sector Avg
-60.8%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.71
This Stock
vs
1.88
Sector Avg
-9.3%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ASO
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $4.01B | 11.05 | 18.3% | 6.3% | $60.13 | |
|
AEO
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $4.09B | 22.35 | 12.4% | 3.9% | $24.14 | |
|
ALH
Alliance Laundry Holdings Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $4.39B | 36.1 | -% | 7.1% | $21.66 | |
|
ANF
Abercrombie & Fitch Co.
|
NEUTRAL | $4.53B | 9.38 | 40.9% | 10.1% | $96.3 | |
|
BBWI
Bath & Body Works, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $4.58B | 6.87 | -% | 9.5% | $22.2 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | LAWRENCE STEVEN PAUL | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 1,991 | - |
| 2026-01-30 | JOHNSON SAMUEL J | President | Stock Award | 1,991 | - |
| 2026-01-30 | MCCABE MATTHEW M. | Officer | Stock Award | 499 | - |
| 2026-01-30 | FORD EARL CARLTON IV | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 499 | - |
| 2026-01-30 | HICKS KENNETH C | Director | Stock Award | 1,245 | - |
| 2025-12-30 | HICKS KENNETH C | Director | Stock Award | 1,244 | - |
| 2025-12-15 | MARLEY BRIAN T | Director | Sale | 20,571 | $1,136,688 |
| 2025-12-05 | JOHNSON SAMUEL J | President | Stock Award | 1,526 | - |
| 2025-11-28 | HICKS KENNETH C | Director | Stock Award | 1,245 | - |
| 2025-10-30 | HICKS KENNETH C | Director | Stock Award | 1,245 | - |
| 2025-09-30 | HICKS KENNETH C | Director | Stock Award | 1,244 | - |
| 2025-09-05 | MCCABE MATTHEW M. | Officer | Stock Award | 1,621 | - |
| 2025-09-05 | FORD EARL CARLTON IV | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 1,621 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
18 analysts
Evercore ISI Group
2026-02-24
In-Line
In-Line
Morgan Stanley
2026-01-15
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Truist Securities
2025-12-10
Hold
Hold
UBS
2025-12-10
Neutral
Neutral
Barclays
2025-12-10
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Telsey Advisory Group
2025-12-10
Outperform
Outperform
B of A Securities
2025-12-10
Neutral
Neutral
Telsey Advisory Group
2025-12-09
Outperform
Outperform
Telsey Advisory Group
2025-12-03
Outperform
Outperform
Evercore ISI Group
2025-10-14
In-Line
In-Line
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning ASO from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.