BAER Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
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BAER Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
Industrials
Security & Protection Services
Current Price
Live
$2.67
Analyst Target
$5.25
+96.6%
Upside
52W High
$3.2
52W Low
$1.02
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$148.3M
P/E
N/A
ROE
8.8%
Profit margin
5.0%
Debt/Equity
2.71
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
65%
Analysis Accuracy
BAER exhibits a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, indicating poor financial health, which significantly undermines its investment profile. Despite strong operating and gross margins, negative Price/Book and lack of Altman Z-Score raise concerns about balance sheet integrity and solvency risk. The stock shows strong recent price momentum with a 6M gain of +45.1% and bullish analyst target of $5.25, but fundamentals remain inconsistent. High debt/equity of 2.71 and volatile earnings history temper optimism, while insider sentiment is neutral and technical trend is weak at 10/100.
Key Strengths
High operating margin of 57.44% suggests strong pricing power or cost control
Strong earnings surprise record: average beat of 30.26% over last 4 quarters
Impressive Q/Q EPS growth of +408.3% indicates potential turnaround
Current ratio of 3.95 and quick ratio of 3.37 signal strong short-term liquidity
Analyst target price of $5.25 implies 97% upside, indicating bullish external sentiment
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 signals weak financial health and high risk of underperformance
Negative Price/Book ratio (-0.46) implies book value erosion or accumulated losses
Debt/Equity of 2.71 is well above sector average (1.73), increasing financial risk
Lack of Altman Z-Score prevents solvency assessment, but high leverage raises distress concerns
Highly volatile earnings: recent quarters show large swings from loss to profit and back
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$5.25
+96.6% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
39
Weak
40
75
50
30
0
AI Verdict
Cautiously optimistic due to growth and margin strength, but held back by weak financial health metrics.
Key drivers: High operating margin, Strong earnings surprise trend, Bullish analyst target, Weak Piotroski score, Negative book value
Confidence
70%
Value
40/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Price/Sales of 1.14 is reasonable for a small-cap growth story
Watchpoints
- P/E and Forward P/E are unavailable, limiting valuation clarity
- Price/Book is negative (-0.46), indicating accounting insolvency risk
- Graham Number is unavailable, preventing defensive valuation benchmark
Future
75/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Earnings Growth (YoY) of 20.50% is strong
- Q/Q Earnings Growth of 26.20% shows acceleration
- Most recent Q/Q EPS growth surged +408.3%
Watchpoints
- Revenue Growth (YoY) of 5.20% is below sector average of 18.78%
Past
50/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 6M price return of +45.1% shows recent recovery
- Quarterly earnings have beaten estimates 3 out of last 4 quarters
Watchpoints
- 5Y price change of -72.5% reflects long-term underperformance
- Earnings history is highly erratic with large negative surprises
Health
30/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current ratio of 3.95 and quick ratio of 3.37 indicate strong liquidity
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates weak financial health
- Debt/Equity of 2.71 is high and above sector average
- ROE (8.75%) below sector average (11.25%)
- Altman Z-Score is unavailable, preventing solvency analysis
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- Dividend Strength is 0/100
- No dividend yield or payout history
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$2.67
Analyst Target
$5.25
Upside/Downside
+96.6%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for BAER and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BAER
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.
Primary
|
-72.5% | -73.8% | -19.8% | +45.1% | +57.1% | -7.0% |
|
BLNK
Blink Charging Co.
Peer
|
-98.1% | -93.4% | -31.0% | -20.5% | +23.4% | +0.3% |
|
BEEP
Mobile Infrastructure Corporation
Peer
|
-71.5% | -71.5% | -24.4% | -23.4% | +8.1% | +12.2% |
|
AP
Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation
Peer
|
-9.9% | +86.9% | +124.0% | +68.0% | +35.6% | +4.9% |
|
BOOM
DMC Global Inc.
Peer
|
-82.9% | -58.0% | +17.2% | +0.7% | +30.1% | +1.5% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
N/A
Forward P/E
N/A
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
-0.46
P/S Ratio
1.14
EV/Revenue
5.41
EV/EBITDA
16.98
Market Cap
$148.3M
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
4.96%
Operating Margin
57.44%
Gross Margin
44.22%
ROE
8.75%
ROA
4.95%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+5.2%
Earnings Growth
+20.5%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+26.2%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
2.71
High debt
Current Ratio
3.95
Strong
Quick Ratio
3.37
Excellent
Cash/Share
$1.04
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-03-12
$N/A
2025-11-06
$0.37
+15.6% surprise
2025-08-07
$-0.12
+57.1% surprise
2025-05-08
$-0.41
+18.0% surprise
Industrials Sector Comparison
Comparing BAER against 122 companies in the Industrials sector
(6 bullish, 59 neutral, 57 bearish)
Return on Equity (ROE)
8.75%
This Stock
vs
7.83%
Sector Avg
+11.7%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
4.96%
This Stock
vs
57.85%
Sector Avg
-91.4%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
2.71
This Stock
vs
5.46
Sector Avg
-50.3%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
5.2%
This Stock
vs
22.8%
Sector Avg
-77.2%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
3.95
This Stock
vs
2.64
Sector Avg
+49.5%
(Stronger)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BAER
Bridger Aerospace Group...
|
NEUTRAL | $148.3M | - | 8.8% | 5.0% | $2.67 | |
|
BLNK
Blink Charging Co.
|
BEARISH | $125.71M | - | -88.5% | -118.4% | $0.89 | |
|
BEEP
Mobile Infrastructure Corporation
|
BEARISH | $124.78M | - | -9.0% | -42.1% | $2.95 | |
|
AP
Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation
|
BEARISH | $121.55M | - | -4.1% | -1.2% | $5.98 | |
|
BOOM
DMC Global Inc.
|
BEARISH | $176.46M | - | -0.2% | -0.3% | $8.57 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-03 | KELTER JEFFREY E | Director | Purchase | 300,000 | $540,210 |
| 2025-11-25 | FASCITELLI ELIZABETH COGAN | Director | Stock Award | 154,145 | - |
| 2025-11-25 | KELTER JEFFREY E | Director | Stock Award | 400,000 | - |
| 2025-11-25 | SAVAGE ROBERT F JR | Director | Stock Award | 208,290 | - |
| 2025-11-25 | FREEDMAN ERNEST MICHAEL | Director | Stock Award | 106,768 | - |
| 2025-11-25 | HELLER DEAN | Director | Stock Award | 154,145 | - |
| 2025-11-25 | HOWARD HUGH WYMAN III | Director | Stock Award | 23,799 | - |
| 2025-11-25 | SCHELLENBERG DAVID ALFRED | Director | Stock Award | 154,145 | - |
| 2025-11-25 | DROHAN DAN | Director | Stock Award | 154,145 | - |
| 2025-11-25 | PASRICHA MEGHAN | Director | Stock Award | 140,609 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
NONE
1 analysts
Canaccord Genuity
2025-11-25
Buy
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning BAER from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.