BLBD
BULLISH
$49.57
Live
Blue Bird Corporation · NASDAQ
Target $63.75
(+28.6%)
$30.04
52W Range
$61.95
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$1.57B
P/E
12.91
ROE
61.6%
Profit margin
8.6%
Debt/Equity
0.38
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
BLBD exhibits strong financial health with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating robust operational and balance sheet strength. The company is growing rapidly, with 16.9% YoY revenue growth and 51.8% earnings growth, supported by improving margins and high returns on equity and assets. Despite a premium valuation relative to the Graham Number ($26.31) and elevated Price/Book ratio, the stock trades below the growth-based intrinsic value estimate of $113.28 and has a strong analyst consensus. However, recent insider selling activity presents a notable counter-signal to the otherwise positive fundamentals.
Key Strengths
Exceptional Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, signaling strong financial health and operational efficiency
High profitability metrics: ROE of 61.56% and ROA of 18.36% far exceed sector averages
Strong earnings and revenue growth: 51.8% YoY earnings growth and 16.9% revenue growth
Solid balance sheet with low Debt/Equity (0.38) and healthy Current Ratio (1.74)
Analyst consensus is strong_buy with a $63.75 target price, implying ~29% upside
Key Risks
Significant insider selling: $7.29M in insider sales over the last 6 months with no buys
Valuation appears stretched: Price/Book of 6.19 and P/E of 12.91 exceed sector median despite strong growth
Lack of Altman Z-Score limits ability to assess bankruptcy risk quantitatively
High historical earnings volatility, including multiple quarters of large negative surprises in 2022
Dividend strength is 0/100 and no yield, reducing appeal for income investors
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$95.5
+92.7% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
65
Strong
65
92
80
90
0
AI Verdict
Strong Buy
Key drivers: High Piotroski F-Score, Exceptional ROE and earnings growth, Analyst strong_buy consensus, Low leverage and strong cash position
Confidence
85%
Value
65/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E of 12.91 is below sector average of 56.41
- Forward P/E of 10.33 suggests earnings expansion
Watchpoints
- Current price ($49.57) is 88% above Graham Number ($26.31)
- Price/Book of 6.19 is high for industrials
Future
92/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- 51.8% YoY earnings growth
- 16.9% revenue growth
- Q/Q earnings growth of 48.00%
- Analyst target implies strong future upside
Watchpoints
No urgent risks highlighted.
Past
80/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Consistent earnings beats in recent quarters (3 of last 4)
- Strong long-term price performance: +226.8% over 3 years
Watchpoints
- Earnings volatility in 2021–2022 with multiple large negative surprises
Health
90/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 (Strong)
- Debt/Equity of 0.38 is conservative
- Current Ratio of 1.74 and Quick Ratio of 1.06 indicate solid liquidity
Watchpoints
- Altman Z-Score not available, limiting distress risk assessment
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- Dividend Strength: 0/100
- No dividend yield or payout history
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$49.57
Analyst Target
$63.75
Upside/Downside
+28.6%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for BLBD and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BLBD
Blue Bird Corporation
Primary
|
+124.7% | +226.8% | +27.2% | +7.6% | -4.4% | +1.1% |
|
NSSC
Napco Security Technologies, Inc.
Peer
|
+176.7% | +36.4% | +107.4% | +2.3% | +3.2% | +3.8% |
|
TH
Target Hospitality Corp.
Peer
|
+453.6% | +21.2% | +145.8% | +118.0% | +72.9% | +8.1% |
|
EOSE
Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc.
Peer
|
-73.2% | +49.0% | +39.1% | -69.0% | -25.6% | -8.0% |
|
RCAT
Red Cat Holdings, Inc.
Peer
|
+218.0% | +1279.6% | +147.9% | +8.3% | -25.2% | +2.8% |
BLB
Blue Bird Corporation
Primary
5Y
+124.7%
3Y
+226.8%
1Y
+27.2%
6M
+7.6%
1M
-4.4%
1W
+1.1%
NSS
Napco Security Technologies, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+176.7%
3Y
+36.4%
1Y
+107.4%
6M
+2.3%
1M
+3.2%
1W
+3.8%
TH
Target Hospitality Corp.
Peer
5Y
+453.6%
3Y
+21.2%
1Y
+145.8%
6M
+118.0%
1M
+72.9%
1W
+8.1%
EOS
Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-73.2%
3Y
+49.0%
1Y
+39.1%
6M
-69.0%
1M
-25.6%
1W
-8.0%
RCA
Red Cat Holdings, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+218.0%
3Y
+1279.6%
1Y
+147.9%
6M
+8.3%
1M
-25.2%
1W
+2.8%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
12.91
Forward P/E
10.33
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
6.19
P/S Ratio
1.06
EV/Revenue
0.97
EV/EBITDA
7.87
Market Cap
$1.57B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
8.63%
Operating Margin
12.36%
Gross Margin
20.51%
ROE
61.56%
ROA
18.36%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+16.9%
Earnings Growth
+51.8%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+48.0%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.38
Low debt
Current Ratio
1.74
Good
Quick Ratio
1.06
Good
Cash/Share
$7.23
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-04
$N/A
2025-11-24
$1.32
+29.1% surprise
2025-08-06
$1.19
+20.9% surprise
2025-05-07
$0.96
+1.0% surprise
Industrials Sector Comparison
Comparing BLBD against 469 companies in the Industrials sector
(39 bullish, 174 neutral, 256 bearish)
P/E Ratio
12.91
This Stock
vs
98.24
Sector Avg
-86.9%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
61.56%
This Stock
vs
-19.38%
Sector Avg
-417.6%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
8.63%
This Stock
vs
6.65%
Sector Avg
+29.7%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
0.38
This Stock
vs
2.63
Sector Avg
-85.6%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
16.9%
This Stock
vs
71.29%
Sector Avg
-76.3%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.74
This Stock
vs
3.09
Sector Avg
-43.8%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BLBD
Blue Bird Corporation
|
BULLISH | $1.57B | 12.91 | 61.6% | 8.6% | $49.57 | |
|
NSSC
Napco Security Technologies, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $1.58B | 33.49 | 26.4% | 24.7% | $44.21 | Compare |
|
TH
Target Hospitality Corp.
|
BEARISH | $1.56B | - | -9.2% | -11.6% | $15.61 | Compare |
|
EOSE
Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $1.56B | - | -% | -% | $4.59 | Compare |
|
RCAT
Red Cat Holdings, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $1.54B | - | -48.7% | -177.0% | $12.72 | Compare |
BLBD
Blue Bird Corporation
BULLISH
Mkt Cap
$1.6B
P/E
12.9
ROE
61.6%
Price
$49.57
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-17 | RADULESCU RAZVAN | Chief Financial Officer | Option Exercise | 7,006 | $86,524 |
| 2025-12-17 | RADULESCU RAZVAN | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 7,006 | $361,369 |
| 2025-12-12 | HORLOCK PHIL | Director | Sale | 15,381 | $775,489 |
| 2025-12-10 | RADULESCU RAZVAN | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 7,984 | $402,314 |
| 2025-12-04 | THAU DANIEL MARK | Director | Purchase | 400 | $20,420 |
| 2025-12-02 | RADULESCU RAZVAN | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 22,190 | - |
| 2025-12-02 | SCARTZ TED | General Counsel | Stock Award | 13,468 | - |
| 2025-12-02 | WYSKIEL JOHN F. | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 48,331 | - |
| 2025-12-02 | SANFREY JEFFREY SCOTT | Chief Operating Officer | Stock Award | 10,257 | - |
| 2025-09-12 | HORLOCK PHIL | Director | Option Exercise | 13,578 | $275,090 |
| 2025-09-12 | HORLOCK PHIL | Director | Sale | 13,578 | $787,524 |
| 2025-09-02 | RADULESCU RAZVAN | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 6,709 | $385,164 |
| 2025-08-28 | HORLOCK PHIL | Director | Option Exercise | 13,000 | $263,380 |
| 2025-08-28 | HORLOCK PHIL | Director | Sale | 13,000 | $767,260 |
| 2025-08-18 | HORLOCK PHIL | Director | Option Exercise | 42,258 | $717,963 |
RADULESCU RAZVAN
Chief Financial Officer
2025-12-17
7,006 shares
·
$86,524
RADULESCU RAZVAN
Chief Financial Officer
2025-12-17
7,006 shares
·
$361,369
HORLOCK PHIL
Director
2025-12-12
15,381 shares
·
$775,489
RADULESCU RAZVAN
Chief Financial Officer
2025-12-10
7,984 shares
·
$402,314
THAU DANIEL MARK
Director
2025-12-04
400 shares
·
$20,420
RADULESCU RAZVAN
Chief Financial Officer
2025-12-02
22,190 shares
SCARTZ TED
General Counsel
2025-12-02
13,468 shares
WYSKIEL JOHN F.
Chief Executive Officer
2025-12-02
48,331 shares
SANFREY JEFFREY SCOTT
Chief Operating Officer
2025-12-02
10,257 shares
HORLOCK PHIL
Director
2025-09-12
13,578 shares
·
$275,090
HORLOCK PHIL
Director
2025-09-12
13,578 shares
·
$787,524
RADULESCU RAZVAN
Chief Financial Officer
2025-09-02
6,709 shares
·
$385,164
HORLOCK PHIL
Director
2025-08-28
13,000 shares
·
$263,380
HORLOCK PHIL
Director
2025-08-28
13,000 shares
·
$767,260
HORLOCK PHIL
Director
2025-08-18
42,258 shares
·
$717,963
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
STRONG_BUY
8 analysts
DA Davidson
2025-11-25
Buy
Buy
B of A Securities
2025-11-25
Buy
Buy
Needham
2025-11-25
Buy
Buy
BTIG
2025-11-25
Buy
Buy
DA Davidson
2025-11-20
Buy
Buy
Needham
2025-11-03
Buy
Buy
BTIG
2025-09-16
Buy
Buy
Needham
2025-08-07
Buy
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning BLBD from our newsroom.
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