CME CME Group Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Key Strengths
Key Risks
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
CME’s valuation is premium to the Financial Services sector average P/E of 21.8x and higher than profitable peers like MMC (21.92), despite weaker revenue growth than most, making it appear relatively expensive for its growth profile.
- P/E of 27.6x is in line with close peer ICE (27.7x), suggesting market is pricing in stability
- Price/Sales of 16.1x reflects pricing power in exchange business model
- P/E of 27.6x is 26.7% above sector average of 21.8x, with no growth premium to justify it
- Lack of EV/EBITDA and forward cash flow data limits deep value assessment
With revenue and earnings flat to down and 6M price return of only +4.1%, future momentum is muted despite strong 1Y and 3Y returns, suggesting recent performance may be priced in without clear catalysts ahead.
- Exchange business model benefits from long-term trends in derivatives adoption and risk management demand
- Potential for volume recovery in rates and equity index futures if volatility increases in 2026
- Revenue down 3.0% YoY and Q/Q EPS down 9.5%, indicating weakening near-term momentum
- No visibility on growth reacceleration given flat earnings and lack of Q/Q growth data
CME has delivered exceptional earnings predictability and strong long-term price performance (5Y +107%, 3Y +88.5%), underpinned by consistent margin strength, though ROA suggests capital intensity or low asset turnover.
- Remarkable earnings consistency: 23 of last 25 quarters beat or met estimates, with only two misses over five years
- Profit margins and ROE have remained stable, demonstrating pricing power and cost discipline
- Gross margin reported at 100% is likely a data artifact (common in service firms with no COGS), overstating operational efficiency
- ROA of 1.60% is very low, indicating inefficient asset utilization despite high ROE
While CME’s leverage is well below sector average of 0.82 and peers like MCO (1.81), its near-zero quick ratio is a structural red flag unless explained by regulatory cash segregation, which is typical for exchanges but still warrants scrutiny.
- Very low Debt/Equity of 0.13, providing significant financial flexibility and resilience
- No immediate refinancing risk due to conservative leverage
- Current ratio of 1.02 and quick ratio of 0.02 indicate severe liquidity risk—likely due to customer cash segregation in exchange operations
- Missing total cash and debt figures limit full solvency assessment
The dividend offers income appeal but is not conservatively funded, with a payout ratio above 100%, making it riskier than peers with lower yields but stronger coverage like MMC or ICE.
- Dividend yield of 1.75% is attractive in current rate environment and above S&P 500 average (~1.5%)
- Company maintains consistent payout with $5.00 annual rate, signaling policy discipline
- Payout ratio of 103.68% exceeds 100%, meaning dividends are being paid from sources other than net income, raising sustainability concerns
- No data on dividend growth history or 5-year average yield limits visibility into commitment
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for CME and closest competitors.
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
CME
CME Group Inc.
Primary
|
+107.0% | +88.5% | +33.3% | +4.1% | +6.3% | +3.1% |
|
BN
Brookfield Corporation
Peer
|
+139.4% | +96.9% | +19.5% | +4.9% | +1.2% | -0.4% |
|
BMO
Bank of Montreal
Peer
|
+120.0% | +57.5% | +42.1% | +21.6% | +5.5% | +0.9% |
|
HOOD
Robinhood Markets, Inc.
Peer
|
+212.3% | +1042.2% | +136.0% | -0.9% | -6.1% | -5.7% |
|
BNS
The Bank of Nova Scotia
Peer
|
+76.6% | +68.7% | +49.2% | +32.2% | +1.1% | +1.9% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
Financial Services Sector Comparison
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
CME
CME Group Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $102.78B | 27.62 | 13.3% | 58.9% | $285.04 | |
|
BN
Brookfield Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $106.0B | 131.03 | 1.0% | 1.3% | $47.17 | |
|
BMO
Bank of Montreal
|
NEUTRAL | $98.97B | 16.77 | 10.1% | 26.7% | $137.69 | |
|
HOOD
Robinhood Markets, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $97.78B | 45.5 | 27.8% | 52.2% | $108.74 | |
|
BNS
The Bank of Nova Scotia
|
NEUTRAL | $93.29B | 18.17 | 9.0% | 24.6% | $74.87 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | PIELL HILDA HARRIS | Officer | Gift | 973 | - |
| 2025-11-03 | FORD HAROLD EUGENE JR | Director | Sale | 1,000 | $263,530 |
| 2025-09-18 | MARCUS JONATHAN L | General Counsel | Sale | 392 | $102,704 |
| 2025-09-16 | MCCOURT TIMOTHY FRANCIS | Officer | Sale | 379 | $98,476 |
| 2025-09-16 | MARCUS JONATHAN L | General Counsel | Sale | 376 | $97,369 |
| 2025-09-15 | DUFFY TERRENCE A | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 23,180 | $5,999,679 |
| 2025-09-15 | SPRAGUE SUZANNE | Officer | Stock Award | 3,044 | $787,879 |
| 2025-09-15 | FITZPATRICK LYNNE | President | Stock Award | 4,348 | $1,125,393 |
| 2025-09-15 | MCCOURT TIMOTHY FRANCIS | Officer | Stock Award | 2,752 | $712,300 |
| 2025-09-15 | MARCUS JONATHAN L | General Counsel | Stock Award | 2,464 | $637,757 |
| 2025-09-15 | DENNIS MICHAEL G | Officer | Stock Award | 2,608 | $675,029 |
| 2025-09-15 | TOBIN JACK J | Officer | Stock Award | 1,546 | $400,151 |
| 2025-09-15 | WINKLER JULIE | Officer | Stock Award | 3,044 | $787,879 |
| 2025-09-15 | CUTINHO SUNIL KIRAN | Chief Technology Officer | Stock Award | 3,044 | $787,879 |
| 2025-09-15 | SAMMANN DEREK LOUIS | Officer | Stock Award | 3,044 | $787,879 |
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning CME from our newsroom.