COST Costco Wholesale Corporation - Fundamental Analysis
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COST Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
Consumer Defensive
Discount Stores
Current Price
Live
$963.61
Analyst Target
$1030.19
+6.9%
Upside
52W High
$1078.23
52W Low
$844.06
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 17, 2026
Market cap
$427.8B
P/E
51.64
ROE
30.3%
Profit margin
3.0%
Debt/Equity
0.27
Dividend yield
0.54%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
72%
COST's Advanced Deterministic Scorecard shows a weak Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating marginal financial health, and the absence of an Altman Z-Score prevents a full distress risk assessment. Despite this, the company exhibits strong profitability with ROE of 30.33% and solid earnings growth of 11.4% YoY, supported by consistent analyst buy recommendations and a target price of $1,030.19. However, elevated valuation metrics—P/E of 51.64 versus sector average of 25.33—and bearish insider activity, with $10.96M in net officer sales, counterbalance its strengths. The stock trades significantly above the Graham Number ($169.29), suggesting it is priced for near-perfect execution, leaving limited margin of safety.
Key Strengths
High ROE of 30.33% indicates efficient use of shareholder equity
Strong year-over-year earnings growth of 11.4% and revenue growth of 8.3%
Low debt/equity ratio of 0.27, reflecting conservative capital structure
Consistent earnings beat record: 3 out of last 4 quarters exceeded estimates
Analyst consensus supports upside with a $1,030.19 target price
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 signals weak to stable financial health, raising concerns about balance sheet and operational efficiency trends
Extremely high P/E ratio of 51.64, more than double the sector average, implies overvaluation risk
Bearish insider sentiment: $10.96M in net officer sales over last 6 months
Current price ($963.61) is 468% above Graham Number ($169.29), indicating minimal margin of safety
Technical trend score of 0/100 suggests deteriorating price momentum near 52-week high
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$449.71
-53.3% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
57
Moderate
38
70
66
52
58
AI Verdict
Moderately positive, but constrained by valuation and financial health concerns
Key drivers: High profitability (ROE, ROA), Strong earnings growth, Low leverage, Rich valuation multiples, Weak Piotroski score
Confidence
75%
Value
38/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E (43.38) is lower than current P/E, suggesting some earnings growth expectation
Watchpoints
- P/E of 51.64 is extremely high vs sector avg (25.33)
- Price/Book of 14.12 indicates significant premium to book value
- Current price trades far above Graham Number ($169.29)
Future
70/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Revenue growth (8.3% YoY) above sector average (5.11%)
- Earnings growth (11.4% YoY) robust
- Analyst target implies 6.9% upside
Watchpoints
- Q/Q EPS growth recently declined by 23.3%
- PEG ratio unavailable, limiting growth-adjusted valuation insight
Past
66/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Long history of earnings beats: 21 out of 25 quarters beat or met estimates
- 5-year price return of +187.3% reflects strong shareholder returns
Watchpoints
- Earnings surprise volatility, including -14.5% and -12.0% misses
- 1-year return of +5.3% lags sector peers
Health
52/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Debt/Equity of 0.27 is very low, indicating strong solvency
- ROA of 8.52% is healthy for retail
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- Quick ratio of 0.49 suggests potential short-term liquidity pressure
- Altman Z-Score unavailable, limiting distress risk analysis
Dividend
58/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Payout ratio of 27.1% is sustainable
- Dividend has been consistently increased annually
Watchpoints
- Dividend strength score of 25/100 indicates weak yield and growth
- Yield of 0.54% is very low for income investors
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$963.61
Analyst Target
$1030.19
Upside/Downside
+6.9%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for COST and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-16
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation
Primary
|
+187.3% | +106.3% | +5.3% | +1.6% | +11.7% | +4.2% |
|
PG
The Procter & Gamble Company
Peer
|
+22.6% | +3.6% | -7.6% | -6.2% | -2.2% | +1.9% |
|
KO
The Coca-Cola Company
Peer
|
+68.8% | +25.0% | +16.5% | +2.3% | -0.3% | -0.1% |
|
PM
Philip Morris International Inc.
Peer
|
+153.1% | +89.2% | +25.8% | -7.3% | -1.5% | +1.3% |
|
PEP
PepsiCo, Inc.
Peer
|
+20.2% | -8.2% | +3.8% | +4.2% | -2.5% | +4.6% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
51.64
Forward P/E
43.38
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
14.12
P/S Ratio
1.53
EV/Revenue
1.49
EV/EBITDA
31.9
Market Cap
$427.8B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
2.96%
Operating Margin
3.66%
Gross Margin
12.88%
ROE
30.33%
ROA
8.52%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+8.3%
Earnings Growth
+11.4%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+11.3%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.27
Low debt
Current Ratio
1.04
Good
Quick Ratio
0.49
Poor
Cash/Share
$38.71
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-03-05
$N/A
2025-12-11
$4.5
+5.4% surprise
2025-09-25
$5.87
+1.2% surprise
2025-05-29
$4.28
+0.9% surprise
Consumer Defensive Sector Comparison
Comparing COST against 48 companies in the Consumer Defensive sector
(2 bullish, 27 neutral, 19 bearish)
P/E Ratio
51.64
This Stock
vs
33.55
Sector Avg
+53.9%
(Expensive)
Return on Equity (ROE)
30.33%
This Stock
vs
4.76%
Sector Avg
+536.8%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
2.96%
This Stock
vs
-1.1%
Sector Avg
-369.4%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.27
This Stock
vs
1.71
Sector Avg
-84.2%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
8.3%
This Stock
vs
8.83%
Sector Avg
-5.9%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.04
This Stock
vs
1.98
Sector Avg
-47.7%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $427.8B | 51.64 | 30.3% | 3.0% | $963.61 | |
|
PG
The Procter & Gamble Company
|
NEUTRAL | $338.27B | 21.07 | 31.9% | 19.7% | $144.53 | |
|
KO
The Coca-Cola Company
|
NEUTRAL | $303.15B | 23.32 | 42.4% | 27.3% | $70.44 | |
|
PM
Philip Morris International Inc.
|
BULLISH | $241.95B | 22.17 | -% | 21.6% | $155.43 | |
|
PEP
PepsiCo, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $200.32B | 27.82 | 37.2% | 7.8% | $146.32 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | KLAUER JAMES C | Officer | Sale | 1,500 | $1,408,500 |
| 2026-01-09 | MILLER RUSSELL D | Officer | Sale | 1,500 | $1,374,480 |
| 2025-12-30 | POLIT JAVIER | Officer | Sale | 2,607 | $2,258,662 |
| 2025-12-19 | DENMAN KENNETH D | Director | Gift | 325 | - |
| 2025-12-15 | DECKER SUSAN LYNNE | Director | Gift | 2,827 | - |
| 2025-11-10 | RAIKES JEFFREY S | Director | Gift | 4,120 | - |
| 2025-11-07 | WILCOX WILLIAM RICHARD | Officer | Sale | 2,400 | $2,232,312 |
| 2025-10-24 | ADAMO CLAUDINE | Officer | Sale | 2,700 | $2,526,336 |
| 2025-10-24 | BARBRE TIFFANY MARIE | Divisional Officer | Sale | 1,239 | $1,158,353 |
| 2025-10-22 | STANTON JOHN W. | Director | Stock Award | 286 | - |
| 2025-10-22 | DENMAN KENNETH D | Director | Stock Award | 286 | - |
| 2025-10-22 | DECKER SUSAN LYNNE | Director | Stock Award | 286 | - |
| 2025-10-22 | JEWELL SALLY | Director | Stock Award | 286 | - |
| 2025-10-22 | JAMES HAMILTON E | Director | Stock Award | 286 | - |
| 2025-10-22 | WILDEROTTER MARY AGNES | Director | Stock Award | 286 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
31 analysts
Telsey Advisory Group
2026-01-08
Outperform
Outperform
Mizuho
2026-01-05
Neutral
Outperform
Telsey Advisory Group
2026-01-02
Outperform
Outperform
Northcoast Research
2025-12-24
Neutral
Buy
Wells Fargo
2025-12-19
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Roth Capital
2025-12-15
Neutral
Sell
JP Morgan
2025-12-12
Overweight
Overweight
Goldman Sachs
2025-12-12
Buy
Buy
Baird
2025-12-12
Outperform
Outperform
Bernstein
2025-12-12
Outperform
Outperform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning COST from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.