FAST
NEUTRAL
$40.45
Live
Fastenal Company · NASDAQ
Target $43.46
(+7.4%)
$35.3
52W Range
$50.63
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Nov 16, 2025
Market cap
$46.78B
P/E
38.16
ROE
32.7%
Profit margin
15.3%
Debt/Equity
0.13
Dividend yield
2.18%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
72%
Fastenal Company trades at a premium valuation with solid profitability and financial health, but recent price underperformance and mixed earnings execution temper near-term upside. The stock's P/E of 38.16 is well above sector average (31.89) and close peers like NSC and PCAR, though justified somewhat by superior ROE (32.74%) and disciplined capital structure (Debt/Equity: 0.13). Revenue and earnings growth remain healthy at ~11.7% and 11.5% YoY, but insider selling worth $10.16M over the past six months raises caution. Analysts are tepid with a 'hold' consensus and a $43.46 target implying only 7.4% upside, while the dividend yield of 2.18% offers modest support.
Key Strengths
Exceptional profitability with ROE of 32.74% vs sector avg of 31.90% and peer CPRT at 18.48%
Strong balance sheet: Debt/Equity of 0.13 vs sector average of 1.44, indicating conservative leverage
High gross margin of 45.15%, reflecting pricing power and efficient supply chain in industrial distribution
Operating margin of 20.70% exceeds sector average profit margin (13.67%) by over 50%
Healthy dividend yield of 2.18% with a long-standing payout history providing income floor
Key Risks
Elevated valuation: P/E of 38.16 vs sector avg 31.89 and forward P/E of 18.47 suggesting limited near-term multiple expansion
Recent insider selling: $10.16M in sales by executives including CEO and President signals lack of confidence
High payout ratio of 79.81% leaves little room for dividend growth or reinvestment during downturns
Near-term price weakness: -3.7% over 1M and -1.6% over 6M underperforms peers like NSC (+16.5% 6M)
Only 2 out of last 4 quarters beat estimates, with average surprise of just 1.66%, indicating inconsistent execution
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$43.5
+7.5% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
68
Strong
52
65
74
88
60
AI Verdict
Fastenal demonstrates high-quality profitability and financial discipline, but its premium valuation and recent insider selling constrain upside relative to peers like NSC and CPRT that are trading at lower multiples and showing stronger price momentum. While fundamentals remain robust, the lack of earnings acceleration and tepid analyst sentiment limit near-term catalysts.
Key drivers: Superior ROE and margin profile vs sector, Low leverage enhancing financial resilience, Modest growth trajectory with limited surprise beat frequency
Confidence
75%
Value
52/100
Valuation metrics place FAST among the most expensive names in the industrials sector, with only CARR trading at a higher P/E (33.81), yet FAST delivers stronger growth and ROE, partially justifying the spread.
Positives
- Forward P/E of 18.47 suggests some de-rating from current 38.16 multiple may already be priced in
- Price/Sales of 5.85 is in line with high-margin industrial distributors
Watchpoints
- Current P/E of 38.16 is significantly above sector average of 31.89 and peers like PCAR (18.74) and NSC (21.64)
- Price/Book of 11.93 indicates extreme premium to tangible assets
Future
65/100
While FAST maintains above-trend growth in a slowing industrial environment, price momentum has weakened (-3.7% over 1M), lagging peers like NSC that have seen strong rebounds, suggesting investor rotation away from richly valued names.
Positives
- Revenue and earnings growing at 11.7% and 11.5% YoY, outpacing sector average growth of 6.05%
- Q/Q earnings growth of 12.5% shows sequential momentum
Watchpoints
- Most recent Q/Q EPS growth is flat at +0.0%, raising concerns about near-term inflection
- Analyst target implies only 7.4% upside, signaling limited conviction in re-rating
Past
74/100
FAST has delivered strong long-term returns and stable margins, but recent quarters show diminishing earnings beat frequency and size, contrasting with earlier consistency seen in 2020–2022.
Positives
- Consistent profitability with operating margin above 20% and ROA of 20.50% over time
- Long-term share performance strong: +89.3% over 5Y and +68.9% over 3Y
Watchpoints
- Only 2 of last 4 quarters beat estimates, with two misses including a -3.7% surprise
- Earnings surprises have trended lower in magnitude, from double-digit beats in 2020 to single digits recently
Health
88/100
FAST’s balance sheet is among the strongest in the sector, with minimal leverage compared to peers like NSC (1.16) and sector average (1.44), enabling resilience in downturns and strategic agility.
Positives
- Exceptionally low Debt/Equity of 0.13 provides significant financial flexibility
- Current ratio of 4.26 and quick ratio of 1.96 indicate robust short-term liquidity
Watchpoints
- Missing Total Cash and Total Debt figures limit full liquidity runway assessment
- High ROIC dependency not confirmed due to missing ROIC data
Dividend
60/100
The dividend provides a modest yield and income anchor, but the high payout ratio near 80% suggests limited room for increases without earnings acceleration, especially in a cyclical sector.
Positives
- Dividend yield of 2.18% is attractive in current rate environment
- Consistent annual payout supports income-oriented investors
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 79.81% is high for an industrial firm, limiting reinvestment capacity
- No data on dividend growth history or streak, raising sustainability questions
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$40.45
Analyst Target
$43.46
Upside/Downside
+7.4%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for FAST and closest competitors.
Updated 2025-11-14
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
FAST
Fastenal Company
Primary
|
+89.3% | +68.9% | +0.6% | -1.6% | -3.7% | -1.0% |
|
CARR
Carrier Global Corporation
Peer
|
+43.0% | +27.2% | -26.9% | -28.0% | -5.1% | -5.9% |
|
AXON
Axon Enterprise, Inc.
Peer
|
+251.3% | +224.5% | -0.0% | -16.6% | +3.7% | -3.6% |
|
RKLB
Rocket Lab Corporation
Peer
|
+689.6% | +1978.4% | +329.6% | +28.0% | +22.1% | +24.6% |
|
GWW
W.W. Grainger, Inc.
Peer
|
+136.1% | +63.6% | -20.5% | -15.5% | -3.1% | -2.8% |
FAS
Fastenal Company
Primary
5Y
+89.3%
3Y
+68.9%
1Y
+0.6%
6M
-1.6%
1M
-3.7%
1W
-1.0%
CAR
Carrier Global Corporation
Peer
5Y
+43.0%
3Y
+27.2%
1Y
-26.9%
6M
-28.0%
1M
-5.1%
1W
-5.9%
AXO
Axon Enterprise, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+251.3%
3Y
+224.5%
1Y
-0.0%
6M
-16.6%
1M
+3.7%
1W
-3.6%
RKL
Rocket Lab Corporation
Peer
5Y
+689.6%
3Y
+1978.4%
1Y
+329.6%
6M
+28.0%
1M
+22.1%
1W
+24.6%
GWW
W.W. Grainger, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+136.1%
3Y
+63.6%
1Y
-20.5%
6M
-15.5%
1M
-3.1%
1W
-2.8%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
38.16
Forward P/E
18.47
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
11.93
P/S Ratio
5.85
EV/Revenue
5.83
EV/EBITDA
25.99
Market Cap
$46.78B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
15.34%
Operating Margin
20.7%
Gross Margin
45.15%
ROE
32.74%
ROA
20.5%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+11.7%
Earnings Growth
+11.5%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+12.5%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.13
Low debt
Current Ratio
4.26
Strong
Quick Ratio
1.96
Excellent
Cash/Share
$0.25
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-01-19
$N/A
2025-10-13
$0.29
-2.4% surprise
2025-07-14
$0.29
+7.3% surprise
2025-04-11
$0.26
+0.1% surprise
Industrials Sector Comparison
Comparing FAST against 469 companies in the Industrials sector
(39 bullish, 174 neutral, 256 bearish)
P/E Ratio
38.16
This Stock
vs
98.24
Sector Avg
-61.2%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
32.74%
This Stock
vs
-19.38%
Sector Avg
-268.9%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
15.34%
This Stock
vs
6.65%
Sector Avg
+130.5%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
0.13
This Stock
vs
2.63
Sector Avg
-95.0%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
11.7%
This Stock
vs
71.29%
Sector Avg
-83.6%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
4.26
This Stock
vs
3.09
Sector Avg
+37.8%
(Stronger)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
FAST
Fastenal Company
|
NEUTRAL | $46.78B | 38.16 | 32.7% | 15.3% | $40.45 | |
|
CARR
Carrier Global Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $46.46B | 33.81 | 10.0% | 18.1% | $54.1 | Compare |
|
AXON
Axon Enterprise, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $48.71B | 192.21 | 10.0% | 10.1% | $613.14 | Compare |
|
RKLB
Rocket Lab Corporation
|
BEARISH | $49.02B | - | -18.8% | -32.9% | $84.8 | Compare |
|
GWW
W.W. Grainger, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $44.46B | 25.97 | 46.7% | 9.7% | $926.21 | Compare |
FAST
Fastenal Company
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$46.8B
P/E
38.2
ROE
32.7%
Price
$40.45
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-12 | EASTMAN STEPHEN L | Director | Purchase | 1,000 | $40,816 |
| 2025-10-16 | HSU HSENGHUNG SAM | Director | Purchase | 1,000 | $42,450 |
| 2025-10-14 | ANCIUS MICHAEL J | Director | Option Exercise | 2,000 | $86,390 |
| 2025-08-15 | DRAZKOWSKI WILLIAM JOSEPH | Officer | Sale | 6,842 | $333,012 |
| 2025-08-15 | DRAZKOWSKI WILLIAM JOSEPH | Officer | Option Exercise | 6,842 | $129,998 |
| 2025-08-12 | FLORNESS DANIEL LARS | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 84,612 | $4,098,673 |
| 2025-08-12 | FLORNESS DANIEL LARS | Chief Executive Officer | Option Exercise | 84,612 | $1,099,956 |
| 2025-08-08 | SODERBERG JOHN LEWIS | Officer | Sale | 34,612 | $1,662,421 |
| 2025-08-08 | WATTS JEFFERY MICHAEL | President | Sale | 48,724 | $2,341,202 |
| 2025-08-08 | SODERBERG JOHN LEWIS | Officer | Option Exercise | 34,612 | $449,956 |
| 2025-08-08 | WATTS JEFFERY MICHAEL | President | Option Exercise | 48,724 | $657,955 |
| 2025-07-24 | BROERSMA ANTHONY PAUL | Officer | Sale | 13,582 | $650,931 |
| 2025-07-24 | BROERSMA ANTHONY PAUL | Officer | Option Exercise | 13,582 | $206,170 |
| 2025-07-17 | LISOWSKI SHERYL ANN | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 21,052 | $951,832 |
| 2025-07-17 | LISOWSKI SHERYL ANN | Chief Financial Officer | Option Exercise | 21,052 | $479,988 |
EASTMAN STEPHEN L
Director
2025-11-12
1,000 shares
·
$40,816
HSU HSENGHUNG SAM
Director
2025-10-16
1,000 shares
·
$42,450
ANCIUS MICHAEL J
Director
2025-10-14
2,000 shares
·
$86,390
DRAZKOWSKI WILLIAM JOSEPH
Officer
2025-08-15
6,842 shares
·
$333,012
DRAZKOWSKI WILLIAM JOSEPH
Officer
2025-08-15
6,842 shares
·
$129,998
FLORNESS DANIEL LARS
Chief Executive Officer
2025-08-12
84,612 shares
·
$4,098,673
FLORNESS DANIEL LARS
Chief Executive Officer
2025-08-12
84,612 shares
·
$1,099,956
SODERBERG JOHN LEWIS
Officer
2025-08-08
34,612 shares
·
$1,662,421
WATTS JEFFERY MICHAEL
President
2025-08-08
48,724 shares
·
$2,341,202
SODERBERG JOHN LEWIS
Officer
2025-08-08
34,612 shares
·
$449,956
WATTS JEFFERY MICHAEL
President
2025-08-08
48,724 shares
·
$657,955
BROERSMA ANTHONY PAUL
Officer
2025-07-24
13,582 shares
·
$650,931
BROERSMA ANTHONY PAUL
Officer
2025-07-24
13,582 shares
·
$206,170
LISOWSKI SHERYL ANN
Chief Financial Officer
2025-07-17
21,052 shares
·
$951,832
LISOWSKI SHERYL ANN
Chief Financial Officer
2025-07-17
21,052 shares
·
$479,988
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
13 analysts
Barclays
2025-11-13
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Wolfe Research
2025-11-13
Peer Perform
Underperform
Bernstein
2025-11-12
Underperform
Barclays
2025-10-14
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Barclays
2025-10-08
Equal-Weight
JP Morgan
2025-09-04
Neutral
Neutral
Baird
2025-08-07
Neutral
Outperform
JP Morgan
2025-07-15
Neutral
Neutral
Baird
2025-07-15
Neutral
Neutral
Stephens & Co.
2025-07-15
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning FAST from our newsroom.
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