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FAST Fastenal Company - Fundamental Analysis

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FAST Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ Industrials Industrial Distribution
Current Price Live
$40.45
Analyst Target
$43.46
+7.4% Upside
52W High
$50.63
52W Low
$35.3

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Nov 16, 2025
Market cap
$46.78B
P/E
38.16
ROE
32.7%
Profit margin
15.3%
Debt/Equity
0.13
Dividend yield
2.18%

AI Analysis

Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms

Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
Fastenal Company trades at a premium valuation with solid profitability and financial health, but recent price underperformance and mixed earnings execution temper near-term upside. The stock's P/E of 38.16 is well above sector average (31.89) and close peers like NSC and PCAR, though justified somewhat by superior ROE (32.74%) and disciplined capital structure (Debt/Equity: 0.13). Revenue and earnings growth remain healthy at ~11.7% and 11.5% YoY, but insider selling worth $10.16M over the past six months raises caution. Analysts are tepid with a 'hold' consensus and a $43.46 target implying only 7.4% upside, while the dividend yield of 2.18% offers modest support.

Key Strengths

Exceptional profitability with ROE of 32.74% vs sector avg of 31.90% and peer CPRT at 18.48%
Strong balance sheet: Debt/Equity of 0.13 vs sector average of 1.44, indicating conservative leverage
High gross margin of 45.15%, reflecting pricing power and efficient supply chain in industrial distribution
Operating margin of 20.70% exceeds sector average profit margin (13.67%) by over 50%
Healthy dividend yield of 2.18% with a long-standing payout history providing income floor

Key Risks

Elevated valuation: P/E of 38.16 vs sector avg 31.89 and forward P/E of 18.47 suggesting limited near-term multiple expansion
Recent insider selling: $10.16M in sales by executives including CEO and President signals lack of confidence
High payout ratio of 79.81% leaves little room for dividend growth or reinvestment during downturns
Near-term price weakness: -3.7% over 1M and -1.6% over 6M underperforms peers like NSC (+16.5% 6M)
Only 2 out of last 4 quarters beat estimates, with average surprise of just 1.66%, indicating inconsistent execution
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$43.5
+7.5% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
68
Strong
Value
52
Future
65
Past
74
Health
88
Dividend
60
AI Verdict
Fastenal demonstrates high-quality profitability and financial discipline, but its premium valuation and recent insider selling constrain upside relative to peers like NSC and CPRT that are trading at lower multiples and showing stronger price momentum. While fundamentals remain robust, the lack of earnings acceleration and tepid analyst sentiment limit near-term catalysts.
Key drivers: Superior ROE and margin profile vs sector, Low leverage enhancing financial resilience, Modest growth trajectory with limited surprise beat frequency
Confidence
75%
Value
52/100

Valuation metrics place FAST among the most expensive names in the industrials sector, with only CARR trading at a higher P/E (33.81), yet FAST delivers stronger growth and ROE, partially justifying the spread.

Positives
  • Forward P/E of 18.47 suggests some de-rating from current 38.16 multiple may already be priced in
  • Price/Sales of 5.85 is in line with high-margin industrial distributors
Watchpoints
  • Current P/E of 38.16 is significantly above sector average of 31.89 and peers like PCAR (18.74) and NSC (21.64)
  • Price/Book of 11.93 indicates extreme premium to tangible assets
Future
65/100

While FAST maintains above-trend growth in a slowing industrial environment, price momentum has weakened (-3.7% over 1M), lagging peers like NSC that have seen strong rebounds, suggesting investor rotation away from richly valued names.

Positives
  • Revenue and earnings growing at 11.7% and 11.5% YoY, outpacing sector average growth of 6.05%
  • Q/Q earnings growth of 12.5% shows sequential momentum
Watchpoints
  • Most recent Q/Q EPS growth is flat at +0.0%, raising concerns about near-term inflection
  • Analyst target implies only 7.4% upside, signaling limited conviction in re-rating
Past
74/100

FAST has delivered strong long-term returns and stable margins, but recent quarters show diminishing earnings beat frequency and size, contrasting with earlier consistency seen in 2020–2022.

Positives
  • Consistent profitability with operating margin above 20% and ROA of 20.50% over time
  • Long-term share performance strong: +89.3% over 5Y and +68.9% over 3Y
Watchpoints
  • Only 2 of last 4 quarters beat estimates, with two misses including a -3.7% surprise
  • Earnings surprises have trended lower in magnitude, from double-digit beats in 2020 to single digits recently
Health
88/100

FAST’s balance sheet is among the strongest in the sector, with minimal leverage compared to peers like NSC (1.16) and sector average (1.44), enabling resilience in downturns and strategic agility.

Positives
  • Exceptionally low Debt/Equity of 0.13 provides significant financial flexibility
  • Current ratio of 4.26 and quick ratio of 1.96 indicate robust short-term liquidity
Watchpoints
  • Missing Total Cash and Total Debt figures limit full liquidity runway assessment
  • High ROIC dependency not confirmed due to missing ROIC data
Dividend
60/100

The dividend provides a modest yield and income anchor, but the high payout ratio near 80% suggests limited room for increases without earnings acceleration, especially in a cyclical sector.

Positives
  • Dividend yield of 2.18% is attractive in current rate environment
  • Consistent annual payout supports income-oriented investors
Watchpoints
  • Payout ratio of 79.81% is high for an industrial firm, limiting reinvestment capacity
  • No data on dividend growth history or streak, raising sustainability questions

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$40.45
Analyst Target
$43.46
Upside/Downside
+7.4%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for FAST and closest competitors.

Updated 2025-11-14
Company 5Y 3Y 1Y 6M 1M 1W
FAST
Fastenal Company
Primary
+89.3% +68.9% +0.6% -1.6% -3.7% -1.0%
CARR
Carrier Global Corporation
Peer
+43.0% +27.2% -26.9% -28.0% -5.1% -5.9%
DAL
Delta Air Lines, Inc.
Peer
+79.6% +89.2% +7.7% +25.9% +1.0% -2.6%
AXON
Axon Enterprise, Inc.
Peer
+251.3% +224.5% -0.0% -16.6% +3.7% -3.6%
GWW
W.W. Grainger, Inc.
Peer
+136.1% +63.6% -20.5% -15.5% -3.1% -2.8%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
38.16
Forward P/E
18.47
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
11.93
P/S Ratio
5.85
EV/Revenue
5.83
EV/EBITDA
25.99
Market Cap
$46.78B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 15.34%
Operating Margin 20.7%
Gross Margin 45.15%
ROE 32.74%
ROA 20.5%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +11.7%
Earnings Growth +11.5%
Q/Q Revenue Growth N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth +12.5%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.13
Low debt
Current Ratio
4.26
Strong
Quick Ratio
1.96
Excellent
Cash/Share
$0.25

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-01-19
$N/A
2025-10-13
$0.29
-2.4% surprise
2025-07-14
$0.29
+7.3% surprise
2025-04-11
$0.26
+0.1% surprise

Industrials Sector Comparison

Comparing FAST against 122 companies in the Industrials sector (6 bullish, 60 neutral, 56 bearish)
P/E Ratio
38.16
This Stock
vs
73.57
Sector Avg
-48.1% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
32.74%
This Stock
vs
8.07%
Sector Avg
+306.0% (Excellent)
Profit Margin
15.34%
This Stock
vs
58.18%
Sector Avg
-73.6% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.13
This Stock
vs
5.46
Sector Avg
-97.6% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
11.7%
This Stock
vs
22.74%
Sector Avg
-48.5% (Slower)
Current Ratio
4.26
This Stock
vs
2.64
Sector Avg
+61.4% (Stronger)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Company AI Rating Market Cap P/E ROE Profit Margin Price
FAST
Fastenal Company
NEUTRAL $46.78B 38.16 32.7% 15.3% $40.45
CARR
Carrier Global Corporation
NEUTRAL $46.46B 33.81 10.0% 18.1% $54.1
DAL
Delta Air Lines, Inc.
NEUTRAL $45.99B 9.19 27.8% 7.9% $70.43
AXON
Axon Enterprise, Inc.
NEUTRAL $48.71B 192.21 10.0% 10.1% $613.14
GWW
W.W. Grainger, Inc.
NEUTRAL $44.46B 25.97 46.7% 9.7% $926.21

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

Date Insider Position Transaction Shares Value
2025-11-12 EASTMAN STEPHEN L Director Purchase 1,000 $40,816
2025-10-16 HSU HSENGHUNG SAM Director Purchase 1,000 $42,450
2025-10-14 ANCIUS MICHAEL J Director Option Exercise 2,000 $86,390
2025-08-15 DRAZKOWSKI WILLIAM JOSEPH Officer Sale 6,842 $333,012
2025-08-15 DRAZKOWSKI WILLIAM JOSEPH Officer Option Exercise 6,842 $129,998
2025-08-12 FLORNESS DANIEL LARS Chief Executive Officer Sale 84,612 $4,098,673
2025-08-12 FLORNESS DANIEL LARS Chief Executive Officer Option Exercise 84,612 $1,099,956
2025-08-08 SODERBERG JOHN LEWIS Officer Sale 34,612 $1,662,421
2025-08-08 WATTS JEFFERY MICHAEL President Sale 48,724 $2,341,202
2025-08-08 SODERBERG JOHN LEWIS Officer Option Exercise 34,612 $449,956
2025-08-08 WATTS JEFFERY MICHAEL President Option Exercise 48,724 $657,955
2025-07-24 BROERSMA ANTHONY PAUL Officer Sale 13,582 $650,931
2025-07-24 BROERSMA ANTHONY PAUL Officer Option Exercise 13,582 $206,170
2025-07-17 LISOWSKI SHERYL ANN Chief Financial Officer Sale 21,052 $951,832
2025-07-17 LISOWSKI SHERYL ANN Chief Financial Officer Option Exercise 21,052 $479,988
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
HOLD
13 analysts
Barclays
2025-11-13
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
Wolfe Research
2025-11-13
down
Peer Perform Underperform
Bernstein
2025-11-12
init
Underperform
Barclays
2025-10-14
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
Barclays
2025-10-08
init
Equal-Weight
JP Morgan
2025-09-04
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Baird
2025-08-07
up
Neutral Outperform
JP Morgan
2025-07-15
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Baird
2025-07-15
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Stephens & Co.
2025-07-15
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning FAST from our newsroom.

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