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GOOG Alphabet Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

NEUTRAL
GOOG Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ Communication Services Internet Content & Information
Current Price
$315.32
Analyst Target
$328.21
+4.1% Upside
52W High
$328.67
52W Low
$142.66

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AI Analysis

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Confidence Score
78%
Analysis Accuracy
Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) exhibits strong financial health with an exceptionally high Altman Z-Score (>3.0), indicating negligible distress risk, but a weak Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 suggests only stable, not robust, operational momentum. The company demonstrates elite profitability metrics, including a 32.23% profit margin and 35.45% ROE, alongside strong double-digit revenue and earnings growth. However, the stock trades at a significant premium to both the Graham Number ($85.4) and intrinsic value estimate ($298.54), with a P/E of 31.16 well above sector average (20.12), reflecting high market expectations. Bearish insider activity and a weak technical trend (10/100) further temper bullishness despite solid fundamentals and analyst strong_buy recommendation.

Key Strengths

Exceptionally high Altman Z-Score (>5.4 trillion) indicates near-zero bankruptcy risk and exceptional financial stability
Superior profitability: 32.23% net margin, 30.51% operating margin, and 35.45% ROE outperform sector averages
Strong growth momentum: 15.90% YoY revenue growth and 35.30% YoY earnings growth demonstrate sustained top- and bottom-line expansion
Consistently beats earnings estimates: 3 out of last 4 quarters beat, with a 23.94% average surprise over recent quarters
Low leverage profile: Debt/Equity ratio of 0.11 is well below sector average of 1.93, providing financial flexibility

Key Risks

Weak Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates suboptimal financial strength and potential deterioration in key operational metrics
Rich valuation: Current price of $315.32 exceeds both Graham Number ($85.4) and intrinsic value ($298.54), implying premium pricing
Bearish insider sentiment: 11 sell transactions totaling $37.77M in last 6 months with zero buys signals lack of confidence from insiders
Elevated P/E ratio of 31.16 vs sector average of 20.12 increases vulnerability to multiple contraction in a risk-off environment
Technical trend score of 10/100 indicates strong near-term bearish price momentum despite long-term gains
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$298.54
-5.3% below current price

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