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IREN IREN Limited - Fundamental Analysis

BEARISH
IREN Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ Financial Services Capital Markets
Current Price
$46.37
Analyst Target
$76.0
+63.9% Upside
52W High
$76.87
52W Low
$5.12

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Nov 15, 2025
Market cap
$13.79B
P/E
26.65
ROE
26.1%
Profit margin
76.0%
Debt/Equity
0.34
Dividend yield
N/A

AI Analysis

Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms

Confidence Score
65%
Analysis Accuracy
IREN Limited presents a deeply contradictory profile: explosive revenue growth of 355.4% YoY and a 3Y return of +1824.1% signal strong market momentum and potential disruption, yet fundamental red flags abound. The company reports a negative operating margin (-25.02%) and ROA of -0.01%, indicating severe profitability challenges despite a 75.99% profit margin—likely an accounting anomaly or non-operational gain. Valuation metrics are stretched, with a P/E of 26.65 and a Forward P/E of 136.38, far exceeding peers like BLK and SCHW, while insiders have sold $66.26M in shares recently, signaling concern at current levels. Analysts maintain a 'buy' recommendation with a $76.00 target, implying 64% upside, but the lack of earnings beats, negative operating leverage, and deteriorating price action (-31.8% over 1M) suggest significant risk in extrapolating recent performance.

Key Strengths

Exceptional revenue growth of 355.4% YoY, significantly outpacing sector average of 15.80%
High gross margin of 69.82%, indicating strong pricing power or low variable costs
Strong return on equity (ROE) of 26.12%, above sector average of 50.32% but inconsistent with other profitability metrics
Low debt/equity ratio of 0.34, suggesting conservative capital structure relative to sector average of 0.99
Exceptional 3-year total return of +1824.1%, reflecting strong investor sentiment and market adoption

Key Risks

Operating margin of -25.02% indicates core business operations are deeply unprofitable despite high gross and net margins
Forward P/E of 136.38 is extremely elevated, implying fragile growth expectations and high vulnerability to deceleration
Negative ROA of -0.01% suggests inefficient use of assets, conflicting with high ROE and raising balance sheet concerns
Insiders have sold $66.26M in stock with zero buys in the last 6 months, a strong bearish signal from management
Price has corrected sharply—down 31.8% over 1 month and 25.7% over 1 week—after a parabolic run, indicating potential bubble dynamics
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$28.5
-38.5% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
41
Moderate
Value
28
Future
54
Past
58
Health
66
Dividend
0
AI Verdict
IREN’s explosive growth and strong gross margins are overshadowed by deteriorating fundamentals, negative operating leverage, and extreme valuation multiples that are not supported by earnings quality or cash flow. While price momentum over 3Y and 1Y was extraordinary, the recent collapse over 1M and 1W, combined with insider selling and a Forward P/E of 136, suggests the market is repricing unsustainable expectations. Relative to peers like BLK and SCHW—profitable, growing, and trading at reasonable multiples—IREN appears speculative and overvalued.
Key drivers: Parabolic price appreciation unsupported by operating profitability, Extreme Forward P/E and insider selling signal overvaluation, Discrepancy between high reported net margin and negative operating margin
Confidence
68%
Value
28/100

IREN trades at a massive premium to sector peers on both earnings and sales, despite weaker operating profitability—PYPL trades at a P/E of 12.61 with positive growth, while SCHW and BLK deliver strong ROE with sustainable margins.

Positives
  • Price/Book of 4.56 is high but not uncommon for high-growth financial tech firms
  • Lower than average debt/equity (0.34 vs sector 0.99) improves risk-adjusted valuation appeal
Watchpoints
  • Forward P/E of 136.38 is drastically above sector average (23.87) and peer BLK (27.25)
  • Price/Sales of 20.03 is exceptionally high, suggesting premium pricing on revenue
Future
54/100

While revenue momentum is exceptional, the lack of earnings delivery, deteriorating short-term price trends (-31.8% over 1M), and absence of analyst earnings surprises suggest future growth is already priced in and vulnerable to disappointment.

Positives
  • Revenue growth of 355.4% YoY suggests strong product-market fit or market share gains
  • Analyst target of $76.00 implies strong conviction in continued growth trajectory
Watchpoints
  • Forward P/E of 136.38 requires flawless execution and sustained hypergrowth
  • No earnings growth data and zero earnings beats in last 4 quarters raise execution concerns
Past
58/100

Despite stellar long-term price performance and a high ROE, the company’s core operations are unprofitable, and the disconnect between net and operating margins raises serious questions about the quality and sustainability of past earnings.

Positives
  • 3-year return of +1824.1% reflects exceptional investor returns and market confidence
  • High ROE of 26.12% suggests effective equity reinvestment, at least on paper
Watchpoints
  • Operating margin of -25.02% contradicts high ROE and suggests non-operational profit sources
  • ROA of -0.01% indicates assets are not generating returns, undermining profitability claims
Health
66/100

IREN appears liquid and conservatively leveraged compared to peers like SCHW (D/E 1.00), but without cash flow or debt data, the true financial runway and ability to sustain losses remain uncertain.

Positives
  • Current ratio of 5.52 and quick ratio of 5.24 indicate strong short-term liquidity
  • Debt/equity of 0.34 is below sector average, reducing leverage risk
Watchpoints
  • Total cash and total debt data unavailable, limiting full solvency assessment
  • Negative operating margin implies ongoing cash burn unless offset by non-operating income
Dividend
0/100

IREN does not pay a dividend, which is common for high-growth firms, but in the absence of profitability, it raises concerns about capital allocation discipline and return of value to shareholders.

Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
  • No dividend policy in place, with a payout ratio of 0.00%
  • Lack of yield reduces appeal to income investors and signals reinvestment risk

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$46.37
Analyst Target
$76.0
Upside/Downside
+63.9%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for IREN and closest competitors.

Updated 2025-11-14
Company 5Y 3Y 1Y 6M 1M 1W
IREN
IREN Limited
Primary
+89.7% +1824.1% +348.9% +451.4% -31.8% -25.7%
ACGL
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
Peer
+175.6% +73.1% -2.8% -2.2% +3.3% +3.3%
PRU
Prudential Financial, Inc.
Peer
+80.8% +15.1% -10.6% +2.4% +3.9% +0.8%
AIG
American International Group, Inc.
Peer
+127.0% +37.3% +4.9% -6.8% -4.3% +1.1%
AMP
Ameriprise Financial, Inc.
Peer
+165.9% +47.8% -17.4% -12.0% -4.5% -0.4%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
26.65
Forward P/E
136.38
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
4.56
P/S Ratio
20.03
EV/Revenue
18.99
EV/EBITDA
56.34
Market Cap
$13.79B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 75.99%
Operating Margin -25.02%
Gross Margin 69.82%
ROE 26.12%
ROA -0.01%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +355.4%
Earnings Growth N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth N/A

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.34
Low debt
Current Ratio
5.52
Strong
Quick Ratio
5.24
Excellent
Cash/Share
$3.64

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-02-11
$N/A
2025-11-06
$1.08
+661.2% surprise
2025-08-28
$0.21
-2.5% surprise
2025-05-14
$0.11
-25.5% surprise

Financial Services Sector Comparison

Comparing IREN against 32 companies in the Financial Services sector (19 bullish, 12 neutral, 1 bearish)
P/E Ratio
26.65
This Stock
vs
22.34
Sector Avg
+19.3% (Premium)
Return on Equity (ROE)
26.12%
This Stock
vs
26.06%
Sector Avg
+0.2% (Above Avg)
Profit Margin
75.99%
This Stock
vs
25.09%
Sector Avg
+202.8% (Superior)
Debt to Equity
0.34
This Stock
vs
0.75
Sector Avg
-55.4% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
355.4%
This Stock
vs
20.1%
Sector Avg
+1668.4% (Fast Growth)
Current Ratio
5.52
This Stock
vs
1.41
Sector Avg
+291.0% (Stronger)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Company AI Rating Market Cap P/E ROE Profit Margin Price
IREN
IREN Limited
BEARISH $13.79B 26.65 26.1% 76.0% $46.37
ACGL
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
BULLISH $33.64B 8.67 17.8% 21.0% $92.52
PRU
Prudential Financial, Inc.
NEUTRAL $37.74B 14.68 8.5% 4.5% $107.16
AIG
American International Group, Inc.
NEUTRAL $42.28B 13.98 7.7% 12.0% $77.75
AMP
Ameriprise Financial, Inc.
BULLISH $42.68B 12.59 59.6% 19.6% $458.0

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

Date Insider Position Transaction Shares Value
2025-09-11 ROBERTS WILLIAM Chief Executive Officer Sale 1,000,000 $33,131,000
2025-09-11 ROBERTS DANIEL Chief Executive Officer Sale 1,000,000 $33,131,000
2025-07-01 ALFRED MICHAEL Director Stock Award 39,168 -
2025-07-01 PARASURAMAN SUNITA Director Stock Award 39,168 -
2025-07-01 GUZOWSKI CHRISTOPHER Director Stock Award 39,168 -
2025-07-01 ROBERTS WILLIAM Chief Executive Officer Stock Award 1,793,392 -
2025-07-01 NUCIFORA BELINDA Chief Financial Officer Stock Award 63,910 -
2025-07-01 ROBERTS DANIEL Chief Executive Officer Stock Award 1,793,392 -
2025-07-01 BARTHOLOMEW DAVID JAMES Director Stock Award 48,960 -
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
12 analysts
Canaccord Genuity
2025-11-10
main
Buy Buy
HC Wainwright & Co.
2025-11-07
main
Sell Sell
Cantor Fitzgerald
2025-11-07
main
Overweight Overweight
Cantor Fitzgerald
2025-11-03
main
Overweight Overweight
HC Wainwright & Co.
2025-10-29
down
Buy Sell
Macquarie
2025-10-22
main
Outperform Outperform
Cantor Fitzgerald
2025-10-14
main
Overweight Overweight
BTIG
2025-10-14
main
Buy Buy
Macquarie
2025-09-29
main
Outperform Outperform
JP Morgan
2025-09-26
down
Neutral Underweight