KDP Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
KDP Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
•
Consumer Defensive
•
Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
Current Price
$27.73
Analyst Target
$34.13
+23.1% Upside
52W High
$36.12
52W Low
$25.03
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
78%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals significant concerns: a weak Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates marginal financial health, while the Altman Z-Score of 75568910131.2, though astronomically high and technically 'safe', appears to be a data anomaly and should be treated with caution. The stock trades above both the Graham Number ($22.06) and intrinsic value estimate ($22.56) at $27.73, reflecting a 23.9x P/E, which is rich relative to its modest earnings growth and declining YoY EPS. Despite solid operating margins and revenue growth, weak profitability metrics like ROE (6.29%) and ROA (4.15%), deteriorating price performance, and negative insider activity signal overvaluation and declining confidence. Combined with a high payout ratio and bearish technical trend, the outlook is cautious.
Key Strengths
Strong operating margin of 23.11%, indicating pricing power and cost control
Solid revenue growth of 10.70% YoY, outpacing sector average of 4.58%
Gross margin of 54.76% reflects strong brand and low production costs
Dividend yield of 3.32% is attractive in current rate environment
Debt/Equity of 0.74 is below sector average of 2.13, suggesting conservative leverage
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health with potential deterioration
Current Ratio (0.62) and Quick Ratio (0.30) signal liquidity risk and inability to meet short-term obligations
ROE (6.29%) and ROA (4.15%) are significantly below sector averages, indicating poor capital efficiency
Insider selling of $14.72M in last 6 months reflects lack of confidence from executives and directors
Stock trades at a premium to Graham Number and intrinsic value with slowing earnings growth
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$22.3
-19.6% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional AI analysis across 5 key categories
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability, Growth & Financial Health
Detailed profit margins, ROE, debt ratios, and liquidity metrics
Sector Comparison & Peer Analysis
Compare KDP against industry averages and similar companies
Insider Trading & Analyst Ratings
Track insider transactions and Wall Street analyst recommendations